Company event: the company released its 2022 semi-annual report. 2022H1 realized operating income of 2.793 billion yuan, + 34.28% year-on-year; net profit of 305 million yuan,-14.22%; and deduction of non-return net profit of 328 million yuan,-16.23%. In a single quarter, 2022Q2 achieved revenue of 1.22 billion yuan, + 16.86% year-on-year and-22.46% month-on-month; realized net profit of 132 million yuan,-48.57% and-24.25%; and deducted non-return net profit of 101 million yuan,-42.76% year-on-year and-55.30%.
The falling price of Q2 copper and cobalt is a drag on the company's performance. 22H1's overall revenue growth over the same period last year is mainly due to the increase in product prices, 22H1 MB cobalt / LME copper respectively + 7.6% LME 73.9%, cobalt products / copper products revenue 1.502 billion yuan / 1.282 billion yuan, year-on-year + 27.08% Universe 42.87%. The performance of 22Q2 copper and cobalt prices is weak, and the company's revenue has declined from the previous month. The 22Q2 LME copper price / MB cobalt price is-4.1% and 2.8%, which is 5.8% higher than that at the end of 22Q1-8.9%. In terms of gross profit margin, 22H1 company as a whole achieved a gross profit margin of 27.51%, year-on-year-5.02pct; cobalt products gross profit margin of 33.63%, year-on-year + 0.79pct; copper products gross profit margin of 20.35%, year-on-year-11.8pct, mainly due to the increase in the price of upstream raw materials.
We will steadily promote production expansion projects and improve the layout of the whole cobalt industry chain. On the one hand, the company continues to promote the release of copper and cobalt capacity to provide additional support for future performance; on the other hand, the company attaches importance to the transformation to new energy, layout of new cobalt materials and precursor projects to improve the layout of the whole industry chain. ① copper and cobalt production capacity:
Congo gold 6000 tons of electrolytic copper was put into production at the end of the 21st year. In the first half of the year, the production capacity of new cobalt products was successively landed, of which the annual output of 5000 tons of cobalt powder technical renovation project and 5000 tons of cobalt hydroxide project were put into production in March and June respectively. The company's total production capacity of cobalt powder has been increased to 5000 tons of cobalt hydroxide to 10,000 tons.
The first phase of ② 's new cobalt material with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons of metal and 26000 tons of ternary precursor project has completed civil construction and equipment installation, and is currently in trial production.
Copper and cobalt prices are expected to stabilize and pick up. Cobalt: 22Q2, the domestic epidemic disturbance superimposed weak consumer electronics demand led to a decline in cobalt prices. In the second half of the year, with the advent of the peak consumption season of new energy vehicles and the bottom pick-up of consumer electronics market and traditional cemented carbide demand, cobalt prices are expected to pick up. In addition, the expected warming of cobalt storage can effectively boost the price of cobalt. Copper: at present, the world is in a low capital expenditure cycle, the supply side is difficult to have a substantial increase, and with stable growth investment such as infrastructure falling one after another in the second half of the year, infrastructure is expected to maintain resilience to give copper bottom demand support and the continued high economy in the new energy market is expected to boost copper demand, and the copper price center is expected to move up.
Investment suggestion
The company is the leader of cobalt powder in China, and capacity expansion contributes a strong driving force to the company's performance. with the stabilization and recovery of copper and cobalt prices and the release of new production capacity, we estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 88.5 million yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rate was 34.4%, 19.0% and 27.4%, respectively. The corresponding home net profit is 7.6 yuan, 16.5% and 24.7%, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.2%, 16.5% and 24.7%, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 23x, 20x and 16x, respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The price of copper and cobalt fluctuates sharply, the production progress of the project under construction is not as expected, and the downstream market demand is not as expected.