Edited by Guotai Junan Securities: "10-year Singles Day, New Trends, New changes"

1. A panoramic review of the whole network of double 11 in 2018

The whole network: sales exceeded 300 billion, and the average unit price continued to rise.

According to the statistics of the star map, the sales of the whole network reached 314.3 billion yuan this year, an increase of 23.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate declined. The total number of parcels reached 1.34 billion, down 2.9 percent from the same period last year, with an average unit price of 235 yuan, up 27.5 percent from 184 yuan last year and the highest since 2014.

• BABA:Covering the whole scene, physical consumption is upgraded to experiential consumption.

In 2018, the transaction volume of Taobao Tmall on Singles' Day was 213.5 billion yuan, + 27% compared with the same period last year. After 10 years of development and evolution, from low-price drive to quality upgrading, from physical consumption to full-scene consumption, the online and offline price gap continues to narrow, and the double 11 growth center has moved down in the expected range under the background of the decline in the growth rate of the whole network.

However, compared with 2017, the stimulating effect of consumption brought about by double 11 has been significantly strengthened. The growth rate of double 11 in 2017 is 39%, which is a big difference from the 49% growth rate of Q3 Tmall GMV in 2017, while the growth rate of 27% in 2018 is close to that of Q3 Tmall GMV growth rate of 30%.

• SUNING:Full channel, multi-category force, release flow potential energy.

During the double 11 period in 2018, SUNING's omni-channel orders were + 132% compared with the same period last year, of which the number of retail cloud stores reached 1666, with sales + 3,308% compared with the same period last year.

During the Singles Day holiday, more than 50 million people went shopping in SUNING's store, SUNING's shop provided neighborhood services for 5 million people, SUNING Hotel provided services for more than 100000 people, and more than 200000 people from SUNING Cinema entered the studio to watch movies. SUNING Square provides shopping for 15 million people.

• JD.com:Multiple formats work together, and the membership system expands with the help of the strength.

JD.com launched the Global good things Festival in 2017, advancing and lengthening the front, effectively avoiding the fierce competition on Singles Day. From November 1 to November 11, the cumulative turnover of JD.com 's 11.11 Global good things Festival reached 159.8 billion yuan, an increase of 25.7 percent over the previous year's 127.1 billion yuan.

This year's Singles' Day, JD.com 's offline activities include innovative formats such as JD.com convenience Store, JD.com unmanned supermarket, JD.com House, as well as innovative stores jointly operated by JD.com and Lenovo. JD.com borrows the double 11 to expand the army to pay members, the shopping interface realizes a thousand people thousand faces accurate recommendation.

• XIAOMI:Online and offline integration, all-channel, full-product implementation of new retail.

XIAOMI double 11 finally the new retail omni-channel payment exceeded 5.215 billion yuan, online to maintain the advantage of development at the same time, the new offline retail integration effect is remarkable, XIAOMI House sales are hot.

• Pinduoduo:Take part in the war in a low profile and compete with differences.

Pinduoduo launched activities such as grabbing coupons, opening treasure boxes, super lists and clearance carnival on Singles Day in 2018, which lasted from October 28th to November 16th. Different from Tmall, JD.com and 3C, Pinduoduo mainly focuses on clothing and household department stores.

2. Ten years of ups and downs, several changes

The double 11 carnival in 2018 has been extended to the full channel and scene, with low-line traffic and social traffic at the traffic end becoming the new power end, and the scene end has moved from physical consumption to full-scene consumption and omni-channel integration, and the post-90s generation has become the backbone of the consumer group.

• Traffic side:The flow dividend has been exhausted, and social play is favored.

With the traditional e-commerce dividend exhausted and Wechat ecological boom, social e-commerce came into being and grew rapidly. Unlike traditional e-commerce, social e-commerce weakens search and focuses on sharing, which is a way of discovery shopping. Consumers can act as the main body of information release, share information with more consumers and stimulate other people's interest in shopping.

• Consumers:The post-90s generation has become the backbone, leading category change and scene upgrading.

The proportion of post-90s consumption in the Ali double 11 carnival has increased year by year, reaching 43% in 2017 and further rising to 46% in 2018. Young people lead the structural change of consumer categories and the upgrading of the scene.

• Scene end:Full scene layout, covering all channels

Double 11 has gradually upgraded from low-price promotion in the past to brand and quality-driven, and further developed into experience and service-driven in 2018. BABA United system covers clothing, food, housing, transportation and other major aspects. on the one hand, the growth rate of physical consumption has entered a new normal, on the other hand, the integration mode of service and experience is gradually developing, and the competition will be extended to a broader consumption scene in the future.

3. Risk factors

• Economic growth is slowing, curbing alternative consumption

• Internet policy is becoming stricter

• The competition between domestic brands and foreign brands has intensified.