Items:
The company released its mid-2022 report. 2022H1 realized operating income of 1.726 billion yuan, YoY-1.01%; net profit of 68 million yuan, YoY-39.21%; deduction of non-return net profit of 50 million yuan, YoY-44.78%.
Basic earnings per share is 0.18 yuan.
Comments:
Q2 business improvement, revenue and profit increase twist. The company has a single Q2 revenue of 1.046 billion, YoY+1.18%,QoQ+53.97%; returns a net profit of 69 million, and YoY-3.11%, turns negative to positive compared with Q1. In the first half of the year, due to the repeated influence of the international environment and epidemic situation, sales declined, revenue and return net profit declined, and Q2's performance picked up compared with Q1. 2022H1 achieved sales revenue of 1.223 million at home and abroad, accounting for 71.93%, 28.07%, 7.49% and 17.35%, respectively. Among them, domestic retail channel income 783 million yuan, YoY-13.07%, project channel income 440 million yuan, YoY+4.38%; overseas sales pressure ahead, bathtubs, hardware, bathroom cabinets and other categories export sales to achieve a substantial increase compared with the same period last year.
The decrease of output and the increase of cost affect the gross margin, and the expense rate decreases slightly during the period. The company's 2022H1 gross profit margin is 24.45% (YoY-3.74pct) and net profit margin is 3.66% (YoY-3.38pct). The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the decrease in production affected by underemployment in the current period and the increase in costs caused by the rise in fuel costs. In terms of 2022H1 expense rate, the company's sales expense rate was reduced by 0.09pct to 8.21% compared with the same period last year due to the reduction of advertising fees; the management fee rate was reduced by 0.17pct to 7.23% due to the reduction of consulting fees; the financial expense rate was reduced by 0.70pct to-0.45% due to the reduction of exchange losses; and the R & D expense rate was reduced by 0.30pct to 4.15% due to changes in R & D projects.
The proportion of engineering channels has been further increased, and production capacity construction has been carried out in an orderly manner. (1) at the channel end, the company has built a marketing network system dominated by offline distribution in China, supplemented by engineering channels, e-commerce, overall home decoration and Internet home decoration, to open stores in the territory, promote the combination of online control and offline store support, and constantly improve the market layout and enhance the brand image. As of June 30, 2022, the company had a total of 2056 stores in China (a net decrease of 21 from the end of 2021). In terms of engineering channels, the company is actively expanding new customers, and the proportion of engineering channels in total revenue has increased from 22.58% in 2021 to 25.87% in the first half of the year.
The company continues to open up the international market, the company's foreign income during the reporting period 477 million yuan, YoY+17.35%. (2) on the production side, the annual output of 800000 pieces of intelligent bathroom production line project is under construction, and the investment in the construction of the new Goldman Sachs Group ceramic tile production line is increasing. in the future, with the release of the company's overall sanitary capacity, the company's overall sanitary revenue is expected to achieve rapid growth.
Take into account the cost pressure and the possibility of increased competition in the industry, adjust the profit forecast. The macro-environmental pressure of 22H1 is prominent, and the company's performance is declining. Considering the follow-up costs and the uncertainty of industry competition, we adjust the company's profit forecast. The expected return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 1.96,2.37 and 300 million yuan respectively (the previous value is 3.95,5.00,661 million yuan), corresponding to the current market value PE of 15,12,10 times respectively. Based on the DCF model, the company is given a target price of 10.0 yuan per share, corresponding to 20 times PE in 2022 and 16 times PE in 23 years.
Risk tips: the real estate market is not as expected, repeated epidemic, exchange rate fluctuations led to substantial fluctuations in profits.