Homing net profit + 90.2% compared with the same period last year, maintaining "buy" rating
The company reported on August 19 that 2022H1 achieved revenue of 10.6 billion yuan, + 93.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, + 90.2% EPS 0.38 yuan, in line with the company's performance forecast.
We maintain 2022-2024 EPS for 0.56x61xpx 0.67 yuan forecast, reference comparable company 2022PE average is 11.6 times (Wind consensus expectation), we think that the company is rich in soil reserves, major shareholders help the company activate assets to reflect the group's support to the company, we think that the company's reasonable PE in 2022 is 13 times, the target price is 7.28yuan (the previous value 6.72yuan, 2022 PE12x), maintain the "buy" rating.
Settlement volume superimposed stock assets invigorated, performance increased significantly
The settlement scale of 2022H1 real estate development increased significantly, with revenue rising 119.4 per cent year-on-year. Although the decline in the industry's profit margin led to a gross profit margin of-8.0pct to 15.2 per cent, property development profits still grew by 44.1 per cent year-on-year. During the period, the company transferred the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Beijing to the parent company at a cost of 1.08 billion yuan, driving investment income and asset disposal income to reach 760 million. In addition, due to the fair value change profit and loss of 140 million of the Jing'an complex project in Shanghai, promote the high growth of home net profit. During the period, the gross profit margin only decreased by 1.5pct to 20.0% compared with the whole of 21 years. We believe that the impact of the gross profit margin decline on performance is basically over. The parent company helps the company invigorate its assets to reflect the support of the group, and help the company to develop steadily in the future.
Development sales decline, goods value is abundant waiting to recover
Due to the declining prosperity of the industry, the sales scale of 2022H1 has declined. During the period, the company achieved a sales area of 50.2 million square meters, with a sales contract of 11.67 billion yuan, which was-54% and-43% respectively compared with the same period last year. In terms of product types, the sales contracts for residential and commercial products reached 10.66 billion yuan respectively, which was-46% and 9% respectively over the same period last year. In terms of holding and operating business, affected by the epidemic, revenue from the property rental and operation sectors decreased by 3% and 47% respectively compared with the same period last year. As of 2022H1, the total construction area of the company's unsettled projects is about 15.906 million square meters, which can be developed for 9 years based on 21-year sales area. Therefore, we believe that when the fundamentals of the industry enter the repair period, the company has the flexibility of scale.
Take the land prudently, highlight the financing advantage
2022H1 is cautious in its investment, adding one new project and acquiring a 34% stake in Tianjin Lingdang Pavilion project with China Overseas Land & Investment through acquisition and acquisition. In the second half of the year, the company plans to expand its investment model, focusing on rental housing, urban renewal, mergers and acquisitions and so on. The company's short-term debt repayment pressure rebounded slightly. By the end of 2022H1, the company's net debt ratio, asset-liability ratio excluding accounts received in advance, and short-term debt coverage were 156%, 66% and 86%, respectively. However, the financing channel of the company is unobstructed. In the first half of the year, domestic bonds issued a total of 5.23 billion yuan, + 9% compared with the same period last year, including 1.14 billion yuan in winning votes, 3.17 billion yuan in corporate bonds and 5.23 billion yuan in ABS9.2, with an interest rate range of 2.69% Mel 3.53%, which is further lower than the 2021H2 issuing rate. As a local state-owned enterprise deeply ploughing commercial real estate operation, the company's financing advantage can be demonstrated.
Risk tips: epidemic situation, industry policy, industry downward, fair value change profit and loss risk.
