Saisheng Pharmaceutical (06600.HK): Commercializing core varieties, experimenting with commercialization of bright new drugs

中金公司 · Aug 22, 2022 15:26 · Researches

1H22 业绩符合我们预期

公司公布1H22 业绩：收入14.75 亿元，同比增长11%；归母净利润5.32亿元，同比下滑15%，主因为投资公允价值变动及相关合作品种无形资产减值，带来了一次性非现金调整，剔除后核心业务净利润6.53 亿元，同比增长约5%，符合我们预期。

发展趋势

存量核心产品日达仙维持增长。1H22 公司收入环比增长24%，存量核心产品日达仙在国家集采落标、疫情影响及过去2 年较高基数的背景下维持增长，1H22 取得收入11.0 亿元，同比增长7.0%，持续为公司提供现金流。我们认为这一增长受益于公司以临床研究支持的产品生命周期管理以及GTP 模式的进一步推广；截至2022 年6 月，公司GTP 平台贡献日达仙销量超过72%，覆盖超过800 家DTP 药房，我们认为该平台有助于公司其他新品种的上市后放量。存量业务中，除自有品种外，1H22 公司合作推广收入1.72亿元，与去年同期基本持平。

持续研发转型，合作新药尝试商业化。2022 年8 月，公司自美纳里尼（Menarini）引进高级抗生素Vaborem，目前公司合作管线包含9 个分子，其中：1）那西妥单抗已在博鳌及天津先行区小范围尝试商业化，1H22 收入约2420 万元，公司预计该产品的上市申请将于2022 年内获国家药监局正式批准；2）Vibativ 于2021 年9 月递交上市申请，我们预计有望在2H22-2023年获批；3）其他后期品种Vaborem、Omurtamab 及RRx-001 正在推进/筹备关键性临床。此外，公司引进了业界资深的毛力博士及朱凌宇博士分别担任首席医学官和首席业务发展官，以更好推动公司管线进展。

核心业务盈利能力基本稳定。1H22 公司毛利率77%，同比下降1.7ppt，主因供应链受地缘政治及通胀影响；1H22 销售费用2.8 亿元，销售费用率19.0%，与去年同期（18.9%）基本持平；1H22 管理费用0.95 亿元，管理费用率6.5%，与去年同期（6.6%）基本持平；1H22 研发开支约0.5 亿元，同比增长27%。除核心业务外，由于近期生物科技行业融资缩紧，公司投资合作的一家biotech 企业出现再融资困难，造成公允价值亏损约0.81 亿元，此外1H22 公司汇兑亏损约0.58 亿元，对净利润造成负面影响。

盈利预测与估值

维持2022 年和2023 年盈利预测不变。当前股价对应2022/2023 年4.5 倍/4.2倍市盈率。我们采用SOTP 法估值，维持跑赢行业评级，但由于港股医药小盘股估值中枢下移，我们下调目标价18.5%至11.00 港元对应6.7 倍2022年市盈率和6.3 倍2023 年市盈率，较当前股价有48.6%的上行空间。

风险

产品格局恶化；药品集采影响；新药研发不及预期。

1H22 performance is in line with our expectations

The company announced 1H22 results: revenue was 1.475 billion yuan, an increase of 11% over the same period last year; net profit from home was 532 million yuan, down 15% from the same period last year, mainly due to changes in the fair value of investment and the impairment of intangible assets of related cooperation varieties, resulting in an one-time non-cash adjustment. Excluding core business net profit of 653 million yuan, an increase of about 5% over the same period last year, in line with our expectations.

Trend of development

Stock core product Ridaxian maintained growth. 1H22's revenue increased by 24% month-on-month, and the stock core product, Ridaxian, maintained growth under the background of the national collection, the impact of the epidemic, and the high base in the past two years. 1H22 earned 1.1 billion yuan in revenue, an increase of 7.0% over the same period last year, and continued to provide cash flow for the company. We believe that this growth benefits from the company's clinical research-supported product life cycle management and the further promotion of the GTP model; as of June 2022, the company's GTP platform contributed more than 72% of Ridaxian sales, covering more than 800 DTP pharmacies, and we believe the platform will contribute to the post-market volume of other new varieties of the company. In the stock business, except for its own varieties, 1H22's cooperative promotion income is 172 million yuan, which is basically the same as that of the same period last year.

Continuous R & D transformation, cooperative new drugs try to commercialize. In August 2022, the company introduced advanced antibiotic Vaborem from Menarini. At present, the company's cooperative pipeline contains 9 molecules, of which: 1) Naxituximab has been commercialized on a small scale in Boao and Tianjin, with 1H22 revenue of about 24.2 million yuan. The company expects that the application for listing of this product will be formally approved by the State Drug Administration in 2022. 2) Vibativ submitted its listing application in September 2021, and we expect to be approved by 2H22-2023; 3) other late-stage varieties Vaborem, Omurtamab and RRx-001 are advancing / preparing for critical clinical trials. In addition, the company has introduced experienced Dr. Mao Li and Dr. Zhu Lingyu as Chief Medical Officer and Chief Business Development Officer respectively to better promote the progress of the company's pipeline.

The profitability of core business is basically stable. 1H22's gross profit margin was 77%, down from the same period last year (1.7ppt), mainly because the supply chain was affected by geopolitics and inflation; 1H22 sales expenses of 280 million yuan, sales expense rate of 19.0%, basically the same as the same period last year (18.9%); 1H22 management expenses of 95 million yuan, management expenses rate of 6.5%, basically the same as the same period last year (6.6%); 1H22 R & D expenditure of about 50 million yuan, an increase of 27% over the same period last year. In addition to the core business, due to the recent tightening of financing in the biotechnology industry, a biotech company the company invested in encountered refinancing difficulties, resulting in a fair value loss of about 81 million yuan. In addition, 1H22 lost about 58 million yuan on exchange, which had a negative impact on net profit.

Profit forecast and valuation

Keep profit forecasts for 2022 and 2023 unchanged. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.5 times 2023 / 4.2 times 2023. We use the SOTP valuation method to maintain the outperform industry rating, but due to the downward valuation center of Hong Kong pharmaceutical small-cap stocks, we cut our target price by 18.5% to HK $11.00 corresponding to 6.7 times 2022 price-to-earnings ratio and 6.3 times 2023 price-to-earnings ratio, which has 48.6% upside from the current share price.

Risk

The deterioration of product pattern; the impact of drug collection; new drug research and development is not as expected.

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赛生药业(06600.HK)：核心品种商业化亮眼 新药尝试商业化

Saisheng Pharmaceutical (06600.HK): Commercializing core varieties, experimenting with commercialization of bright new drugs

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赛生药业(06600.HK)：核心品种商业化亮眼新药尝试商业化