Hot news

• More optimistic than the Federal Reserve! The market is already betting that inflation has peaked.

The moderation in US inflation figures released last week has comforted some investors who are further inclined to bet that inflation is peaking. Specifically, they are more inclined to think that current US inflation is not structural inflation and therefore will not last long, and they tend to believe that as inflation moderates, the Fed will respond by slowing down its pace of rapid interest rate hikes. Investors now expect the Fed to raise interest rates slightly in September and continue to digest the rate hikes in the first half of next year. Now, many investors have bought shares in technology companies, because these companies are usually the most sensitive to interest rates.

• The minutes of the Fed's July meeting are about to be released, and the market bet on raising interest rates fluctuates between 50 and 75 basis points.

The minutes of the Fed's July meeting, to be released at 2 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, may provide some clues that the Fed may tighten policy again in September. Since the Fed decided to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its July meeting, financial markets' bets on a rate hike in September have fluctuated between 50 and 75 basis points, as data show that the US labour market is stronger than expected and inflation is lower than expected. Michael Gapen, head of Bank of America Corporation's US Ministry of Economic Affairs, said the cost-benefit analysis pointed to a small increase in interest rates, while inflation and employment data could support a 75 basis point increase.

• Can US stocks continue to rebound? The big motor and the small motorcycle are arguing endlessly.

Wall Street is divided over whether U. S. stocks can continue their longest run of gains this year or whether they will slide after another false dawn. Morgan Stanley said the sharp rebound since June was only a pause in the bear market, which will start falling in the second half of the year as corporate performance weakens, interest rates rise and the economy slows. But Xiaomo said the rally has pushed the Nasdaq 100 index up more than 20 per cent, and the rally is likely to continue until the end of the year. This divisive view reflects the high degree of uncertainty about the outlook in the US stock market in the face of strong cross-trends. Inflation shows signs of falling from its peak, and companies have been raising wages strongly, which bodes well for the stock market. But at the same time, Fed officials are holding on to hawkish interest rate hikes until inflation is brought under control, which could plunge the economy into recession.

• Dr. Doomsday: there are only two options for the US economy: hard landing or runaway inflation

Mr Roubini, an economist known as Dr Doom, said that given the most aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed in decades, the US economy had only two options: a hard landing or persistently high inflation. He pointed out that "the federal funds rate should be much higher than 4 per cent to push inflation to 2 per cent. I think the benchmark interest rate may need to reach 4.5 per cent." if not, inflation expectations cannot be controlled.

• The "big short" prototype Q2 sold almost all its holdings, warning of an "epic market crash" to come.

Michael Burry, the archetypal character of the movie "Big short" who predicted the financial crisis, sold almost all of its holdings in the second quarter, cutting its US stock portfolio to a single asset, according to SEC documents. Burley's Scion Asset Management disclosed more than 500000 Geo Group holdings worth $3.3 million. Geo Group, which invests in private prisons and mental health facilities, has a market capitalization of less than $900m. Mr. Burley has been predicting a collapse in U. S. stocks for months and has cut back on his portfolio. He cut his portfolio from 20 to six in the third quarter of last year, reducing its value from $140 million to $42 million in three months.

• The confidence index of US homebuilders fell for eight months in a row, the longest decline since 2007.

According to data released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) / Wells Fargo & Co on Monday, the confidence index of US homebuilders fell 6 points to 49 in August, lower than the most pessimistic forecast among economists surveyed and falling below the 50 dividing line for the first time since May 2020. In addition to rising building materials and labor costs, the pressure on home buyers caused by higher mortgage rates has led to a further decline in confidence among homebuilders. The retreat of buyers has led to an increase in housing inventory and a decrease in new construction activity.

• Manufacturing activity in New York fell sharply, the second largest decline since 2001

Overall business activity data for August released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday showed that the index fell more than 42 points to minus 31.3 as orders and shipments fell sharply, the second-biggest decline since 2001. A reading below zero indicates a sharp decline in demand and is well below the most pessimistic forecast in the survey. Looking ahead, the state's manufacturers are only slightly optimistic. The six-month outlook index rose to 2.1 from minus 6.2 in July.

Review of US stocks

• Technology stocks led US stocks to close higher, while most US-listed stocks strengthened.

The three major indexes of US stocks opened low and closed higher, with the Dow up 0.45%, the S & P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq up 0.62%.

Technology stocks continue to riseTesla, Inc. rose by more than 3%, while Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp rose slightly.

Most of the Chinese stocks strengthened.Pinduoduo rose 4.8%, JD.com 1.6% and NetEase, Inc 0.6%.

