Main points of investment:
With the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, there is a gap between supply and demand of trichlorosilicon. At the same time, it is difficult and long to expand the production of trichlorosilicon. The company's annual production capacity of trichlorosilicon will be expanded from 50, 000 tons to 100000 tons. At the same time, with the advantage of technical experience, the company distributes the aerogel industry and opens up long-term growth space for the aerogel project under construction of 10000 cubic meters.
The company is a leading enterprise of sulfur silane, benefiting from the increase in the permeability of "green tires" and the growing demand for sulfur silane. The company is the global sulfur silane subdivision industry leader, the industrial advantage is obvious. Moreover, the company has reserved the new NXT sulfur silane technology, which has a broad space for development in the future.
The supply and demand of trichlorosilicon is tight, and the company's production capacity will be released within the year.
Under the background of dual-carbon policy, the demand for polysilicon increases rapidly, but the expansion pace of trichlorosilicon is slower than that of polysilicon, and the supply and demand is tight. We expect the company's second set of 50,000 tons of trichlorosilicon production capacity to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2002, some of which can be sold out of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, which is expected to significantly improve the company's performance at that time.
Aerogel business opens up the company's growth space.
Aerogel has very low thermal conductivity. As a thermal insulation material, aerogel can greatly reduce the thickness of thermal insulation layer and has a wide range of applications. Under the background of carbon neutralization and carbon peak, the market of aerogel is expanding rapidly. The company is one of the early enterprises in the industry to distribute aerogels, and has obvious advantages in the industrial chain. With the experience of silicone industry, the company has rapidly promoted 10,000 cubic aerogel projects and opened up the space for medium-term growth.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's income in 2022-24 will be about 22.83 plus 33.73 yuan per share, with a corresponding growth rate of 78 percent, 48 percent, 25 percent, 5.01 percent, 8.09 yuan, and 1.03 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding growth rate will be 199 percent, 61 percent, 27 percent, 2.36 yuan per share, and 83.1 percent, respectively. Taking into account the reasonable pace of the company's production capacity and the continuous progress of high value-added product projects, we give the company 23 years 15 times PE, with a target price of 27.75 yuan, covering for the first time and giving an "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: in the construction capacity is not as expected, trichlorosilicon prices fell sharply, COVID-19 epidemic risk.