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US stock outlook | US CPI growth slowed in July, and futures on the three major stock indexes rose

富途資訊 · Aug 10, 2022 20:38

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全球宏观

周三盘前，美国7月CPI增速放缓，美股三大股指期货走高

美国7月CPI同比增加8.5%，预期增8.7%，前值增9.1%。CPI数据公布后，美股三大股指期货直线拉升。纳指期货涨近2%，道指期货涨近1%，标普500指数期货涨1%。

机构评美国CPI数据称，7月份美国通胀明显放缓，给美国货币政策制定者和消费者带来了通胀已经见顶的希望。

财经网站Forexlive表示，这份通胀报告是一些股票多头投资者期待的绿灯。9月份加息75个基点的隐含几率从昨日的68%降至31%。

美元指数DXY向下触及105，日内跌1.05%。

22年来最深倒挂！关键美债收益率倒挂近50个基点

周二，因市场预期美联储利率将从当前的2.25%-2.5%区间升至3.5%左右的高点，美国2年期/10年期国债收益率曲线的倒挂程度进一步扩大，2年期国债收益率较10年期国债收益率高出近50个基点，上一次达到这一水平是在2000年8月。如果倒挂幅度继续扩大几个基点，将刷新1980年以来之最，预示着美国经济将完全陷入与当年类似的滞胀状态，也表明市场预期鲍威尔可能继续激进加息，就像当年的沃尔克。

美银客户以2008年来最快速度买入科技股

美国银行的Jill Hall周二发布报告指出，该行客户上周以2008年以来最快的速度向科技行业投入资金，投资者快速转投科技股或是受到近日股指的大幅反弹推动。

具体数据显示，美国银行客户上周买入了超过30亿美元的科技股，美股总流入净额达到18亿美元。但Hall表示，随着盈利修正将拖累科技股走低，投资者面临着巨大风险。这意味着科技行业可能无法再像过去十年那样，被投资者当作防御型投资。

高盛：信贷环境恶化影响有限，并购市场持续活跃

高盛策略师Sienna Mori认为，全球并购交易在抵御融资成本上升、管理层信心下滑和一系列经济挑战等方面表现出惊人的弹性，因为企业逐渐意识到「加强和多样化业务组合以抵御巨大宏观冲击的重要性」。外媒汇编的数据显示，即使在传统上较为平静的夏季，仅周一就有规模达到221亿美元的并购交易额「官宣」。该分析师认为，杠杆收购将有望达到去年的水平。

美国公共养老基金Q2亏损8.86%，创疫情以来最差季度表现

咨询机构威尔希尔信托环球比较服务周二发布的报告显示，公共养老基金第二季度的回报率中值为-8.86%，截至6月30日的12个月的回报率中值为-7.91%。相比之下，该机构追踪的所有基金的第二季度回报率中值为-9.63%，过去12个月回报率中值为-10.59%。养老基金三年前的回报率为6.46%，五年前为6.82%。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前普涨

马斯克表示若未能收购推特则回购特斯拉股票

当地时间周二，据SEC文件显示，特斯拉CEO马斯克于8月5日合共出售330万股$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$股票，并于8月8日再出售158.4万股、8月9日出售304万股。三日共计出售至少792万股特斯拉股票，价值68.9亿美元。他表示，$Twitter(TWTR.US)$正迫使他达成收购案，所以这次抛售是为了该收购计划筹资，避免到时候在市场上紧急套现，目前已完成股票出售。

此外，马斯克回复网友称，如果推特交易最终没有成功，他会买回这些特斯拉股票。截至发稿，特斯拉盘前涨超4%，Twitter涨近4%。

CarLotz盘前大涨超33%，SFT将以全股票交易方式收购公司

$CarLotz(LOTZ.US)$盘前涨超33%，$Shift Technologies(SFT.US)$跌超2%。消息称，在线汽车购买服务商Shift Technologies将以全股票交易方式收购CarLotz。该交易预计将在第四季度完成。如果这笔交易在2022年底完成，合并后的公司预计将拥有1.25亿美元的现金。合并后的公司将继续在纳斯达克交易，股票代码为SFT。

