Main points of investment:
Take the lead in breaking the foreign technology blockade, the market share ranks first in China, and it is the leader in the domestic polylactic acid subdivision field. The company is engaged in the research and development, production and sales of polylactic acid (PLA), which comes from pure raw materials, easy to degrade, high safety, green and low carbon, and is recognized as the most promising and competitive degradable material in the industry. The company has accumulated nearly 20 years in polylactic acid technology, taking the lead in breaking the foreign technology blockade, and is the leader in the domestic polylactic acid subdivision field. The main highlights of the company are as follows:
The main results are as follows: (1) the technical barrier of polylactic acid is high, and the technological first-mover advantage is the core competitiveness. The two-step process is the mainstream process for the production of PLA. When the "two-step" process is used for the production of lactide, the synthesis and purification of the intermediate lactide have harsh reaction conditions, complex process and high technical requirements. At present, the only companies in the world to break through lactide technology and achieve mass production of PLA are overseas NatureWorks, TCP and domestic Fengyuan and Haizheng wood, all of which have accumulated technology for more than decades.
In 2021, the domestic market share was 34%, ranking first in China, while foreign sales accounted for 80% of exports, ranking first in China. The company sold 21000 tons of polylactic acid in 21 years, of which domestic sales accounted for 79% and foreign sales accounted for 21%. The domestic sales volume is 16400 tons, and the domestic market share is 34%, ranking first in the country. due to the high technical barriers to the industry, the domestic CR3 is 84%, and the industry concentration is relatively high. The company's foreign sales of polylactic acid account for 81% of China's exports, ranking first in China, indicating that the product quality of Haizheng has been widely recognized at home and abroad.
(3) it has long-term and stable cooperative customers, and the amount of customers' intended purchases can basically cover the new production capacity. The company has become a stable supplier for foreign enterprises such as international chemical giant BASF (cooperation for 14 years), world-leading bioplastics enterprise Novamont (cooperation for 11 years), Korean famous retail group BGF and so on. The company currently has an actual production capacity of 40,000 tons, and another 20,000 tons are in the state of commissioning, raising an annual output of 150000 tons of polylactic acid project. up to now, the intended purchase volume of customers from 2022 to 2026 has reached 3.96,6.29,9.09,12.04 and 136800 tons, which can basically cover the company's new production capacity.
The strictest "plastic restriction order" accelerates market substitution, and there is a broad space for PLA market substitution. In 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecological Environment issued the opinions on further strengthening the treatment of plastic pollution, with the end of 2020, the end of 2022 and 2025 as the three key time nodes, and 2022 is one of the key time nodes. According to the company's prospectus, by the end of the 14th five-year Plan, only the amount of polylactic acid used in express delivery, takeout, plastic film and plastics will reach 1.127 million tons, while the total domestic demand for PLA in 21 years is only 48100 tons, and there is a lot of room for market growth. under the continuous increase of the policy, it can be predicted that the market demand for degradable plastics will continue to enlarge and the permeability will accelerate.
PLA supply and demand is expected to be tight, with the investment of 150000 tons of project volume, the company's performance will open up a new situation. At present, in addition to the company, the enterprises that have fully mastered the "two-step process" process and achieved stable mass production are NatureWorks, TCP and Fengyuan Bio. The enterprises that have partially mastered the "two-step process" process and realized the mass production of this part of the process are Jindan Bio and COFCO Bio, while other enterprises have not yet realized the "two-step method".
The process is stable and mass production. In China, the annual production capacity of polylactic acid is no more than 170000 tons, and PLA is still in short supply until at least 2024. Overall, polylactic acid is still in the production capacity competition stage, raising 150000 tons of project production will greatly promote the company's performance growth.
Profit forecast, valuation analysis and investment advice: the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 7.72,9.46 and 1.511 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 32.05%, 22.40% and 59.84% over the same period last year. Realize the net profit of 0.48,0.76 and 135 million yuan, an increase of 37.47%, 56.81% and 78.19% over the same period last year, corresponding to EPS 0.24,0.38,0.67 yuan and PE 87,56 and 31 times. The company's current price-earnings ratio is relatively higher than that of companies in the same industry. Considering the listing of new shares, the volatility is large, and for the first time the company is given a "overweight-B" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of rising raw materials, the risk of capacity expansion less than expected, the risk of intensified market competition, the risk that the company's business expansion is greatly affected by downstream demand, and the risk that policy implementation is not as strong as expected.
