Event: on August 18, the company disclosed that in 2022, H1 realized revenue of 495 million yuan, an increase of 8%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, a decrease of 9%. In a single quarter, 2022Q2 revenue was 242 million yuan, a decrease of 4.35%, a decrease of 6.53%, and a net profit of 58 million, an increase of 34.88% and a decrease of 1.09%. Despite facing unfavorable factors such as rising raw material prices, multi-point spread of the epidemic, and weak consumer electronics market, the company has taken a series of measures such as saving energy and reducing consumption, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, optimizing processes and adjusting product pricing models. Q2 profitability has improved against the trend. Q1/Q2 gross profit margin 32% lemmings 38% gamut Q2 net interest rate 17% picks 24%.
The short-term pressure on the results in the second quarter is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, rising prices of raw materials and weak demand for mobile phones, which is expected to improve in the second half of the year. (1) quantity, price and profit: according to our estimates, Q1/Q2 shipments are expected to be 520x420 tons, with a price of 49.58 million yuan per ton and a net profit of 914,000 yuan per ton; it is estimated that 1000 tons will be shipped in the second half of the year, with annual shipments of about 2000 tons and a net profit of 240 million yuan in 2022. (2) Q2 faces multiple pressures from the impact of the epidemic, rising prices of raw materials and weak demand for mobile phones: 2022Q2 shipped 286 million mobile phones worldwide, with a month-on-month comparison of-8.68% and 8.95%; the average price of 2022Q2 nickel was 21.95 million yuan per ton, with a month-on-month ratio of + 69.14% and 14.03%. With the steady progress of national regular epidemic prevention and the orderly recovery of production and operation, the second half of the year will also usher in the peak season of traditional mobile phone consumption. Domestic mobile phone shipments in June were 28.02 million, with a month-on-month improvement of + 35%. The performance is expected to improve in the second half of the year.
Increase R & D investment, silver-coated copper powder and nano-silicon powder will provide considerable impetus for the follow-up development of the company.
In 2022, H1 invested 30 million yuan in R & D, + 55.37% over the same period last year. The company has built a pilot production line of silver-coated copper powder to continuously promote product stability testing, deeply tap the potential of reducing cost and increasing efficiency in large-scale production, and provide effective technical support for follow-up large-scale mass production of silver-coated copper powder; in the field of nano-silicon powder for anode materials of lithium battery, through continuous process optimization of the production process, the per unit yield efficiency of silicon powder has been effectively improved.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 12.7,14.6 and 1.7 billion yuan respectively, with a net profit of 240 million yuan, 321 million yuan and 382 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the PE level of 70.6, 52.8 and 44.3 X at the current price, respectively. The company is a leading manufacturer of high-end metal powders for electronic applications in the world. In the short term, it is expected to benefit from the improvement of downstream demand, the improvement of shipments and the gradual improvement of profitability through a number of measures, long-term optimistic that PVD milling technology is the world's leading and broad expansion space, the gradual expansion of new capacity, and continue to give "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, downstream customer concentration risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, macroeconomic fluctuation risk.