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阅文集团(00772.HK):业绩基本符合预期 降本增效下运营效率提升
China Literature (00772.HK): the performance is basically in line with the expected cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

Gelonghui Finance ·  {{timeTz}}

1H22 Non-IFRS 归母净利润基本符合我们预期
公司公布1H22 业绩:公司将重点从优先考虑当期收入增长转向运营效率和成本结构优化,收入40.87 亿元,同比下降5.9%;Non-IFRS 归母净利润6.66 亿元,高于市场预期(6.18 亿元),基本符合我们预期(6.90 亿元)。
发展趋势
在线业务重在孵化精品,版权运营业务受自营游戏拖累。1)在线业务:1H22在线业务收入为23.07 亿元,同比下降9.2%。1H22 在线业务MAU 2.65 亿人,同比增长13.8%,其中免费阅读DAU 为1,400 万人;由于免费阅读业务发展,付费用户数同比下滑12.9%至810 万人,付费阅读ARPPU 为38.8元/月,同比提升6.6%。1H22 自有平台和腾讯自营渠道收入分别同比下降6.3%和1.7%,而第三方平台收入因部分合作中止同比下降35.8%。我们认为,公司在线业务重在孵化精品,夯实IP 内容生态,短期而言业务本身增长潜力有限。2)版权运营业务:虽然公司剧集、电影、版权授权及动画收入稳健增长,但因自营游戏流水下滑,1H22 除新丽传媒外版权运营业务收入同比下降28.3%至8.14 亿元。新丽传媒收入9.67 亿元,实现利润2.1 亿元。
降本增效战略持续推进,运营效率提升。1H22 毛利率52.5%,同比下降0.2ppt,其中在线业务和版权运营业务毛利率分别同比提升2.9ppt 和下降4.8ppt,我们认为毛利率下降或因自营游戏收入下滑和新丽传媒部分项目总额法确认的结构性影响。1H22 销售费用率27.2%,同比下降3.9ppt;管理费用率13.6%,同比下降1ppt,降本增效战略下运营效率提升。公司亦在1H22 业绩会上提到,下半年会继续控制销售和管理费用支出。我们认为,当下宏观环境下,公司对ROI 的重视优先级提前,运营效率有望持续优化。
IP 可视化和商品化推进,看好版权运营的长期价值空间。公司IP 可视化方面,影视和动画作品产出多部爆款,而IP 供给侧多元化崭露头角,如科幻是平台1H22 增长最快阅读品类,我们认为这亦顺应国内娱乐产品工业化提升趋势;IP 商业化初步探索,《斗破苍穹》美杜莎雕像GMV 达500 万元。
展望2H22 新丽传媒剧集上线或待播包括《玫瑰之战》(8 月8 日已播出)《纵有疾风起》《新川日常》《潜伏者》等。我们认为,公司IP 平台能力稳固,在IP 孵化、开发和运营具有竞争优势,关注其长期发展空间。
盈利预测与估值
因自营游戏收入下滑,我们下调2022 年Non-IFRS 归母净利润7.4%至14.4 亿元,维持2023 年Non-IFRS 归母净利润预测不变。现价对应19/14倍2022/2023 年Non-IFRS P/E。维持跑赢行业评级,因盈利预测下调,剔除股数变动影响(授予员工股份行权变化)下调目标价7.4%至42.2 港元,对应2022/2023 年25/18 倍Non-IFRS P/E,较现价32.5%上行空间。
风险
内容监管收紧;线上阅读用户增长及IP运营业务收入低于预期。

The net profit of 1H22 Non-IFRS is basically in line with our expectations.
The company announced 1H22 results: the company will shift its focus from giving priority to current revenue growth to operational efficiency and cost structure optimization. Revenue is 4.087 billion yuan, down 5.9% from the same period last year. Nonmusic IFRS net profit is 666 million yuan, higher than market expectations (618 million yuan), basically in line with our expectations (690 million yuan).
Trend of development
The online business focuses on incubating boutiques, and the copyright operation business is dragged down by proprietary games. 1) online business: 1H22 online business revenue was 2.307 billion yuan, down 9.2% from the same period last year. 1H22 online business MAU 265 million, an increase of 13.8% over the same period last year, of which 14 million were free reading DAU. Due to the development of free reading business, the number of paid households fell 12.9% to 8.1 million, and the paid reading ARPPU was 38.8 yuan per month, up 6.6% from the same period last year. Revenue from 1H22's own platform and Tencent's proprietary channel fell 6.3% and 1.7% respectively from the same period last year, while revenue from third-party platforms fell 35.8% year-on-year due to the suspension of some cooperation. We believe that the company's online business focuses on incubating boutiques and strengthening the IP content ecology, and the growth potential of the business itself is limited in the short term. 2) copyright operation business: although the company's revenue from drama, film, copyright licensing and animation grew steadily, due to the decline in the flow of proprietary games, the revenue from copyright operation of 1H22 except Xinli Media decreased by 28.3% to 814 million yuan compared with the same period last year. Xinli Media has a revenue of 967 million yuan and a profit of 210 million yuan.
The strategy of reducing cost and increasing efficiency has been continuously promoted, and operational efficiency has been improved. The gross profit margin of 1H22 was 52.5%, down from the same period last year, in which the gross profit margin of online business and copyright operation business increased 2.9ppt and decreased 4.8ppt respectively. We believe that the decline in gross profit margin may be due to the structural impact confirmed by the decline in proprietary game revenue and the total amount of some projects of Xinli Media. The 1H22 sales expense rate is 27.2%, down 3.9ppt from the same period last year; the management expense rate is 13.6%, which is 1ppt lower than the same period last year; and the operation efficiency is improved under the strategy of reducing costs and increasing efficiency. The company also mentioned at the 1H22 results meeting that it would continue to control sales and administrative expenses in the second half of the year. We believe that in the current macro environment, the company pays attention to ROI ahead of priority, and operational efficiency is expected to be continuously optimized.
The promotion of IP visualization and commercialization is optimistic about the long-term value space of copyright operation. Company IP visualization, film and television and animation products produced a number of popular styles, while IP supply-side diversification came to the fore, such as science fiction platform 1H22 the fastest growing reading category, we think this also conforms to the domestic entertainment products industrialization trend; IP commercialization preliminary exploration, "fight the firmament" Medusa statue GMV of 5 million yuan.
Looking forward to the launch of 2H22 Xinli media series or to be broadcast, including "Battle of the Rose" (broadcast on August 8), "despite the Wind", "Xinchuan Daily", "lurk" and so on. We believe that the company's IP platform capability is solid, has a competitive advantage in IP incubation, development and operation, and pays attention to its long-term development space.
Profit forecast and valuation
Due to the decline in revenue from proprietary games, we lowered the net profit of Non-IFRS homing in 2022 by 7.4% to 1.44 billion yuan, leaving the forecast of Non-IFRS homing net profit in 2023 unchanged. The current price corresponds to 19max 14 times 2022 Non-IFRS 2023. To maintain the outperform industry rating, due to the profit forecast downgrade, excluding the impact of changes in the number of shares (changes in the number of shares granted to employees) lowered the target price by 7.4% to HK $42.2, corresponding to 2022 Greater 2023 25xpxt Non-IFRS P Universe E, which is 32.5% upside from the current price.
Risk
Content regulation has been tightened; online reading user growth and IP operating revenue have been lower than expected.

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