The offline advantage is solid, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Ximai Food 2022Q2 realized revenue of 282 million yuan, an increase of 11.22% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 18 million yuan, down 32.16% from the same period last year. Due to the influence of the epidemic and the cold food oat industry entering the adjustment period, we downgrade the profit forecast for 2022-2024. It is estimated that the return net profit from 2022 to 2024 is 1.05,1.16,1.36 (- 0.24) million yuan, and EPS is 0.47 (- 0.08), 0.52 (- 0.11) and 0.61 (- 0.11) yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 29.0,26.4,22.4 times. The proportion of the company's online channels is gradually increasing, and the advantages of offline channels are stable, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The performance of new hot food products is outstanding, and the revenue is growing steadily.
2022Q2 specific point of view: (1) sub-product point of view: 2022Q2 pure oatmeal steady growth; compound oat rapid growth; cold food oat decline. The performance of new hot food products is bright, with rapid growth; cold food continues the decline of the market, still declining. (2) from the perspective of sub-channels, the growth of income at end B is faster, and the growth of online e-commerce is faster. The company actively promotes new products, which has a good response and a high repurchase rate. 2022H1 has developed and upgraded 16 projects and launched 34 new SKU products. Ximai food market share continues to increase, hot food share of the industry's leading position is solid. Looking to the future, with the wide coverage of offline channels and the development of online channels, we expect the company's revenue to grow by about 15% in 2022.
The decline in net interest rate is mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin and the increase in premium rates.
The net interest rate of 2022Q2 decreased by 4.1pct to 6.4% compared with the same period last year, mainly because the sales expense rate increased to 32.0%, and the management fee increased to 7.6%. The main reasons are: (1) the online live broadcast fee of 2022Q2 is increased, and the new product is still in the promotion period; (2) the establishment of a big health company in Nanjing. 2022Q2 reduced its gross profit margin by 1.6pct to 41.3%. Specifically: (1) the gross profit margin of pure oats was basically flat; the gross profit margin of composite oatmeal decreased slightly due to the promotion of new products; and the gross profit margin of cold oatmeal was stable compared with the previous month. (2) from the perspective of sub-channels: the B-end gross profit margin is stable; because the cost investment is large, the online gross profit margin is slightly lower. Looking forward to 2022H2, raw material costs are expected to rise moderately, and the company can alleviate the cost pressure by improving economies of scale and optimizing expenses.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risks, new product promotion risks less than expected, food safety risks.