The field of junction box has been ploughed deeply for 17 years, and the gem will be listed again.
Since its establishment in 2005, the company has focused on the field of photovoltaic junction boxes, and has always been in the first echelon of the industry with continuous R & D investment, product iteration and excellent product quality. With the continuous uptrend of the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry and the improvement of the market share of the company's major customers, the company's market share is expected to continue to increase. At the same time, with the product premium and the decline of raw material prices brought about by the iteration of the company's product update to ease the pressure on the cost side of the enterprise, the company's profit is expected to be significantly improved. We estimate that the operating income of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 12.21,17.15 and 2.323 billion yuan, the net profit is 1.36,2.82 and 374 million yuan, and the EPS is 2.13,4.40,5.85 yuan per share. Corresponding to the current share price PE of 52.0,25.1, 18.9 times, covering for the first time, given a "buy" rating.
The industry boom continues to rise, and the company's market share is expected to increase steadily. We expect the company's market share to increase from 6.2% in 2020 to 10.5% in 2022. The company's main customers include Trina Solar, Jing O Technology, Zhonglai, Ates and Oriental Sunrise and other mainstream component enterprises. As the installed growth rate of the photovoltaic industry continues to rise and the concentration of components increases, the company, as the main supplier of Trina Solar Energy and Jingao Technology, is expected to benefit from the company's development of new customers at the same time. The company is expected to achieve a steady increase in market share.
New product premium superimposed with raw material price reduction, profit improvement is expected.
The technical iteration of the component link puts forward higher requirements for the product iteration speed of the junction box. with its profound R & D accumulation and high-quality product strength, the company has always followed the development trend of the industry. the increase in the proportion of separate new products in the business structure has directly improved the company's sales unit price and profitability. On the cost side, with the decline in raw material prices and the company's excellent cost control ability, the cost pressure on the company is expected to be further alleviated, and profitability is expected to hit bottom and rebound.
Aim at the distributed market and preempt the layout of intelligent junction boxes.
With the improvement of distributed photovoltaic permeability, more and more attention has been paid to intelligent junction boxes because of the higher security and efficiency requirements for household and industrial and commercial photovoltaic. With years of R & D investment, the company has taken the lead in the layout of the intelligent junction box market. at present, it has successfully applied for 4 patents and achieved pilot shipments. With the improvement of safety standards for household power stations, the market for intelligent junction boxes is expected to expand, and the company, as a forerunner, is expected to benefit first.
Risk tips: major customer loss risk, rising raw material prices affect the company's profitability, global electricity demand is lower than expected, new customer development is not as expected, new product development failure risk