今日赛道股细分方向持续活跃,截止收盘,高压快充大涨3.21%,万祥科技(301180.SZ)涨超12%,伊戈尔(002900.SZ)、华锋股份(002806.SH)、中恒电气(002364.SZ)涨停。
得益于高压快充技术在充电补能效率、驱动性能等方面的优势,继2020年吉利首次发布支持800V的SEA浩瀚架构以来,国内车企加快800V高压平台布局。
随着800V车型如极狐阿尔法S、阿维塔11、小鹏G9、长城机甲龙于年内陆续上市,2022年成为800V车型量产元年。一时间,高压快充成为新能源车圈“热词”。
快充即为快速充电,衡量单位可用充电倍率(C)表示。充电倍率越大,充电时间越短。
从实现路径看,缩短充电时间共分别为大电流方案和高电压方案。其中,大电流快充存在能量损失严重,转换效率低以及热管理系统负担较大等劣势,高压快充具备能量转换效率高、热量低等优势,可切实缓解用户续航焦虑,是未来主流趋势。
从产业趋势看,第一,高压快充带动热管理系统功率和复杂度提升。
热管理方面,800V架构下整体制冷/制热功率增大,导致水冷板使用面积提升,其结构配合电芯不断优化;冷媒流量流速/流量增大,电子膨胀阀控流范围扩大,同时需保证高精确度,大口径高精度电子膨胀阀有望成为行业趋势,阀口径处设计以及配合传感器、控制器的系统设计是难点。
第二,高压快充驱动功率器件升级体现在SiC替代IGBT趋势。
SiC基功率器件替代Si基功率器件主要应用于电控逆变器、DC/DC转换器、OBC以及充电桩部位,能够提升工作频率、降低损耗、减小体积、提升部件功率密度,并且耐高温高压。重点为电控逆变器中SiCMOSFET替代SiIGBT。
第三,高压快充需要整车安全性要求升级从而驱动相应部件升级。
高压连接器保障高压回路连接安全,液冷快充桩将成为高压连接器未来技术难点;数字隔离芯片与不同元器件结合,应用于不同高功率电子设备,进行电气隔离,有集成趋势;薄膜电容由于其在耐高压、储能效果、寿命等方面综合优势,取代电解电容成为新趋势;高压直流继电器搭配智能熔断器为整车提供安全冗余。
参考手机补能发展历程,快充有望成为下一代补能的最佳方案,真正解决电动车续航焦虑核心痛点。800V快充相较大电流方案在成本,效率、技术难度方面优势相对明显,各家车企加速布局有望进入快速放量期。
根据华创证券测算,2025年和2030年800V高压快充行业市场规模有望分别达到324亿、878亿元。2021~2023年国内800V高压快充行业从无到有,2023年~2025年复合增速有望超过70%(爆发增长),2025年~2030年复合增速约为20%(稳步增长)。
兴业证券建议关注800V快充相关细分产业链投资机会:1)配套电池液冷水冷板换热产品:银轮股份;
2)受益大口径电子膨胀阀趋势:盾安环境;
3)受益于电子陶瓷封装,SiCMOSFET已取得突破性进展:中瓷电子;
4)SiC多合一功率电子部件已量产,涵盖DC/DC转换器、充电升压模块、OBC等:均胜电子;
5)SiC电源解决方案,大功率OBC产品已量产:欣锐科技;
6)高压连接器性能领先,有望受益于国产替代:瑞可达;
7)受益于液冷超充技术先发优势,充电枪产品成拳头产品:永贵电器。
Today, the subdivision direction of track stocks continues to be active. By the close, high-voltage fast charging rose 3.21%, Wanxiang Technology (301180.SZ) rose more than 12%, and 002900.SZ, 002806.SH and 002364.SZ rose by the daily limit.
Thanks to the advantages of high-voltage fast charging technology in charging efficiency and driving performance, since Geely first released the vast SEA architecture supporting 800V in 2020, domestic car companies have accelerated the layout of 800V high-voltage platforms.
