Watson Biotech (300142): The 13-valent pneumonia and HPV vaccine dosage innovative product echelon is growing

光大證券 · Aug 11, 2022 16:06 · Researches

　　事件：

　　公司发布2022 年半年报，实现营业收入23.48 亿元，同比+73.96%；归母净利润4.21 亿元，同比+31.90%；扣非归母净利润4.81 亿元，同比+100.47%；经营性净现金流4.02 亿元，由负转正；EPS 0.26 元。业绩符合市场预期。

　　点评：

　　13 价肺炎疫苗与HPV 疫苗迅速放量，国际化取得重大进展：2022Q1~Q2，公司单季度营业收入分别为6.56/16.92 亿元，同比+51.28%/84.70%；归母净利润0.39/3.82 亿元，同比+20.09%/33.22%；扣非归母净利润0.97/3.83 亿元，同比+29.95%/132.57%。2022H1 非经常性损益-0.60 亿元，主要是持有嘉和生物股票的股价下跌导致公允价值变动收益-8,875.50 万元。玉溪沃森的13 价肺炎结合疫苗实现销售收入20.10 亿元，同比+103.17%，该产品2022H1 批签发373.15 万剂，同比+39.68%；玉溪泽润的双价HPV 疫苗在5 月首次获得批签发，上半年共批签发88.47 万剂；部分产品生产线设备改造、生产计划调整，导致部分疫苗产品批签发数量下降较大，整改完毕后将陆续恢复。国际业务方面，公司海外营业收入2.16 亿元，同比+320.16%，其中13 价肺炎疫苗完成了在摩洛哥的注册，获得上市许可证，并完成了首批100 万剂13 价肺炎结合疫苗的出口；Q1玉溪沃森收到埃及客户签发的本年度AC 多糖疫苗采购订单；截至2022.6.30，公司产品已累计出口到18 个国家。

　　持续大力投入研发，创新疫苗产品梯队日渐壮大：2022H1，公司研发投入4.78亿元，同比+84.11%；费用化4.00 亿元，研发费用率17.05%。2022 年3 月，玉溪泽润双价HPV 疫苗获批上市；上海泽润九价HPV 疫苗也已处于临床研究阶段，目前正在开展Ⅲ期临床研究受试者入组前的相关准备工作；新冠mRNA 疫苗Ⅲ期临床研究阶段现场工作已基本结束，正在进行数据整理等工作；新冠腺病毒载体疫苗处于Ⅱ期临床研究阶段。上海泽润自主研发的重组新冠疫苗处于II期临床研究阶段；重组新冠病毒变异株疫苗（CHO 细胞）处于Ⅰ期临床研究阶段；吸附无细胞百白破/b 型流感嗜血杆菌联合疫苗于2022 年3 月获批临床。公司与蓝鹊生物签署了《新型冠状病毒变异株mRNA 疫苗技术开发及商业化合作协议》，该项目临床前研究的各项工作在持续推进中。

　　盈利预测、估值与评级：维持预测公司2022~2024 年归母净利为11.99/18.74/23.63 亿元，同比+180.23%/56.34%/26.07%，按最新股本测算对应EPS 为0.75/1.17/1.47 元，现价对应PE 为59/38/30 倍，维持“买入”评级。

　　风险提示：新品种获批进度或销售低于预期；行业监管政策调整的风险。

Events:

The company released its semi-annual report of 2022, achieving operating income of 2.348 billion yuan, year-on-year + 73.96%; return net profit of 421 million yuan, year-on-year + 31.90%; deducting non-return net profit of 481 million yuan, year-on-year + 100.47%; operating net cash flow of 402 million yuan, from negative to positive; EPS 0.26 yuan. Performance is in line with market expectations.

Comments:

13-price pneumonia vaccine and HPV vaccine were released rapidly, and significant progress has been made in internationalization: 2022Q1~Q2, the company's quarterly operating income was RMB 656 million, respectively, compared with the same period last year, which was + 51.28% and 84.70% respectively; the net profit of return to the mother was RMB 392 million, which was + 20.09% and 33.22% compared with the same period last year; and the net profit of non-return was RMB 0.78 million, which was + 29.95% and 132.57%, respectively. 2022H1 non-recurring profit and loss-60 million yuan, mainly due to the decline in the share price of Jiahe biological stocks led to fair value changes in income-88.755 million yuan. The sales income of Yuxi Watson's 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine reached 2.01 billion yuan, which was + 103.17% compared with the same period last year. The 2022H1 batch of this product issued 373.15 million doses, which was + 39.68% last year. Yuxi Zerun's bivalent HPV vaccine was issued for the first time in May, and a total of 88.47 million doses were issued in the first half of the year. The equipment transformation of some product production lines and the adjustment of production plans have led to a large decline in the number of batches issued of some vaccine products, and will be restored one after another after the rectification is completed. In terms of international business, the company's overseas operating income was 216 million yuan, + 320.16% compared with the same period last year, of which 13-valent pneumonia vaccine completed its registration in Morocco, obtained the listing license, and completed the export of the first batch of 1 million doses of 13-valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine; Q1 Yuxi Watson received this year's AC polysaccharide vaccine purchase order issued by Egyptian customers; as of 2022.6.30, the company's products had been exported to 18 countries.

Continue to invest heavily in research and development, the echelon of innovative vaccine products is growing: 2022H1, the company invested 478 million yuan in R & D, + 84.11% compared with the same period last year; the cost is 400 million yuan, and the R & D expenditure rate is 17.05%. In March 2022, Yuxi Zerun bivalent HPV vaccine was approved and put on the market; Shanghai Zerun 9-valent HPV vaccine was also in the clinical research stage, and relevant preparations for subjects in phase Ⅲ clinical study were being carried out; COVID-19 mRNA vaccine phase Ⅲ clinical research phase was basically completed, data processing and other work was being carried out; and new coronavirus vector vaccine was in phase Ⅱ clinical research phase. The recombinant COVID-19 vaccine independently developed by Shanghai Zerun is in the phase of II clinical research; the recombinant novel coronavirus mutant vaccine (CHO cell) is in the phase of Ⅰ clinical study; and the combined vaccine of adsorbing acellular diphtheria and Haemophilus influenzae type b was approved in March 2022. The company and Blue Magpie signed the "novel coronavirus mutant mRNA vaccine technology development and commercial cooperation agreement", the project preclinical research work in continuous progress.

Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the forecast company's 2022-2024 return net profit of 11.99 billion yuan, 1.874 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 180.23%, 56.34%, 26.07%, according to the latest equity estimates, the corresponding EPS is 0.75 PE 1.17x1.47 yuan, the current price is 59-38-30 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hints: the approval progress or sales of new varieties are lower than expected; the risk of regulatory policy adjustment in the industry.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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沃森生物(300142)：13价肺炎与HPV疫苗放量 创新产品梯队日渐壮大

Watson Biotech (300142): The 13-valent pneumonia and HPV vaccine dosage innovative product echelon is growing

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沃森生物(300142)：13价肺炎与HPV疫苗放量创新产品梯队日渐壮大