Event: the company announced its 2022 half-year results, in line with expectations. 1) 2022H1 realized revenue of 4.1 billion yuan (yoy+31.9%), net profit of 310 million yuan (+ 28.5%), and non-return net profit of 300 million yuan (+ 31.3%). 2) 2022Q2 realized revenue of 2.11 billion yuan (yoy+27.8%,qoq+6.4%), net profit of 210 million yuan (yoy+49.1%, qoq+99.9%), and non-return net profit of 200 million yuan (yoy+53.0%,qoq+104.4%).
To overcome the disturbance of the 22Q2 epidemic in Shanghai, the profit per ton has increased. 22H1 aluminum processing products are expected to ship 148000 tons, and the estimated profit per ton is 2083 yuan / ton, which is higher than the profit of 1880 yuan / ton in 2021. 1) the production of Shanghai base is stable:
2022Q2 Shanghai epidemic situation, the company closed management, to maintain the pace of production and sales, stable supply to enhance the procurement confidence of downstream customers. 2) the Chongqing base has been fully put into production to ensure supply. The Chongqing base has a full capacity of 200000 tons, giving full play to the complementary advantages of capacity allocation between Shanghai and Chongqing. 3) benefit from the decline in aluminum prices and Shanghai-London aluminum price gap: the company's product pricing model is aluminum price + processing fee, the price of aluminum ingots is usually based on the average price of aluminum ingots for a period of time before shipment / order / settlement, and the company's profits recover after 4 months. Due to the impact of the European energy crisis and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the aluminum price in April-May was higher than that in Shanghai, and the company exported about 1 million of its products overseas, resulting in high export profits.
The production capacity of Chongqing Phase II will be increased and expanded by 150000 tons (for new energy vehicles), and the total capacity is expected to increase to 580000 tons after reaching production. The fixed increase fund-raising plan to invest in the annual output of 150000 tons of high-end aluminum plate, strip and foil project for new energy vehicles (with a total investment of 1.98 billion yuan) has been approved by the shareholders' meeting, and the construction period is 36 months. At present, the company's total production capacity of aluminum plate, strip and foil is 340000 tons (200000 tons in Chongqing and 140000 tons in Shanghai). The technical transformation has increased the production capacity by 90,000 tons in 23 years, and the company's total production capacity is expected to increase to 580000 tons after the second phase of Chongqing reaches production.
Seize the explosive demand for thermal management of new energy vehicle batteries and actively develop new products. The company has actively developed high-strength and corrosion-resistant products, and has won many fixed-point new projects such as aluminum strip for strip battery, ultra-high strength water-cooled plate, CO2 heat pump and so on, focusing on projects such as non-flux material, pre-buried flux material, low melting point brazing material, green medium and high strength water-cooled plate, high-performance lithium aluminum foil and aluminum foil for aluminum-plastic film of soft package battery.
Focus on automotive thermite transfer materials and battery materials, Chongqing production capacity is gradually released to open room for growth. 1) High-speed growth of output: after the second phase of Chongqing 150000 tons was fully put into production, the total production capacity increased to 580000 tons. 2) cost decline: Chongqing has lower energy costs and higher finished products than the sea base, and the company has room for downside in per ton processing costs.
The company is the leader of automotive thermal management aluminum and maintains its buy rating. The company is the leader of automotive thermal management aluminum, with capacity and customer advantages, Chongqing base fully put into production capacity release, open shipping space, product structure optimization to improve profitability, promote rapid performance growth. To maintain the original profit forecast, the company is expected to return to the mother of the net profit of 73x10.0 pound 1.25 billion yuan in 22-24, corresponding to PE of 29-21-17 times, maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips: lower product processing fees; less-than-expected capacity construction; international trade frictions; epidemic situation repeatedly affect daily production and operation