Bona Pictures came back to increase its main business.
Bona Pictures has an issue price of 5.03 yuan, with a public offering of 274.9 million shares, with a total share capital of 1.3745 billion shares landing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Bona Pictures is the first private enterprise in China to engage in film distribution business and has ploughed the film and television industry for many years. now it has become a well-known film group company with the layout of the whole industry chain. The company's main business is film investment, distribution, cinema and cinema business.
The estimated net fund-raising is 1.243 billion yuan for film projects and cinema projects, plus content and cinemas, the former accounts for up to 80%. The film content industry is a capital-intensive industry, and financial strength is an important factor in building the core competitiveness of film enterprises. enterprises with brand and capital advantages are conducive to the integration of high-quality creative resources to protect the sustained and stable output of high-quality content.
The box office and social influence brought by the new mainstream blockbuster on the content side of Boehner Pictures has surpassed that of "American blockbuster"; the cinema license has been approved to promote the development of the full-length industrial chain.
The company's revenue growth rate from 2019 to 2021 was 11.9%,-48% and 94% respectively. After the epidemic in 2020, external events further accelerated the reshuffle of the industry. Boehner's film products pay equal attention to commercial and artistic production of more than 250 films, another stress test of the epidemic in 2022, high-quality director resources to provide the basis for high-quality output, shares in the upper reaches to complete all aspects of the industrial chain, bona Pictures is expected to continue the supply of high-quality content after returning to A-share, helping a big film country to become a film power.
After the cinema license of Bona Pictures was obtained in 2019, its box office in 2021 was 735 million yuan. It is not easy to achieve this result in the disturbance of the epidemic. Bona Pictures obtained the theater license in the industry reshuffle, which further shows that the brand effect and competitiveness of Bona Pictures and the holding of theater license also lay a solid foundation for the follow-up development.
The internal layout of the whole industry chain in the external epidemic stress test has reached a consensus and the market concentration has been further improved.
Cinema chain, as one of the important channels of content dissemination, has the periodic influence of epidemic situation in 2020 and 2022. Under the trend of high input threshold, the competitiveness of enterprises lies in the bargaining power of the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain, the sustainable output of content products and other comprehensive strength. If we look at the epidemic to accelerate market clearance in the medium and long term, the head enterprises are expected to increase their market share with the help of capital operation, and the impact of the epidemic will increase the pressure on the operation of small and medium-sized film casting, further push up the threshold for investment in cinemas, reduce the investment confidence of small and medium-sized film investment companies, and speed up the market reshuffle, and the market share of head enterprises or brand enterprises is expected to increase.
Profit forecast
We estimate that the revenue of Boehner Pictures from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.31 billion yuan, 3.78 billion yuan and 4.16 billion yuan respectively, and the return profits will be 354 million yuan, 405 million yuan and 475 million yuan respectively (year-on-year growth rates are-2.4%, 14.3% and 17.4% respectively). The assumption of profit growth in 2022 is mainly due to the fact that Changjin Lake is a dark horse champion film in 2021, and the performance fluctuation caused by the epidemic in 2022. In 2022, we still need to see the performance of the National Day archives. Bona Pictures has an issue price of 503 million yuan, and the total market value after release is expected to be 6.9 billion yuan. The corresponding PE in 2022-2024 is 19.5,17.1,14.6 times, and the EPS is 0.26,0.29,0.35 yuan.
We are optimistic about the return of Boehner Pictures, and the supply of high-quality content is expected to continue after landing in A-shares, helping a big film country to become a film power, measuring the thickness of Chinese culture with Chinese stories, covering it for the first time, and giving a "recommended" investment rating.
Risk hint
The local epidemic brings plate fluctuations; the risk of tighter regulation of the industry; the risk of intensified market competition; the risk of assuming that some of the data are not comparable; the risk that Bona Pictures' performance is not as expected; the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, the lack of schedule of fund-raising projects, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and so on.