As 800V models such as Polar Fox Alpha S, Avita 11, XPeng Inc. G9 and Great Wall Jiaolong have been on the market this year, 2022 will become the first year of mass production of 800V models. For a time, high-voltage fast charging has become a "hot word" in the new energy car circle.
Fast charging is fast charging, and the unit of measurement can be expressed as the charging rate (C). The higher the charging rate, the shorter the charging time.
From the point of view of the realization path, shortening the charging time is high current scheme and high voltage scheme respectively. Among them, high-current fast charging has some disadvantages, such as serious energy loss, low conversion efficiency and heavy burden of thermal management system. High-voltage fast charging has the advantages of high energy conversion efficiency and low heat, which can effectively alleviate users' life anxiety, which is the mainstream trend in the future.
From the perspective of industrial trends, first, high-voltage fast charging drives the power and complexity of the thermal management system to increase.
In terms of thermal management, the overall refrigeration / heating power under the 800V architecture increases, which leads to the increase of the use area of the water-cooled plate, the continuous optimization of its structure with the cell; the increase of refrigerant flow velocity / flow rate, the expansion of the flow control range of electronic expansion valve and the need to ensure high accuracy, large diameter and high precision electronic expansion valve is expected to become an industry trend, valve diameter design and system design with sensors and controllers are difficulties.
Second, the upgrade of high-voltage fast charge drive power devices is reflected in the trend of SiC replacing IGBT.
Instead of Si-based power devices, SiC-based power devices are mainly used in electronically controlled inverters, DC/DC converters, OBC and charging piles, which can increase the working frequency, reduce the loss, reduce the volume, increase the power density of components, and withstand high temperature and high pressure. Emphasis is placed on replacing SiIGBT with SiCMOSFET in electronically controlled inverters.
Third, high-voltage fast charging requires vehicle safety requirements to be upgraded to drive the corresponding parts upgrade.
The high-voltage connector ensures the safety of the high-voltage circuit connection, and the liquid-cooled fast filling pile will become the technical difficulty of the high-voltage connector in the future; the digital isolation chip, combined with different components, is used in different high-power electronic equipment for electrical isolation, and there is a trend of integration; because of its comprehensive advantages in high voltage resistance, energy storage effect and service life, thin film capacitor has become a new trend to replace electrolytic capacitor. High voltage DC relay with intelligent fuse provides safety redundancy for the whole vehicle.
With reference to the development process of mobile phone energy replenishment, fast charging is expected to become the best solution for the next generation of energy replenishment, and really solve the core pain point of electric vehicle battery life anxiety. The 800V fast phase filling large current scheme has relatively obvious advantages in cost, efficiency and technical difficulty, and the accelerated layout of various automobile companies is expected to enter the rapid release period.
According to Huachuang Securities estimates, the market size of 800V high-voltage fast charging industry is expected to reach 32.4 billion yuan in 2025 and 87.8 billion yuan in 2030. From 2021 to 2023, the domestic 800V high voltage fast charging industry has grown from scratch, and the compound growth rate is expected to exceed 70% (explosive growth) from 2023 to 2025, and about 20% from 2025 to 2030 (steady growth).
Societe Generale Securities suggests to focus on 800V fast charging related industry chain investment opportunities: 1) matching battery liquid-cooled water-cooled plate heat exchanger products: silver wheel shares
2) benefit from the trend of large-caliber electronic expansion valves: Shield environment
3) benefiting from electronic ceramic packaging, SiCMOSFET has made a breakthrough: China Ceramic Electronics
4) SiC all-in-one power electronic components have been mass produced, including DC/DC converter, charging boost module, OBC, etc.
5) SiC power solution, high-power OBC products have been mass-produced: Xinrui Technology
6) the performance of high voltage connectors is leading, and it is expected to benefit from the domestic alternative: Rekoda
7) benefiting from the first-mover advantage of liquid-cooled overcharge technology, charging gun products have become leading products: Yonggui Electric Appliances.