Key elements of the report:
On the evening of August 9, 2022, Lianchuang issued its semi-annual performance report for 2022. During the reporting period, the company realized operating income of 1.194 billion yuan, an increase of 63.02% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 673 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 1325.58% over the same period last year. 581 million yuan was deducted from non-net profit, an increase of 1651.24% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
The demand for Q2's main products was dragged down by the epidemic in stages, and the overall performance was in line with expectations: quarterly, the company's Q2 realized operating income of 582 million yuan, an increase of 45.65% over the same period last year, a decline of 4.72%; and a net profit of 366 million yuan, an increase of 978.32% over the same period last year and an increase of 18.74% over the same period last year. The net profit of non-homing was 272 million yuan, an increase of 1207.88%, and a decline of 11.78%.
The company's Q2 revenue and non-return net profit declined slightly compared with the previous quarter, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in the second quarter, limited start-up of downstream enterprises, and periodic weak demand for PVDF and other main products.
The small increase in Q2 net profit from the previous month is mainly due to the fact that the company received a performance compensation of about 122 million yuan from Shanghai Investment Fund during the reporting period. Overall, the company's Q2 and first-half performance is in line with expectations.
The production capacity of the second phase of PVDF has been put into production smoothly, and the decline in product prices has not reduced the growth momentum of the company: since 2022, with a small amount of new capacity on the market and the periodic weakness of downstream demand in the second quarter, the prices of PVDF and R142b have fallen to varying degrees. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of August 9, the market price of lithium grade PVDF was about 400,000 yuan / ton, while that of R142b was about 125,000 yuan / ton, down about 18% and 36% respectively from the high point. At present, the price of R142b at the cost side has basically stabilized, and there is still support for the current lithium level PVDF price. The company produces PVDF with its own R142b production capacity and the cost is controllable. The company's existing PVDF is mainly lithium-grade production capacity, with the improvement of the domestic epidemic, the demand for PVDF is gradually warming up, the company is bound to downstream leading enterprises, the order quantity is sufficient, the second phase of 5000 tons of PVDF is now in the capacity release stage, is expected to reach production in the third to fourth quarters, the company's PVDF production and sales are expected to increase in the second half of the year compared with the first half of the year. In addition, the company's 6000 tons / year PVDF is equipped with 11,000 tons / year R142b co-production 30,000 tons / year R152a project and Wuhai 25,000 tons / year PVDF supporting 45,000 tons / year R142b co-production project is in smooth progress, and is expected to be completed and put into production in the second half of 2023. The company has a certain first-mover advantage in the field of domestic lithium-level PVDF, and the downstream customer resources are of high quality. In the future, with the continuous launch of production capacity under construction, the company's scale advantage and cost advantage in the PVDF domain will be magnified, even if the product price and unit profit level are lower than at this stage, but the company's competitiveness in the industry and its own growth power are still worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment advice: it is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 1.48 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding E is 14.7 yuan, 12.6 yuan, 12.5 yuan (corresponding to the closing price of 16.4 yuan on August 9), maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk factors: PVDF and other projects construction schedule is not as expected risk; product price fluctuation risk; downstream demand is not as expected risk.