Global macro

• Before Tuesday's trading, the three major stock index futures fell slightly.

• European stocks rose slightly.
  

The benchmark pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.28 per cent, Germany's DAX 30 index rose 0.65 per cent and Spain's IBEX 35 index rose 1 per cent.

• International oil prices continue to fall

Brent crude oil fell nearly 1%. Jade WTI crude oil fell 0.63%. On the one hand, the global economic slowdown is dampening demand for crude oil. On the other hand, oil supply is increasing. Libyan Oil Minister Mohamed Orne said recently that Libya's crude oil production will increase to "just over" 1 million barrels a day, thepaper.cn reported. In addition, Iranian oil is expected to return to the market. Ulyanov, permanent representative of Russia to the international organization in Vienna, said that if things go well, the parties to the Iran nuclear agreement could reach a final agreement as early as next week, thepaper.cn reported. Iran said a few days ago that the "final text" previously submitted by the European Union was acceptable.

• Can the US economy achieve a soft landing? Goldman Sachs Group: the road still exists, but it will get narrower and narrower.

Goldman Sachs Group believes that while the Fed is trying to reduce inflation, the road to prevent the economy from falling into a severe recession still exists, but it is getting narrower and narrower. Our conclusion is that the road to a soft landing still exists but it is difficult. Several factors beyond the Fed's control may make the road easier or more complex, increasing or reducing the chances of success, "Goldman Sachs Group economist David Merrick said in a client report released on Sunday."

• Blackrock warns that the rebound in US stocks is not sustainable: raising interest rates will lead to economic stagnation and worsen corporate profits.

Despite the recent rally in US stocks, Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager, insisted on advising investors to reduce their holdings, saying the current rebound was unsustainable because of continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and deteriorating corporate earnings. As inflation fell, hopes that the Fed might soon suspend raising interest rates fuelled the stock market rally. But we think it is too early and inflation will stabilize above pre-epidemic levels. Blackrock said. Blackrock pointed out that consumer spending is shifting from goods to services, while the profits of S & P 500 companies are mainly contributed by commodity companies. Looking ahead, falling corporate earnings could put pressure on share prices.

• Bank of America: quantitative tightening will cause the S & P 500 to fall by another 7%

The US stock market already faces a lot of resistance as a result of the Fed's sharp rise in interest rates. But if history is any guide, shrinking the Fed's balance sheet will pose a risk to share prices, according to Bank of America Corporation. It is understood that BofA, after studying the historical relationship between Fed bond purchases and S & P 500 returns between 2010 and 2019, concluded that quantitative tightening (QT) up to 2023 would cause the benchmark index to fall by 7 per cent from its current level. In addition, the bank said quantitative easing explained more than 50% of market volatility.

• Wall Street is talking about the prospect of US stocks! Xiao Mo: the rally will continue until the end of the year. Morgan Stanley: the bear market is not over yet.

Top Wall Street strategists are divided over whether U. S. stocks are ready to continue their longest run of gains this year or whether they will fall back after a false dawn. Recently, the two major Wall Street investment banks expressed diametrically opposed views on the future performance of US stocks: JPMorgan Chase & Co was firmly bullish, while Morgan Stanley warned that the bear market was not over. In JPMorgan Chase & Co's view, the rally in US stocks has pushed the NASDAQ up more than 20 per cent, and "this rally is likely to continue until the end of this year." However, Morgan Stanley said that the sharp rebound in US stocks since June this year may only be "the pause button pressed by the bear market", and expects US stocks to begin to decline in the second half of this year. The divergence of views on Wall Street reflects a high degree of uncertainty among investors about the outlook for US stocks in the face of strong cross-cutting trends.

• Morgan Stanley: it is still difficult to understand the "high fever" of European and American prices, and inflation in Asia has "peaked"

Morgan Stanley believes that compared with economies such as the United States and Europe, inflation in Asia has peaked. Chetan Ahya, chief Asia economist of Morgan Stanley, said in an interview on Monday that the data show that inflation in Asia has peaked. Looking ahead, we need to see the downside risks of inflation: the average inflation rate in Asia is as high as 5.5%. The current level of inflation has fallen by about half a percentage point from that peak. By contrast, the average inflation rate in the United States is as high as 9%, and the average inflation rate in Europe is around 8.5% and 9%. But Morgan Stanley also warned that demand for goods would shrink in the coming months as supply chains improve and inventories increase, leading to a weak outlook for Asian exports.

• Echoing the bearish position, the "big short" is close to clearing its holdings in the second quarter.

Previously disclosed documents show that Scion Asset Management held more than $165 million worth of shares at the end of the first quarter, with Q1 in the top five positions$Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY.US) $、$Cigna Corp (CI.US) $、$Ovintiv (OVV.US) $、$Alphabet Inc-CL C-A (GOOGL.US) $、$Meta Platforms (META.US) $. In the second quarter, the fund emptied not only the positions in 11 stocks, including these five shares, but also the $35 million Apple Inc AAPL put option. Burry's sharp sell-off in the second quarter echoes his bearish position on the stock market. He has been expressing his pessimistic views on the market and the economy on Twitter. He recently warned that while economic data showed signs of improvement, "addictive" consumer spending heralded more trouble in the future. He said consumers were still buying goods and services at a time when inflation was still at its highest level in decades.

• Hillhouse HHLR Jiancang BABA, Pinduoduo, small Jiancang Tesla, Inc., increased holdings of 4.07 million shares of KE Holdings Inc.

