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直击业绩会 | 中芯国际(688981.SH):目前看到最大的库存调整在智能手机领域 公司不改长期产能扩充发展建设的规划
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981.SH): the biggest inventory adjustment in the smartphone sector is the company's long-term capacity expansion and construction plan.

Zhitong Finance ·  {{timeTz}}

智通财经APP获悉,8月12日,中芯国际(688981.SH)在业绩说明会上表示,目前看到最大的库存调整在智能手机领域,智能手机终端公司由于仍有大量的库存,所以不需要采购额外的芯片。公司对于毛利率的要求,公司表示是跟着市场、整个行业和客户发展需求走。价格方面,公司称,大屏显示驱动芯片,智能手机相关的芯片,如CIS芯片、指纹识别芯片等的价格会有下滑,其它产品的价格还是比较稳定,长期合约产品定价不会有变化。对未来几年的资本开支,公司不改长期产能扩充发展建设的规划,投资强度应该会保持稳定。

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981.SH) said at an earnings presentation on Aug. 12 that the biggest inventory adjustment was seen in smartphones, where smartphone terminal companies do not need to purchase additional chips because they still have a lot of inventory, Zhitong Financial APP learned. The company's requirements for gross profit margin, the company said is to follow the market, the entire industry and customer development needs. In terms of price, the company said that the prices of large-screen display driver chips and smartphone-related chips, such as CIS chips and fingerprint identification chips, will decline, the prices of other products will remain stable, and the prices of long-term contract products will not change. For capital expenditure in the next few years, the company will not change its long-term production capacity expansion, development and construction plan, and the investment intensity should remain stable.

据中芯国际介绍,目前看到最大的库存调整在智能手机领域,根据公开的数据,2022年上半年智能手机领域的销售下跌17%,下跌主要发生在4月到5月。智能手机终端公司由于仍有大量的库存,所以不需要采购额外的芯片。在消费领域,因为供应链有很多产能供应大面板显示驱动芯片,这个领域的价格受到了很大的影响。其他领域,如工业、汽车、高端模拟、高端连接需求仍然非常强劲。各个领域龙头的需求仍然十分强劲。海外市场从去年起有所复苏,所以需求在增加。

According to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, the largest inventory adjustment seen so far is in the smartphone sector, where sales fell 17% in the first half of 2022, mainly from April to May, according to public data. Smartphone terminal companies still have a lot of inventory, so they don't need to buy additional chips. In the consumer sector, prices in this area have been greatly affected because there is a lot of capacity in the supply chain to supply large panel display driver chips. Demand for other areas, such as industry, automotive, high-end analog and high-end connectivity, is still very strong. Demand from leaders in all areas remains strong. Overseas markets have recovered since last year, so demand is increasing.

行业周期调整对产能利用率的影响,公司认为第一是看今年年底,接近今年年底时,终端公司的决策者都会为明年做计划,如果明年的计划乐观,就会开始备更多库存,下订单。第二是看明年二月,看整体经济情况,总体需求是否恢复。公司三季度的产能利用率会和二季度比较接近,处于比较高的水平,对四季度看的还不是很清楚。下行周期对公司新工厂的压力要大一些,时间久的工厂,节点、产品平台、客户都特别多,而新工厂客户验证过的产品是比较少的。

The impact of industry cycle adjustment on capacity utilization, the company believes that the first is to look at the end of this year, near the end of this year, terminal company decision-makers will make plans for next year, if the plan for next year is optimistic, they will begin to prepare more inventory and place orders. The second is to see whether overall demand recovers in February next year, depending on the overall economic situation. The company's capacity utilization in the third quarter will be relatively close to that in the second quarter, at a relatively high level, and it is not very clear to see the fourth quarter. The downward cycle puts more pressure on the company's new factory. There are many long-term factories, nodes, product platforms and customers, while the new factory customers have verified fewer products.

下行周期里,公司对毛利率的要求,公司称其是跟着市场、整个行业和客户发展需求走,比方说,公司建立了一个工厂,建好后是预计会运行20年以上的,这期间一定会遇到旺季、毛利率很好的时候,也会遇到淡季,在不同的时点投资其实对于20年整个的发展影响并不大。

In the downward cycle, the company's requirements for gross profit margin are in line with the development needs of the market, the whole industry and customers. for example, the company has set up a factory and is expected to run for more than 20 years after it is built. during this period, there will be a peak season, when the gross margin is very good, as well as the off-season, investment at different time points actually has little impact on the development of the whole 20 years.

价格方面,大屏显示驱动芯片,智能手机相关的芯片,如CIS芯片、指纹识别芯片等的价格会有下滑,其它产品的价格还是比较稳定,长期合约产品定价不会有变化。

In terms of price, the prices of large screen display driver chips and smartphone-related chips, such as CIS chips and fingerprint identification chips, will decline, the prices of other products will be relatively stable, and the pricing of long-term contract products will not change.

