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东软教育(09616.HK):疫情影响 经营短期承压 不改长期发展韧性

Neusoft Education (09616.HK): the epidemic affects management under short-term pressure without changing long-term development resilience.

申萬宏源研究 ·  Aug 15, 2022 13:41  · Researches

Neusoft Education released Yingxi in the middle of 2022 (1H22), during which the adjusted net profit increased by not less than 50% compared with the same period last year, and the adjusted return net profit increased by no less than 70%, which was in line with our previous expectations. We believe that the increase in corporate profits is mainly due to the fact that the company received one-time operating government subsidies in 1H22, which led to higher earnings. At the same time, there has been a simultaneous increase in the volume and price of students and tuition fees in the higher education sector, as well as explosive growth in the light asset business. In addition, 1H21 has 19.18% of minority equity and has a low base of home net profit.

The volume and price of higher education business are on the rise. We believe that the growth of the higher education sector is mainly due to the increase in the number of students and average tuition fees driven by the policy of high-quality schools. In 2021, the number of students at the company's three undergraduate colleges increased by 16.3% to 45600 compared with the same period last year, and the strong internal growth was mainly due to the continued expansion of enrollment in 2021, with the total number of students reaching 16141 in the 22nd academic year. In the 22At 23 academic year, the total number of students in the company was further increased to 19549, an increase of 21% over the same period last year. In addition, as the provinces where the company runs schools have adopted the record system to liberalize tuition fees, the average tuition fees for students in higher education business are expected to continue to rise, and the income from higher education business is expected to reach 1.283 billion yuan in 2022.

The output of educational resources increased as scheduled. Neusoft Education in the end of the 21st year, the number of professional co-construction of industrial colleges climbed to 73, nearly 300 cooperation projects, covering 21200 students. During the 1H22 period, the company optimized the colleges and universities with less than 100 people, and the number of projects dropped to about 255. however, the quality of cooperative projects has been further improved and will continue to develop towards high-quality cooperation in the future. As a professional co-construction cooperation will last for 3-4 years, we believe that the number of students in Neusoft Education Co-Construction Specialty will also continue to climb, reaching 2.5 and 30000 respectively in 2022 and 2023, corresponding to 209 million yuan in educational resources export business income in 2022.

The growth of continuing education has slowed down due to the impact of the epidemic. We believe that due to the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, the offline opening of Neusoft's continuing education business is limited, and the company's To C training business is affected. As the COVID-19 epidemic spread in various places in the second half of the year, the impact on the opening of continuing education is likely to continue. Therefore, we expect that the company's continuing education business revenue will decline by about 37% to 70.22 million yuan in 2022 compared with the same period last year.

For the sake of educational public welfare, the revenue of digital factories is on the decline. The company is adjusting the business model of digital factory, while reducing the speed of expansion, focusing on cultivating students' practical ability, strengthening students' employment, and maintaining a certain degree of educational public welfare, the profit space will be significantly narrowed. As a result, we expect the business revenue of Neusoft Education Digital Factory to fall to 26.06 million yuan in 2022, down about 60% from the same period last year.

Keep buying. We believe that Neusoft's higher education business will continue to grow steadily, relying on excellent school quality and reputation, as well as the policy of expanding enrollment in higher education. In addition, the company's educational resources export business will drive the company's second growth curve. In the short term, due to the impact of the epidemic and changes in business strategy, we believe that the growth of continuing education business and digital factory business has slowed, so we have lowered the company's 2022 net profit forecast to 336 million yuan. With the resumption of continuing education business, the expansion of light property business and the change of potential tax rate, we expect the adjusted net profit of the company to reach 457 million yuan and 531 million yuan in 2023 and 2024, respectively. We got a target price of HK $5.17, with room for a 24% increase. Maintain the buy rating.

Risk hint: higher education sector enrollment is not as expected; light assets business expansion is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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