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观点 | 水电供给冲击引发限电,后续影响可能蔓延

Opinion | Hydropower supply shocks trigger electricity restrictions, and subsequent effects may spread

中信證券研究 ·  Aug 17, 2022 10:46

Source: CITIC study

CITIC pointed out that the problem of power shortage may spread in major hydropower provinces and coastal areas, thermal power and nuclear power will benefit from guaranteed supply, and frequent extreme weather also means that energy cleaning Brooks no delay.

The hydropower output is seriously impacted by the extreme dryness of the incoming water in the flood season and the demand load disturbance caused by the high temperature weather, which leads to a rare large-scale power cut in Sichuan province in the flood season. In view of the low water supply in southwest China and the large scale of hydropower transmission from west to east, the problem of power shortage may spread in major hydropower provinces and coastal areas. Since the beginning of this year, the overall domestic electricity demand is weak and thermal power is more willing to generate electricity after the rise in electricity prices. It is expected that the impact of this round of hydropower supply shocks on power security will be weaker than last year. Thermal power and nuclear power will benefit from guaranteed supply, the value of large hydropower with regulatory capacity will also be recognized by the market, and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather also means that energy cleanliness Brooks no delay.

There are large-scale and long-term power cuts in Sichuan province during the flood season.

The Sichuan Provincial Economic and Information Office and the Sichuan Electric Power Company of the State Grid issued an Emergency notice on expanding the scope of Power transfer by Industrial Enterprises to the people. In order to ensure the safety of the power grid and the use of electricity for the people, it was decided to implement a total production shutdown for all industrial power users in Sichuan Power Grid from August 15 to 20, for a total of five days.

The supply shock superimposed the plateau weather, which is the main cause of power shortage in flood season in Sichuan province.

After entering the flood season this year (June to October), the water inflow from Sichuan Province is extremely serious. In July, the inflow from major rivers in the province, such as the Dadu River and the Minjiang River, has generally dropped by more than 40% compared with the historical average for many years. The installed scale of hydropower in Sichuan Province is about 89 million kilowatts, in which there are a large number of radial small hydropower with no regulating capacity. The recent dry water seriously affected the output of this kind of small hydropower in flood season, and the hydropower generation decreased significantly. Recently, the extreme high temperature weather in Sichuan Province is serious. Data from the Sichuan Climate Center show that the number of high temperature days in the province since July this year is the highest since 1961. The high temperature weather promotes the rapid rise of residential electricity demand and promotes a significant increase in the peak demand load in the province. In addition, Sichuan Province, as a major province of power transmission from west to east, a large number of rigid contracts need to be carried out in the flood season, which further aggravates the tight situation of supply and demand in the province.

Considering the overall dry rainfall in southwest China and a large amount of hydropower transmission, the spread probability of power shortage is higher.

Since July, the rainfall in the whole southwest region is generally poor, and Yunnan, Hubei, Guizhou and other provinces, which are also major hydropower provinces, are also facing the impact of hydropower supply. in addition, the large scale of hydropower transmission from west to east also means that the power supply in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions is highly dependent on hydropower, and the depletion of incoming water may lead to problems in the implementation of power transmission contracts for hydropower transmission out of the province. If the load disturbance such as the continuous deterioration of hydropower output capacity or high temperature weather occurs, the problem of power shortage may spread in major hydropower provinces and coastal provinces. In 2021, the scale of domestic hydropower generation in the flood season will be 650 billion kilowatt-hours. It is assumed that this year's flood season power generation will be reduced by 20%, and the impact of the decline in hydropower output on domestic power generation will be about 1.6%. The transient characteristics of no inventory make the above shocks have a greater impact on power security.

The impact of power shortage shock may be weaker than last year because of relatively weak demand and enhanced supply capacity of thermal power.

A large-scale continuous power cut occurred in China from September to October in 2021. The unusually strong momentum of economic growth led to a high demand for electricity, as well as a lack of willingness to generate thermal power after the rapid rise in thermal coal prices. the power industry is facing the dual impact of high demand and declining willingness to supply, which led to the phenomenon of power cuts in China last year was particularly prominent. At present, electricity demand for the whole year is relatively weak (we expect domestic electricity demand to grow by about 4.0% this year), coal prices have fallen from high levels and the transaction price of thermal power market has increased the willingness of thermal power enterprises to generate electricity. Therefore, we believe that even if the incoming water continues to dry up and the power shortage caused by hydropower supply shocks spreads in some areas, its impact on the whole society will be weaker than last year.

Risk factors:

Water continues to dry up, coal prices rise sharply, extreme weather continues to disturb, electricity prices rise less than expected, and so on.

Investment strategy:

The electricity gap caused by insufficient hydropower supply will be filled by coal power and nuclear power, which will boost the utilization hours and electricity prices of thermal power and nuclear power. Frequent power shortage is expected to promote the basic role of coal power on power supply to be re-examined, coal power utilization is expected to pick up superimposed coal prices are entering a downward cycle, thermal power profitability is ushering in improvement. The adjustment capacity of large hydropower is outstanding, the degree of impact on electricity is relatively small, and the impact of dry incoming water also accelerates the value of large hydropower companies with regulation capacity and small hydropower. The fluctuation of hydropower output caused by frequent extreme weather also makes the transformation of energy to clean Brooks no delay, and the scenery installation continues to be a high growth period.

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