对未来几年的资本开支,公司相信国内在地代工的逻辑是长期不变的,中长期全世界的半导体行业,特别是中国国内的代工业发展前景巨大。公司不改长期产能扩充发展建设的规划,投资强度应该会保持稳定。

With regard to capital expenditure in the next few years, the company believes that the logic of domestic local foundry will remain unchanged for a long time, and there are great prospects for the development of the world's semiconductor industry, especially China's domestic contract industry in the medium to long term. The company does not change the long-term production capacity expansion development and construction plan, the investment intensity should remain stable.

“速冻急停”每家晶圆厂面临的情况不太一样。目前情况是,大屏电视方面的显示驱动芯片、TCON、电源管理、Wifi,以及智能手机里需要的指纹识别、CIS、显示驱动芯片等这种情况比较多。比如,手机厂商之前预计的目标比较高,但近几个月需求变少,而手上的库存比较多,所以他们现在去市场拿产品的时候就只拿一半或者三分之一,进而导致中间的设计公司的库存很高,中间公司就会要求代工厂不要再下线,这个过程的传递有放大倍数,这就是速冻急停。

"Quick freeze" each fab faces a different situation. At present, there are many display driver chips, TCON, power management, Wifi in large screen TV, and fingerprint identification, CIS, display driver chips needed in smart phones. For example, mobile phone manufacturers had expected higher targets, but in recent months there has been less demand and more inventory on hand, so they now take only half or 1/3 of their products when they go to the market to get their products. As a result, the inventory of the intermediate design company is very high, and the intermediate company will ask the contract factory not to go offline again, and the transmission of this process has magnification, which is called quick freezing and emergency stop.

公司认为有两个时间点非常关键,一个是2022年年底,终端客户都要做2023年的收入计划,也会预计手机、电视的生产量,要备多少库存;另一个是2023年的2月份左右,那时可以看到整个宏观经济的走势,终端客户会根据整体经济情况来调整全年规划。所以今年年底和来年的2月是个观察期,现在是在消化速冻急停的期间。

The company believes that there are two critical points in time: one is that by the end of 2022, terminal customers will have to make revenue plans for 2023, and they will also predict the production of mobile phones and televisions and how much inventory they need; the other is around February 2023. At that time, we can see the overall macroeconomic trend, and the end customers will adjust the annual plan according to the overall economic situation. So the end of this year and February of the next year is an observation period, and now it is the period of sudden stop of digestive quick freezing.

“健康的产能利用率”每个公司对于产能利用率的健康水平的标准并不一致,整体来看,公司认为一定要高于90%的产能利用率,才是一个比较健康的水平。

"healthy capacity utilization" each company has different standards for the healthy level of capacity utilization. On the whole, the company believes that it must be higher than 90% of capacity utilization, which is a relatively healthy level.

公司曾经提过到了2025年总产能要翻倍基于两个考量,一个考量是公司在全球代工业的市场份额只有5%,占比非常小,整个行业的供求关系不会因为公司的产能增长造成冲击。第二个是公司现有的客户量和公司新开发的平台和领域,预估即使达到这个目标还是不能充分满足发展需要。至于来年的资本开支是否会增加或减少一点,现在回答还太早。

The company has mentioned that the doubling of total production capacity by 2025 is based on two considerations. One consideration is that the company's market share in the global generation industry is only 5%, which is very small, and the relationship between supply and demand in the whole industry will not be affected by the company's capacity growth. The second is the company's existing customer volume and the company's newly developed platforms and areas, it is estimated that even if this goal is achieved, it will not be able to fully meet the development needs. As to whether capital expenditure will increase or decrease a little in the coming year, it is too early to answer.

由于第二季度的合同负债提升了5亿美元,投资这关心有些新的订单是否是长约,以及是否会面临急停速冻的情况。公司表示,和公司签订长约预交款的都是公司认为非常有潜力或者是现在行业的龙头,现在看这些地方都没有受到太大的冲击,大家按照签订的合同、订单、价格在执行。长期合作对于公司未来的发展很好,可以锁定未来部分的价钱和产能,不会有太大的风险。长约预交款部分执行得非常好。

As contract liabilities rose by $500 million in the second quarter, the investment is concerned about whether some new orders are long-term contracts and whether they will face a quick freeze. The company said that those who signed long-term contract prepayments with the company thought they had great potential or were the current leaders in the industry. Now it seems that these places have not been greatly affected, and they are being carried out in accordance with the signed contracts, orders, and prices. Long-term cooperation is very good for the future development of the company, can lock in the future part of the price and production capacity, there will not be too much risk. The advance payment part of the long contract has been carried out very well.

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