Event: on August 20, 2022, the company disclosed its semi-annual report of 2022, in which 2022H1 achieved a revenue of 632 million yuan (YOY14.55%) and a net profit of 46.28 million yuan (YOY-41.82%).
Among them, 22Q2 achieved revenue of 282 million yuan (YOY11.22%) and net profit of 18.03 million yuan (YOY-32.14%).
The income grows steadily, the profit stage is under pressure. From the perspective of 22H1, although the epidemic is repeated, the company has benefited from giving full play to the advantages of the whole industry chain and building a new marketing network system with efficient integration online and offline, and revenue has increased by 14.55% compared with the same period last year. However, both upstream costs and downstream consumption are under pressure, resulting in gross profit margin lower 3.82pct year-on-year, so gross margin growth of only 5.26% year-on-year. On the expense side, the period expense rate increased by 4.76pct compared with the same period last year, in which the sales expense rate increased by 5.10pct compared with the same period last year (mainly due to the relatively less investment in live broadcasting in the first half of last year), and the management expense rate increased by 0.53pct compared with the same period last year, so the homing net profit margin decreased by 7.09pct compared with the same period last year, corresponding to a final homing net profit of 46.28 million yuan (YOY-41.82%).
22Q2 alone has a gross profit margin, with revenue up 11.22 per cent year-on-year, but gross profit rose 7.06 per cent year-on-year due to lower gross profit margins (1.61pct). In addition, during the period, the expense rate increased 4.61pct compared with the same period last year (mainly due to the increase in sales expense rate compared with the same period last year 5.38pct), so the return net profit margin decreased 4.08pct compared with the same period last year, corresponding to the final return net profit of 18.03 million yuan.
To consolidate the advantages of Chunyan, new products such as oat + have become a new engine for growth. In the first half of 2022, the company gives full play to the advantages of the whole industry chain, consolidates the advantages of Chunyan and optimizes the existing product structure, and actively promotes a series of new products such as organic big oats and oats + to meet the diversified consumer needs of consumers. let the new products become a new engine for growth. In the first half of 2022, the company developed and upgraded 16 projects and launched 34 SKU.
In terms of specific products, (1) 2022H1 pure oatmeal series maintained its original advantages (including green oatmeal series and organic oatmeal series) with revenue of 305 million yuan (YOY9.79%) and gross profit margin decreased by 2.34pct compared with the same period last year. (2) the composite oatmeal series benefited from the rapid growth of oatmeal plus series (mainly including Western Australian Sunshine Milk Oatmeal Series, balanced Nourishing Oatmeal Series, Middle-aged nutritious Oatmeal Series, Oat + Oatmeal Series, cereal Series, etc.), realized revenue of 231 million yuan (YOY46.08%) and reduced gross profit margin by 5.04pct compared with the same period last year. (3) the revenue of cold food oatmeal series (mainly including wheat crispy fruit extract series, baked oatmeal series, oat crisp series, light meal substitute cereal series, etc.) achieved 52.13 million yuan (YOY-35.55%) (mainly due to the fact that cold food oatmeal entered the recuperation period after rapid growth in the past two years, 2022H1 sales declined), and the gross profit margin decreased 4.44pct compared with the same period last year.
We believe that the basic plate of the company's Chunyan series products is stable, while oat + series products drive the rapid growth of composite oatmeal, and we are optimistic that the follow-up company's hot food series products will continue to maintain steady growth.
We will continue to consolidate the advantages of offline channels and actively promote the new retail model of online and offline integration. (1) continue to dig deep into the offline channels and strive to create areas with consumption potential. Actively expand the penetration of key cities in the entry retail format, develop and operate dealers in snack shops, community convenience stores and fresh supermarkets, and explore new cooperation models. (2) actively develop online channels and build a new marketing network system with efficient integration of online and offline. Continue to carry out fine operation on Tmall and JD.com platforms, carry out brand alliance with well-known brands in other industries, increase brand exposure, and achieve certain results. (3) the company continues to expand new retail business, strengthen O2O home business, cooperate with community group buying platforms, and achieve a substantial increase in new retail sales compared with the same period last year. We believe that with the continuous enrichment and expansion of the company's channels, it will further bring more space for the growth of product distribution.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the operating income of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.857 billion yuan, and the net profit of return to the mother will be 0.90, 1.17 and 143 million, respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.40, 0.52 and 0.64 per share, respectively. Considering that the company has made great efforts to promote new products such as "Oat +" series this year and drives the rapid growth of compound oats, we think that as the company's new products such as "Oat +" series continue to increase in quantity and the corresponding market style is more mature, it will bring greater contribution to the overall revenue. Combined with the comparable company valuation, the company is given a PE valuation of 25-30 times in 2023, with a reasonable value range of 13.00-15.60 yuan per share, and continue to be given a "better than the market" rating.
Risk hint. (1) food safety risks, (2) intensified market competition, (3) the expansion of new products and new channels is not as expected.