Purchase analysis:
1. The issuance size of Chongqing Bank convertible bonds is 13 billion yuan, and the debt and main body rating is AAA/AAA; the conversion share price is 11.28 yuan, and the conversion value is 84.04 yuan as of March 21, 2022; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.55 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 10%, which belongs to the general level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 3.56% maturity yield of 6-year AAA bond enterprises on March 21, 2022, the bottom of the debt is 97.05 yuan, and the value of pure debt is higher. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 33.17%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 50.76%, the dilution pressure on the existing equity is greater.
two。 As of March 21, 2022, the top three shareholders of the company, Hong Kong Securities Clearing (Agent) Co., Ltd., Chongqing Yufu Capital Operations Group Co., Ltd., and Dah Sing Bank Co., Ltd. held shares accounting for 32.20%, 13.93% and 13.20% of the total share capital, respectively. The controlling shareholder did not promise priority placement. According to the current market income and environment, the size of the first day placement is expected to be about 69%.
The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 4.03 billion yuan, because the upper limit for individual purchase is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1150 and 12.5 million, the expected success rate is about 0.0322%.
3. The company is in the industry of bank Ⅲ (Shenwan level III). From the point of view of valuation, as of March 21, 2022, the company's PE (TTM) is 7.06times, which is at a low level among 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 32.938 billion yuan, which is at a higher level in the industry. As of March 21, 2022, the company's stock has risen 6.52% so far this year, while the industry index has fallen 12.78%, and Wandequan A has fallen 12.78%. Since listing, the annualized volatility is 33.18%, and the stock is generally elastic.
At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 11.27%, and the risk of equity pledge is general. Other risk points:
1. Credit risk; 2. Market risk; 3. Liquidity risk; 4. The risk of capital adequacy ratio; 5. Operational risk
4. Chongqing Bank convertible bonds have a large scale, adequate protection of debt bottoms, parity lower than face value, the market may give a 30% premium, and the listing price is expected to be about 109 yuan. It is recommended to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.