The company realized revenue of 995 million yuan in the first half of 2022,-11.78% of the same period last year, and net profit of 106 million yuan, 48.82% of the same period last year. The company's performance is under pressure in stages, and the follow-up with the gradual recovery of consumers is expected to benefit from the growth of the smart headphone industry and the trend of brand concentration in the short and medium term, and will continue to promote brands to go out to sea and expand hearing aids / hearing aids and other products in the medium to long term. In 2022, due to the pressure on the company's performance stage caused by repeated epidemic situations at home and abroad, we downgraded the company's 2022 EPS 2023 forecast to 0.27max 0.34 yuan (the original forecast was 0.74 pound 0.93 yuan), added the 2024 forecast to 0.37 yuan, and gave the target price 14 yuan, downgraded to "overweight" rating.
The domestic and foreign epidemic situation repeatedly + the demand weakens, the company 2022H1 performance is under pressure. The company's 2022H1 realized revenue of 995 million yuan, year-on-year-11.78%, net profit of 106 million yuan, year-on-year-48.82%, and non-return net profit of 88 million yuan, year-on-year-41.47%. On a quarterly basis, the company's Q1/Q2 revenue was 478 million yuan, an increase of-9.04%, 14.16%, and net profit of 0.44 million, respectively, an increase of-39.27%, 43.49% over the same period last year. In terms of business, 2022H1's headphone business revenue is from-9.79% to 665 million yuan, multimedia speaker business is from-12.05% to 297 million yuan, and car audio business is from-44.59% to 5 million yuan. In the short and medium term, the company will benefit from the growth of the intelligent audio industry and the improvement of brand concentration. in the long run, the development of overseas sales channels and the layout of multi-category products such as hearing aids / hearing aids are expected to drive a new round of growth of the company.
The gross profit margin of headset and speaker business decreased compared with the same period last year, and the inventory water level increased. 2022H1 gross profit margin year-on-year-2.20pcts to 31.58%, of which the company's main headphone business (66.83%) year-on-year-3.20pcts to 30.72%, speaker business (29.86%) year-on-year-1.64pcts to 32.5%. From a quarterly point of view, the gross profit margin of 2022Q1/Q2 is 29.65%, 33.37%, respectively, compared with the same period last year-3.61/-0.87pct. Affected by the increase in labor costs and overseas exchange losses, the company's 2021H1 management + finance + sales expense rate + 2.34pcts to 12.71%, R & D expense rate year-on-year + 0.33pct to 5.85%. In terms of inventory, as of the end of 22Q1/Q2, the company's inventory reached 546 million yuan and Q2 compared with + 0.37%, mainly due to weak market demand for smart speakers and smart wear, resulting in an increase in inventory levels.
Firmly promote technology + brand layout, younger operation + channel expansion to improve competitiveness. (1) Rapid iteration of products / technologies to build differentiation advantages. The iterative speed of the product array of smart headphones is significantly faster than that of other audio brands, and based on its deep accumulation in acoustics, the company is in an industry leading position in core functions such as active noise reduction and sound quality optimization. (2) three-dimensional brand strategy + user profile distinction + layout of professional audio to achieve differentiated brand positioning. The company adopts a three-dimensional brand strategy to cover high, middle and low-end products at different prices, to create a younger brand, to actively distinguish different user portraits (such as Pikachu series, Marvel series, etc.) through multi-IP, multi-category products, to meet the needs of different users, while laying out professional audio fields (such as educational headphones, auxiliary headphones) to achieve differential competition. (3) practice the concept of younger management / marketing and marketization to enhance the competitiveness of the company. Since 2016, the company has gradually promoted young backbones from within to expand the new business layout of headphones, and the products focus more on the needs of young consumers; at the same time, the marketing end actively carries out lead sales through new media such as Douyin Live, JD.com Live, Little Red Book and other new media. (4) at present, overseas sales account for about 33.5%, which will be expanded on overseas lines in the future. In the future, based on the existing popularity and cooperation with overseas headphone brands, the company is expected to introduce professionals to increase the sales of headphone products on overseas lines, so as to keep pace with the domestic / overseas markets.
Risk factors: lower-than-expected risk of technology iteration and market demand; risk of rising raw material prices, energy prices and labor costs.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating: the company is a leading and world-renowned third-party independent audio brand, which began to enter the smart headset market and achieve rapid landing and iteration in 2018. Since 2022, due to repeated domestic and foreign epidemics leading to pressure on the company's performance phase, we have lowered the company's 2022 EPS forecast to 0.270.34 yuan in 2023 (the original forecast is 0.74 pound 0.93 yuan), and increased the 2024 forecast to 0.37 yuan. With reference to the company's PE level in the past two years, the average PE-Band is 39 times, we give the 2023 target PE=40 times, corresponding to the target price of 14 yuan (originally 20 yuan), downgraded to "overweight" rating.