Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, will make a speech at the annual meeting of central banks around the world on Friday, the Hong Kong-based Wande News Agency reported. Recently, commodity interest rate hikes have fallen, inflation data in the United States have eased, and the market has high expectations for the Fed to reduce the rate hike, but Fed officials continue to correct market expectations, and the guiding significance of Powell's speech is self-evident. The market is holding its breath.

Lou Crandall, chief economist of the Wrightson ICAP, said: "the core message of Powell's speech in Jackson Hole will be the Fed's firm determination to reduce inflation, although they know that the short-term growth outlook will be weaker than they hoped. "

Lou Crandall added that the previously released minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed this, but it was ignored in other headlines about the eventual slowdown in the pace of interest rate increases. According to the minutes of the meeting, Fed officials "recognize that policy tightening may slow economic growth, but they believe that a return to 2% inflation is the key to sustained maximum employment." "

Lou Crandall believes that Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting is a better place to express his views than the minutes of the Fed meeting. In a weak economy and weak labour market, the determination to take a stand will be "the most important" because "inflation has reached a level where the Fed has no choice but to risk raising interest rates".

Concerns about the coming recession eased with a strong jobs report in July and relatively strong consumption data. Since march, the fed has pushed up its federal funds rate to 2.25% Mel 2.5%. Fed watchers are debating whether the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.75 basis points for the third time in a row at its next meeting on September 20-21.

Economists are divided over whether Powell will provide any guidance on the scale of Jackson Hole's expected interest rate hike in September.

Some economists believe that Powell is not expected to give a clear signal of how much interest rates must rise in order to reduce inflation.

Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, said Powell would try to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September. "I think Powell will say it passionately and prove that being really tough now is good for jobs, markets and growth in the long run. "

Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpoint, said Powell was expected to take a broader perspective rather than focus on the next policy meeting. "if I were him, I wouldn't focus my speech on whether to raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points in September. "

Stephen Stanley expects Powell to emphasize the idea of "pause and keep interest rates unchanged", or rather, to give clues that there will be a long time gap between the last rate hike and the first rate cut.

Although economists are divided on what Powell will do, the view on what Powell will not do is clearer.

Mr Stephen Stanley believes that Mr Powell will not send a "message that inflation will last longer than expected". "I don't think it's wise for any Fed official to stand in front of people and say that inflation will last longer than you think," Stephen Stanley said. Because the central bank wants to lower the public's long-term inflation expectations. "

Lou Crandall believes that before Powell speaks, the stock market will have a "cold day as hell".

Tim Duy, chief US economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said: "there is growing suspicion that the Fed will declare victory when inflation reaches 3.5 per cent, so in a sense, Powell's message will be designed to dispel that suspicion. "

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist of CIBC World Markets, says there is a way to achieve a soft landing, which is to significantly reduce inflation in 2023 without a recession.