• Berkshire substantially increased its positions in energy stocks in the second quarter, buying another 3.88 million shares of Apple Inc

According to the report, the position held by Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Buffett, reached $300.131 billion in the second quarter, down 17.47% from the previous quarter, and the concentration of the top ten heavy positions was 87.51%. In the second quarter, he bought a total of $6.2 billion worth of stocks and sold $2.3 billion worth of shares, with a net purchase of only $3.8 billion, compared with a net purchase of 41 billion in the previous quarter. Berkshire increases its holdings in the second quarter$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $、$Western Oil (OXY.US) $、Activision Blizzard (ATVI.US) $、$Chevron Corp (CVX.US) $、$Ally Financial (ALLY.US) $、$Paramount Global-B (PARA.US) $, the largest drug wholesaler in North America$Macpherson (MCK.US) $And chemical giants.$Celanese (CE.US) $And insurance companies.$Markel (MKL.US) $A total of 9 stocks, of which Apple Inc bought 3.88 million shares; reduced his holdings.$General Motors Co (GM.US) $、$Kroger (KR.US) $Wait for 4 stocks$Verizon Communications Inc (VZ.US) $和$Royalty Pharma (RPRX.US) $The stock was cleared.

• Goldman Sachs Group increased his holdings of BABA and US debt ETF in the second quarter, and reduced his holdings of Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc-CL C and Meta.

On Monday, August 15th, the 13F report submitted by Goldman Sachs Group showed that Goldman Sachs Group increased his holdings in the second quarter.$BABA (BABA.US) $, essential Consumer goods selection Industry SPDR Fund, iShares Asustek MSCI emerging Markets ETF,$Pinterest (PINS.US) $2337 stocks or funds, etc.; heavy stocks or funds include$SPDR S & P 500 index ETF (SPY.US) $、$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $、$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $, iShares Anshuo Russell 2000 ETF, and$Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN.US) $. Goldman Sachs Group Q2 reduction$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $, Jingshun QQQ Trust Series 1, iShares Anshuo Russell 2000 ETF,$Alphabet Inc-CL C-A (GOOGL.US) $、$Meta Platforms (META.US) $、$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $2229 stocks or ETF, etc., and important stocks to be liquidated include geolocation operators$NextNav (NN.US) $8.96 million shares worth $67.1 million; sports company$Sportradar Group AG (SRAD.US) $1.98 million shares, worth $32.9 million.

• Hillhouse HHLR continues to be bullish on Chinese assets, Q2 "bottom" BABA, Pinduoduo

In the second quarter, seven of the top ten Hillhouse stocks are medium outline, and four of the five major increased holdings are only medium outline. Heavy stocks$BeiGene, Ltd. (BGNE.US) $和$JD.com (JD.US) $Continue to rank the top two, build positions again in the second quarter$BABA (BABA.US) $和$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $With an average purchase of more than 1 million shares, Ali Jiancang ranked as the eighth largest stock. Although clearing the stock$Li Auto Inc. (LI.US) $, but new entrants$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $, add positions$Daqo New Energy Corp (DQ.US) $Daquan was promoted to the top ten for the first time.

• Tiger Global Fund's total holdings in US stocks halved in the second quarter.

Tiger Global Fund liquidated its positions in US stock broker Robinhood; in the second quarter, according to SEC documents.$Alphabet Inc-CL C-C (GOOG.US) $The parent company Alphabet 2.21 million shares, accounting for about 2% of its portfolio; a reduction of 29.5%$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $Position to 5.16 million shares, reduced$JD.com (JD.US) $18.25 million shares, with a market capitalization of $1.96 billion, but still the largest position; in addition$XPeng Inc. (XPEV.US) $、$Li Auto Inc. (LI.US) $And other Chinese stocks have also been reduced. Tiger Global held $11.846 billion in U. S. shares at the end of the second quarter, down more than half from the previous report.

• News: Apple Inc plans to put ads in more iPhone applications

According to reports,$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Advertising may be extended to more first-party applications on iPhone to increase revenue. The company currently has annual revenue of about $4 billion in advertising, but hopes to grow the market segment to the "10 billion level," the report said. Apple Inc has displayed ads in some apps, such as Apple News and Stocks. The company also recently announced plans to expand advertising in App Store. The company is considering ways to add ads to Apple Inc's map, and it is "likely" that ads will also be inserted in Podcasts and Books stores, the report said.

• Mining giant BHP Group Ltd's annual profit soared nearly 40%, reaching an all-time high

The largest mining company in the world$BHP Group Ltd (BHP.US) $The company reported its highest annual profit ever, and the company's underlying profit for the fiscal year to the end of June reached $23.8 billion, up nearly 40% from $17.1 billion the previous year, well ahead of analysts' average expectations of $21.6 billion and the highest level since the merger in 2001. This is mainly due to record commodity prices, although the company warned of the adverse effects of slowing global economic growth, rising costs and geopolitical uncertainty.

