Recommended logic: 1) Market-driven plus policy stimulus, the intelligent logistics industry is on the rise: the domestic intelligent logistics market is close to 200 billion, of which the smart warehousing market exceeds 100 billion. Cost reduction and efficiency advantages+policy guidance will stimulate the continuous growth of smart logistics market demand. 2) Build core technical barriers, focus on the high-end market, and lead the industry in profitability: The company has core competitiveness in the two major fields of intelligent logistics software and hardware. With R&D, innovation and customization capabilities, it focuses on high-end markets and leading customers, leading the industry by 10 percentage points. 3) Emerging and traditional industries are two-wheel drive, orders continue to grow, and capacity expansion breaks growth barriers: At the end of 2021, orders in hand were 980 million yuan, an increase of 76.7% over the previous year. Gigafactory will be put into operation in 2022 to jointly support the company's rapid growth.
Market-driven and policy stimulated, the intelligent logistics industry is on the rise, and leading enterprises are still being cultivated. In 2020, China's smart logistics market was about 180 billion, of which the smart warehousing market exceeded 100 billion. As labor costs continue to rise and the scale of enterprises continues to grow, customer demand for intelligent logistics systems that reduce costs and improve efficiency continues to rise. The government has also intensively introduced policies to guide the development of the industry, and the scale of the smart logistics market will continue to grow rapidly. Overseas brands have first-mover advantages, strong global and domestic competitiveness, and high market share; domestic enterprises are gradually rising with advantages such as local market nurture+cost performance+timely service response. Currently, they are in a stage of full competition, and leading enterprises are still being cultivated.
Build core technical barriers, focus on high-end markets, and lead the industry in profitability. The company attaches great importance to R&D innovation. The proportion of R&D personnel is nearly 30%, and the R&D cost rate has reached 8.6% in the past 5 years. It has core competitiveness in intelligent logistics software technology and hardware equipment such as intelligent robots. With strong R&D innovation and customization capabilities, the company focuses on the high-end market. The main customers include China Tobacco, Procter & Gamble, etc. The gross margin of the project is 10 percentage points higher than that of domestic peers, and it is one of the few Chinese brands that can export complete sets of high-end logistics equipment to developed countries overseas. It is expected to grow into an industry leader with technological advantages.
Emerging and traditional industries are driven by two-wheel drive, orders continue to grow, and capacity expansion breaks the shackles of growth. In 2021, the new energy industry was heavily expanded, and 220 million orders were signed with Ningde Era; in addition, the company actively carried out technical research on traditional industries such as airports and automobiles to create a two-wheel drive development pattern for emerging and traditional industries. In 2021, the company placed 1.03 billion yuan of new orders, and 980 million yuan of in-hand orders at the end of the year, an increase of 76.7% over the previous year. The Super Future factory will be put into operation in 2022, which can support the company's order scale of 2 billion dollars, and cost control will be further strengthened.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. The company's net profit for 2022-2024 is estimated to be 1.2, 170, and 240 million yuan respectively. The compound growth rate of net profit returned to the mother over the next three years is 42.9%. The company was given 25 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 59.25 yuan. For the first time, it was covered and given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of falling new orders, risk of technology and product backwardness, increased risk of industry competition.