Purchase analysis:
1. The issuance size of Tiandi convertible bonds is 172 million yuan, and the debt and main body are rated as A & A; the conversion share price is 12.47 yuan, and the conversion value is 102.89 yuan as of March 11, 2022; the arithmetic average of each annual coupon is 1.48 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 12%, which belongs to the general level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 11.33% maturity yield of 6-year grade A bond enterprises on March 11, 2022, the bottom of the debt is 64.49 yuan, and the value of pure debt is low. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 9.98%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 14.05%, there is a certain dilution pressure on the existing equity.
two。 As of March 11, 2022, Pan Pudun, Liu Jianhai and Han Qiong, the top three shareholders of the company, respectively held 13.43%, 12.29% and 10.14% of the total share capital, and the controlling shareholders did not promise to give priority to the placement. According to the current market income and environment, the size of the first day placement is expected to be about 68%. The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 55 million yuan. Since the maximum amount of new debt applied for by a single household is 1 million yuan, assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1150 and 12.5 million, the expected success rate is about 0.0004% 0.0005%.
3. The company is in the industry of other chemicals (Shenwan III). From the point of view of valuation, as of March 11, 2022, the company's PE (TTM) is 75.89 times, which is in the upstream level among 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 1.773 billion yuan, which is at a lower level in the industry. As of March 11, 2022, the company's stock has risen 14.04% so far this year, while the industry index has fallen 12.01%, and Wandequan A has fallen 12.01%. Since listing, the annualized volatility is 35.04%, and the stock is generally elastic. At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 7.02%, and the risk of equity pledge is low.
Other risk points: 1. Technical risk; 2. The risk of increased competition; 3. Overseas business operation and management risk; 4. The risk of a decline in gross profit margin; 5. The risk of bad debts in accounts receivable; 6. The risk of tax policy change; 7. The risk of continuous decline in performance.
4. The scale of Tiandi convertible bonds is small, the protection of the debt bottom is low, the parity is higher than the face value, the market may give a 21% premium, the listing price is expected to be about 124 yuan, it is suggested to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.