Core ideas:
The glass shell giant transformed into photovoltaic glass and set sail again. Since its establishment, the company has ploughed the glass industry for more than 30 years, has been a world-class leader in glass shell, and has made a strategic transformation of photovoltaic glass since 2008, and has continued to add photovoltaic glass and layout high-end glass in the past two years. At present, the company's photovoltaic glass production capacity 2700t/d, ranking fifth in the industry, ultra-white float glass production capacity 600t/d, market share of 7.3%. Henan Investment Group, the controlling shareholder, is the main body of investment and financing of Henan provincial government, and the background of state-owned assets enables business development.
Tamping fuel cost advantage, scale effect + raw material self-supply + structure optimization, the company's photovoltaic glass is expected to continue to reduce costs. Under the "double carbon" goal, the demand for photovoltaic glass has been improving for a long time, and the core competitive factor of the industry is the ability to control costs. With the coordinated development of "natural gas + glass", the low-cost gas sources procured by the company are preferred for glass production and enjoy obvious fuel advantages. at present, the profitability of photovoltaic glass has led the second echelon. As Xuchang Ancai 1000t/d and Jiaozuo Ancai 800t/d production lines are ignited one after another, the supply capacity of thin glass and wide version products continues to improve, while the company plans to acquire quartz placer to increase the self-supply rate of raw materials, photovoltaic glass business is expected to continue to reduce costs.
Cultivate high-end glass industry, light, heat, medicinal glass waiting for flowers to bloom. (1) Photothermal glass: photothermal power generation has the characteristics of energy storage and complies with the general trend of multi-energy complementary. as a domestic wholesale supplier of photothermal glass, it is optimistic that the company will take the initiative by virtue of its first-mover advantage. (2) Medicinal glass: only a few domestic manufacturers can produce neutral borosilicate medicinal glass independently, with high technical barriers and large demand space. We expect that the drug glass production line is expected to contribute greater performance elasticity after it is successfully put into production.
Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 0.26,0.44,0.65 yuan per share respectively, and the corresponding PE according to the latest closing price is 34.0,20.3,13.8 times respectively. The valuation is lower than that of comparable companies, and the growth rate of performance in the next three years is higher than the average level of comparable companies. The new production capacity contributed all the increments in 2023. Combined with performance and valuation factors, it will be given 30 times PE in 2023, corresponding to a reasonable value of 13.25 yuan per share, with a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint. The company's production capacity was lower than expected, the supply of photovoltaic glass industry fluctuated more than expected, the growth of raw material prices exceeded expectations, and new business expansion fell short of expectations.