Purchase analysis:
1. The size of Hongfeng convertible bonds is 321 million yuan, and the debt and main body rating is grade A; the conversion share price is 6.92 yuan, and the conversion value is 101.45 yuan as of March 11, 2022; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.62 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 15%, which belongs to the general level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 11.33% maturity yield of 6-year grade A bond enterprises on March 11, 2022, the bottom of the debt is 66.48 yuan, and the value of pure debt is low. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 10.62%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 15.55%, there is a certain dilution pressure on the existing equity.
two。 As of March 11, 2022, the top three shareholders of the company, Chen Xiao, Lin Ping and Yu Jinjie, respectively held 38.71%, 3.53% and 1.66% of the total share capital. Chen Xiao, the controlling shareholder, promised to give priority to placing. According to the current market income and environment, the size of the first day of placement is expected to be about 68%. The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 103 million yuan, because the upper limit for individual households is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1150 and 12.5 million, the rate of success is expected to be around 0.0008% 0.0009%.
3. The company is in the industry of low-voltage equipment (Shenwan level III). From the perspective of valuation, as of March 11, 2022, the company's PE (TTM) is 47.04times, which is at a higher level among the 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 3.068 billion yuan, which is at a lower level in the industry. As of March 11, 2022, the company's shares have fallen 4.75% so far this year, while the industry index has fallen 12.01%, and Wandequan A has fallen 12.01%. Since listing, the annualized volatility is 67.18%, and the stock is more flexible.
At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 25.80%, which has a higher risk of equity pledge. Other risk points:
1. The risk of inventory price decline caused by raw material price fluctuation; 2. Macroeconomic downside risks; 3. The risk of customer concentration; 4. The risk of technical leakage and the loss of core technical personnel.
4. Hongfeng convertible bonds have a small scale, low debt protection, parity higher than face value, the market may give a 21% premium, the listing price is expected to be about 123 yuan, it is suggested to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.