• Pfizer Inc CEO COVID-19 was positive and had been vaccinated with 4 doses of Pfizer Inc COVID-19 vaccine.

15日，$Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) $Alberle, chairman of the board and CEO, issued a statement through Pfizer Inc's website, saying that his COVID-19 test result was positive. Alberle said his symptoms were "very mild" and were being quarantined and had begun taking an oral drug called Paxlovid COVID-19 developed by Pfizer Inc. Aberle also revealed that he had been vaccinated with 4 doses of Pfizer Inc and COVID-19 vaccine.

• Hedge fund mogul Loeb increased his stake in Walt Disney Company, calling for a spin-off of ESPN business and a reshuffle of the board of directors.

Hedge fund boss Daniel Loeb's fund Third Point bought again.$Walt Disney Company (DIS.US) $And pushed the entertainment giant to divest its sports channel ESPN, restructure its board of directors, and called on Disney to "make every effort" to integrate Hulu into Disney+ 's direct consumer-facing platform. Loeb said in a letter to Walt Disney Company CEO Bob Chapek that there are good reasons to think that the ESPN business should be spun off, and that the department has brought considerable free cash flow to Walt Disney Company.

Turnover of US stocks on Monday TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

• Beishui bought nearly HK $1 billion for Hang Seng Chinese enterprises and sold Meituan for nearly HK $300m.

Southbound Capital bought a net HK $200m on Monday, while Hang Seng China, China Telecom Corporation and Xiexin Technology received a net purchase of HK $952 million, HK $179 million and HK $171 million respectively. Meituan-W ranks first in net sales, with an amount of HK $295 million.

• Sunny Optical reported that the profit attributable to shareholders was about 1.358 billion yuan, a decrease of about 49.5% over the same period last year.

$Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) $The interim results for 2022 were released, with revenue of about 16.972 billion yuan (the same unit below), a decrease of about 14.4% over the same period last year, a gross profit of about 3.5224 billion yuan, a decrease of about 28.8% over the same period last year, and a profit of about 1.358 billion yuan for the period attributable to shareholders of the company, a decrease of about 49.5% over the same period last year. The basic profit per share is 1.2413 yuan. The announcement said that the decline in revenue was mainly due to repeated epidemics, chip shortages, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and inflation during the first half of 2022: weak demand in the smartphone market and downgrading of smartphone cameras, resulting in a year-on-year decline in shipments of mobile phone lenses and mobile camera modules, and increased pressure on average sales prices; and the group's car lenses and modules grew less than expected.

• Xiexin Technology: major shareholders intend to subscribe for convertible bonds of about HK $6.2 billion-7.8 billion.

$Xiexin Technology (03800.HK) $It is announced that the Chu Family Trust, the company's major shareholder, has approached the company to subscribe for the convertible bonds issued by the company through its subsidiaries and other investment institutions. the proposed principal is about US $800 million to US $1 billion (equivalent to about HK $6.2 billion to HK $7.8 billion) and the proposed initial conversion share price is not less than HK $4.20. No binding agreement has been signed as of the date of the announcement.

• Yum China-S: the application for dual major listing has been confirmed by the HKEx and is expected to take effect at the end of October this year.

$Yum China-S (09987.HK) $According to the announcement, the company's application to voluntarily convert its secondary listing status on the main board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited to a major listing was confirmed by the HKEx's application for a major listing conversion plan on August 15, 2022. The company will hold a special general meeting on October 11, 2022 to seek shareholder approval for a number of proposals. Subject to the approval of all proposals by shareholders at the extraordinary general meeting and the necessary approval of the HKEx, the Company will become a dual major listed company on the New York Stock Exchange and the HKEx. The effective date of the major listing conversion plan is expected to be October 24, 2022.

Focus today

Key words: minutes of RBA monetary policy meeting, WH Group Limited, Tencent Music, The Home Depot Inc, etc., released financial reports.

On Tuesday, the United States will announceTotal number of new housing starts on an annual basis、Total number of construction permits、Monthly rate of industrial outputWait for dataCanada to announce monthly CPI rate in July. In additionRBA to release minutes of monetary policy meeting。

On Aug. 2, the RBA raised its cash rate target by 50 basis points to 1.85%, in line with expectations. The RBA also said the scale and timing of future interest rate hikes would depend on upcoming data and the central bank's assessment of inflation and labour market prospects. The RBA will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on August 16th, from which investors can learn more details about the outlook for monetary policy.

Financial reportHong Kong stock$WH Group Limited (00288.HK) $, US stocks$Tencent Music (TME.US) $、$Sound Network (API.US) $、$The Home Depot Inc (HD.US) $、$Walmart Inc (WMT.US) $、$Sea (SE.US) $The financial results will be announced.

Niuniu morning reading:

If you don't want to own a stock for ten years, don't consider owning it for ten minutes.

-- Warren Buffett