Us stocks soar and the Nasdaq enters a technical bull market

On August 10, local time, stimulated by the news of falling inflation, the three major indexes of US stocks opened higher and closed higher, hitting a three-month high.

Of these, the Dow rose 1.63% to close at 33309.51 points; the S & P 500 rose 2.13% to close at 4210.24, ending a four-day losing streak; and the NASDAQ rose 2.89% to close at 12854.80, up more than 20% from its mid-June low and entering a "technical bull market", but it is still down more than 20% from its November high. Although there is no official definition of a bull market on Wall Street, there is a saying that a volatility of more than 20% means entering a "bull market" or a "bear market".

On the day, the 11 major sectors of the S & P 500 index rose across the board. Large-scale technology stocks led the gains, while the semiconductor sector swept away the decline of the previous two days. NVIDIA Corp, Facebook parent company$Meta Platforms (META.US) $Increase by more than 5%$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM.US) $Increase by more than 4%$Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN.US) $、$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Increase by more than 3%$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $、$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $、$Alphabet Inc-CL C-C (GOOG.US) $It's up more than 2%. According to Meta, it received US $10 billion from the group's initial bond issue, which will be used for share buybacks and investment in business development.

$Walt Disney Company (DIS.US) $It rose 3.98%, up about 7% in after-hours trading, and the company's latest results exceeded expectations. In the third quarter of fiscal 2022, Walt Disney Company's revenue reached $21.504 billion, up 26 per cent from a year earlier, while net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached $1.409 billion, up 53 per cent from a year earlier. Walt Disney Company will increase the pricing of Disney+ ad-free streaming by $3, or 38%, to $10.99; the number of Disney+ subscribers in the second quarter was 152.1 million, higher than the 148.4 million analysts expected.

Most popular Chinese stocks rose, with the NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index up 1.61%.$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $涨4.59%，$still multiplier Section (HKD.US) $、$Li Auto Inc. (LI.US) $Increase by more than 2%$BABA (BABA.US) $、$Baidu, Inc. (BIDU.US) $Increase by more than 1%$JD.com (JD.US) $跌2.77%。

Us inflation figures fall backBut still at an all-time high.

The US consumer price index (CPI) was flat in July from a year earlier, up 8.5 per cent from 9.1 per cent in June, according to data released by the Labor Department. Expectations for a further big Fed rate hike abated, as did the dollar index and Treasury yields.

On a month-on-month basis, energy prices fell 4.6%, gasoline prices fell 7.7%, food prices rose 1.1%, and housing prices rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones survey expects CPI to rise 8.7%, or 0.2% month-on-month. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 5.9 per cent from a year earlier and 0.3 per cent month-on-month, below forecasts of 6.1 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively.

Us bond yields and the dollar index plunged sharply after the inflation data, and losses narrowed in late trading. Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management, believes that the decline in CPI data has made the Fed breathe a sigh of relief, especially given that the Fed mistakenly insisted last year that inflation was temporary. If we continue to see lower inflation data in the future, the Fed may start to slow the pace of monetary tightening. "said Davis.

However, although the inflation figure has fallen, it is still high. Among them, the food price index rose 10.9% from a year earlier, the biggest increase since May 1979. Although energy prices fell, electricity prices rose 1.6% month-on-month and 15.2% higher than the same period last year.

On the same day, international oil prices fluctuated sharply and rebounded quickly after intraday diving. The energy sector rose slightly, with Exxon Mobil Corp up nearly 1 per cent. Light crude oil for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up 1.58% at $91.93 a barrel, while London Brent crude for October delivery closed at $97.40 a barrel, up 1.13%.

According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration on the 10th, US commercial crude oil stocks stood at 432 million barrels last week, an increase of 5.5 million barrels from the previous week, while gasoline inventories dropped 5 million barrels from the previous week.

Fed officials say interest rate hikes continueThere is still a long way to go to beat inflation

So far this year, the Fed has raised interest rates by 225 basis points four times, including 75 basis points in June and July. On Wednesday, two local Fed officials commented on the decline in the price index, stressing that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates further to control inflation.

Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said that the July inflation data is the first positive turn since the Fed began monetary tightening policy, but inflation is still unacceptably high, and the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, which will reach 3.25%, 3.5% this year and 3.75%, 4% by the end of next year.

Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari believes that it is nice to see inflation decline, but the Fed is still a long way from announcing its victory over inflation, and the Fed still needs to raise interest rates further above the current 2.25% 2.5% interest rate level. He believes that interest rates reached 3.9% at the end of this year and 4.4% at the end of 2023. The market's idea of a rate cut early next year is unrealistic and the Fed will not do so unless it is convinced that inflation is moving towards its target of falling to 2 per cent.

Chris Zakarelli (Chris Zaccarelli), chief investment officer of the Alliance of Independent Advisers, believes that although a single month of data shows a decline in inflation, the market still needs more data to prove a continuing trend. "A month's change does not explain the trend, but at least headline inflation has gone down and core inflation has stopped rising. If future data show a decline in inflation, it will help the market see the end of the path of raising interest rates. "

The report on the implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the second quarter of 2022 released by the people's Bank of China points out that in the medium to long term, dividends such as globalization and abundant labor supply, which played an important role in curbing inflation in the first two decades of this century, have been reversed, superimposed by the current energy transformation and the rising cost of industrial chain reconstruction, and the stickiness and duration of this round of global inflation may be more severe than before.