Purchase analysis:
1. The issuance size of your convertible bonds is 1 billion yuan, and the debt and main body rating is AA/AA; the conversion share price is 10.17 yuan, and the conversion value is 99.21 yuan as of December 25, 2021; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.18 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 10%, which belongs to the general level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 4.34% maturity yield of 6-year AA bond enterprises on December 24, 2021, the bottom of the debt is 91.14 yuan, and the value of pure debt is higher. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of shares on the total share capital and circulating share capital dilution pressure is 8.64%, there is a certain dilution pressure on the existing equity.
two。 As of December 25, 2021, the top three shareholders of the company, Beijing Dongjia Investment Co., Ltd., Guiyang Industrial and Commercial Investment Group Co., Ltd., and Hong Ming, respectively, accounted for 39.50%, 35.94% and 5.00% of the total share capital, respectively. The controlling shareholder did not promise priority placement. According to the current market income and environment, the size of the first day placement is expected to be about 53%. The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 470 million yuan. Since the maximum amount of new debt applied for by a single household is 1 million yuan, assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1050 and 11.5 million, the expected success rate is around 0.0041% Mel 0.0045%.
3. The company is in the industry of gas Ⅲ (Shenwan Class III). From the point of view of valuation, as of December 25, 2021, the company's PE (TTM) is 58.13 times, which is higher than the middle level of the same industry in 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 11.484 billion yuan, which is higher than the middle level of the industry. As of December 25, 2021, the company's shares have fallen 20.14% so far this year, while the industry index has risen 11.81%, Wandequan A has risen 7.80%, and the annualized volatility in the past 100 weeks is 38.11%. The stock is generally elastic. At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 27.34%, and the pledge risk is high. Other risk points: 1. Risks caused by government pricing in pipeline natural gas sales business; 2. Gas source risk; 3. The risk of demand fluctuation and market development in the downstream market; 4. Market competition aggravates risks.
4. The scale of your convertible bonds is small, the protection of the debt bottom is high, the parity is lower than the face value, the market may give a 21% premium, the listing price is expected to be about 120 yuan, it is suggested to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.