Hillhouse's HHLR Advisors position in US stocks in the second quarter shows that the institution Q2 built a position.$BABA (BABA.US) $Buy a total of 1.89 million shares, with a market capitalization of $214 million, and re-establish the position$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $1.4 million shares, increase holdings$KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE.US) $4.07 million shares, in addition to a small Jiancang$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $. HHLR reduced its holdings significantly in the second quarter.$iQIYI, Inc. (IQ.US) $2.32 million shares, the proportion of positions reduced to 1.38%, clearance$Li Auto Inc. (LI.US) $And Q1 Jiancang DiDi Global Inc., at this point the portfolio no longer holds "Wei Xiaoli" shares. The size of the portfolio Q2 decreased by $124 million to $4.66 billion from the previous report.

• Temasek Q2 position exposure: preference for financial stocks, Blackrock is still the top position stock

Temasek submitted its position report for the second quarter ended June 30, 2022, according to SEC. From the perspective of position preference, financial, IT and communications stocks ranked in the top three, accounting for 43.65%, 18.03% and 13.07% of the total positions, respectively. The top five heavy stocks are respectively$Blackrock (BLK.US) $、$Visa Inc (V.US) $、$BABA (BABA.US) $、$MasterCard Inc (MA.US) $、$Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO.US) $、$Lumen Technologies (LUMN.US) $。

Hot news

• Lose 1 billion dollars! Netflix Inc rebounded 50% from the May low, and the bears were hit hard.

Go short in recent months$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $Twenty-five percent of investors suffered heavy losses. Netflix Inc's share price has soared 50 per cent from its May low, thanks to its new features to help revive growth, better-than-expected quarterly results and the success of its latest sci-fi thriller, Strange things. It is reported that short sellers borrow shares and sell them, hoping to buy them back at a lower price and profit from the price difference. Bears have lost $996 million by market capitalization since mid-May, according to online data.

• Tesla, Inc. is said to have expanded the virtual power plant to Southern California, and its share price rose nearly 1% before trading.

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Establish a partnership with Southern California Edison (SCE) to transform its California-based virtual power plant business (VPP)Expanded to the southern part of the state. At present, Tesla, Inc. Powerwall users in and around Los Angeles in southwestern California can be paid by providing electricity to the grid.

• Walmart Inc rose more than 4% before trading, and the financial report showed that his Q2 revenue and adjusted earnings per share were higher than market estimates.

$Walmart Inc (WMT.US) $Second-quarter revenue is $152.86 billion, with an estimated $151.14 billion. Second-quarter revenue is $152.86 billion, with an estimated $151.14 billion. Walmart Inc expects full-year earnings per share to fall by 9%, while market estimates predict a decline of 11%, 13%. Walmart Inc's performance exceeded analysts' expectations but echoed last month's profit warning, when Walmart Inc said inflation-affected consumers had reduced their purchases of high-margin non-essentials such as clothing and increased spending on necessities. Walmart Inc, the largest grocer in the United States, is often seen as a bellwether for the overall economy. The company says more and more customers are turning to its notoriously low-priced stores. However, the product mix will put pressure on the company as profit margins on groceries are lower than those on non-essential items such as televisions and clothing.

• The Home Depot Inc reiterated his sales growth forecast of 3% in 2022, and the company's share price has rebounded by more than 14% so far this quarter.

$The Home Depot Inc (HD.US) $Quarterly results were announced in the morning, earnings exceeded expectations, and the home improvement store maintained its 2022 expectations. The Home Depot Inc's adjusted earnings per share in the last quarter were $5.05, higher than analysts' expectations of $4.94, according to the data. The home improvement retailer posted record sales of $43.8 billion over the same period. The Home Depot Inc also reiterated his sales growth forecast of 3 per cent in 2022. The company's shares have rebounded more than 14 per cent so far this quarter and have fluctuated in pre-market trading.

• BHP Group Ltd reported the highest full-year profit in history, and its share price rose more than 3% before trading.
  

Mining stocks rose before the market, with BHP Group Ltd (BHP.US) $, the world's largest integrated mining company, just reporting its highest-ever full-year profit, with a total underlying profit of $23.8 billion, up 39% from a year earlier and exceeding the average analyst forecast of $21.6 billion.

• Us investment bank Stifel: low water level of the Rhine poses challenges, but shipping companies may benefit from it

Marc Zeck and Johannes Braun, analysts at Stifel, said that despite the challenges posed by the low water level of the Rhine, the situation is likely to support shipping rates, which is generally good for shipping companies and freight forwarders. The water level in the Kaub section of the Rhine reached 33 centimeters on Tuesday. The low water level disrupts logistics and seriously limits transport capacity. Analysts said this would exacerbate congestion at the port of Rotterdam, which relies heavily on the Rhine, and would raise shipping prices in favor of shipping companies and freight forwarders. Analysts added that it could also benefit Hamburg port, as transport from hamburger port to the port's hinterland does not rely on barges.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Most of the popular US-listed stocks fell before the day.
  

• HUYA Inc. released Q2 results in 2022: mobile MAU increased by 7.7% year on year to 83.6 million

On the evening of August 16, 2022, Beijing time$HUYA Inc. (HUYA.US) $Release second quarter 2022 results. According to the financial report, HUYA Inc. 's total income was 2.28 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2022. Under non-American general accounting standards, the net profit attributed to HUYA Inc. for the quarter was 5.9 million yuan. In terms of user data, HUYA Inc. 's mobile MAU (average number of monthly active users) reached 83.6 million in the second quarter, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year.

• NIO Inc.: the second integrated charging station in Norway was officially launched.

$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $According to the official account, NIO Inc., the second block in Norway, was officially launched at Svarthagsveien 11540 Vestby on August 15. At present, NIO Inc. integrated charging station Vestby has been put into operation.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

20:30 The total number of construction permits in the United States is 169.6, the predicted value is 165, and the published value is--

20:30 The total number of new housing starts in the United States has an annualized pre-annualized value of 155.9.