The Trade Desk盘前涨近17%，Q2营收、Q3营收指引均超预期

$The Trade Desk(TTD.US)$盘前涨近17%。该公司第二季度营收3.77亿美元，高于市场预期的3.652亿美元；调整后稀释后每股盈余0.2美元，符合市场预期。公司预计，第三季度营收至少为3.85亿美元，市场预期为3.823亿美元；调整后EBITDA为1.4亿美元。

Roblox盘前大跌超14%，二季度营收逊预期

元宇宙游戏公司$Roblox(RBLX.US)$盘前跌14.26%，报40.6美元。公司二季度营收5.912亿美元，市场预期6.26亿美元；净亏损1.764亿美元，每股亏损0.3美元，亏损幅度大于市场预期的21美分。

台积电7月销售额同比增长50%

$台积电(TSM.US)$盘前涨0.77%，报85.87美元。稍早前，台积电公布7月销售数据，合并销售额约1867.63亿新台币，环比增长6.2%，同比增长49.9%。2022年1月-7月的销售总额为12119.79亿新台币，较2021年同期增长41.1%。

欧盟有望在今秋批准辉瑞-BioNTech针对奥密克戎开发的新冠疫苗

欧盟监管机构发言人表示，欧洲药品管理局有望在今年秋天批准$辉瑞(PFE.US)$-$BioNTech(BNTX.US)$开发的针对奥密克戎变异株的新冠疫苗。今年6月，辉瑞和德国BioNTech SE表示，二者针对奥密克戎开发的两款新冠疫苗均引发了「高度免疫应答」。其中一款是针对奥密克戎的加强疫苗、另一款是针对原始病毒和奥密克戎的二价疫苗。

本田汽车Q1归母净利润同比下降32.9%，上调全年营收及营业利润预期

$本田汽车(HMC.US)$Q1营收3.83万亿日元，上年同期为3.58万亿日元，同比增长6.9%;归母净利润为1492.19亿日元，上年同期为2225.12亿日元，同比下降32.9%。基本及摊薄后归母每股收益均为87.23日元，上年同期为128.87日元，同比下降41.6%。营业利润为2222.16亿日元，上年同期为2432.10亿日元，同比下降8.6%;营业利润率为5.8%，上年同期为6.8%。该公司指出，原材料成本大幅上涨对一季度营业利润造成负面影响。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前普跌

软银：董事会同意结算大量阿里巴巴ADR的远期合约，收益或达2000亿

$阿里巴巴(BABA.US)$公告，本公司股东软银今日宣布，其董事会已批准提前股份结算软银先前与数家金融机构交易对手订立的使用软银持有的部分本公司股份筹集资金的若干预付远期合约。将提前结算的预付远期合约涉及最多本公司约2.42亿股的本公司美国存托股份，占本公司已发行股份总数的约9%。根据软银作出的公开披露，上述股份结算将于2022年8月中开始，预计将于2022年9月底完成。上述股份结算完成后，软银预计其实益拥有的本公司股份（包括用于持续变现交易的股份）将相当于本公司已发行股份总数的约14.6%。

早期股东Baillie Gifford大手减持阿里巴巴？据悉为ADR转仓香港

据相关文件显示，以苏格兰为基地的英国投资管理公司Baillie Gifford第二季调整投资组合，作为$阿里巴巴(BABA.US)$的早期投资者，几乎全数沽清阿里巴巴持股，持仓量由原本的175万股，降至只有13股，$京东(JD.US)$持仓亦由原本的约6.8万股，降至只有1股。据了解，Baillie Gifford的阿里巴巴持仓由美转港，即由美国上市的ADR转至香港上市的普通股。因应美国SEC只要求投资公司披露美股持仓，因此有关转仓活动不会反映在披露文件。

传蔚来手机将定位高端：顶配价格超7000元

有海外媒体报道称，$蔚来(NIO.US)$的第一款手机定位为高端旗舰，将会搭载高通的第二代骁龙8移动平台。根据爆料显示，这款手机其他配置方面将采用4500-4800mAh电池，支持100W以上的快充，价格也不便宜，起步价可能超过5000元人民币，最高配置可达7000元。据推断，蔚来的第一款手机，料在明年上半年登场。此前蔚来创始人李斌表示，目前蔚来手机正在推进中，预计未来会像苹果一样，一年推出一款。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒：

20:30 美国7月未季调CPI年率、美国7月未季调核心CPI年率

22:00 美国6月批发销售月率

23:00 2023年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯就美国经济和货币政策进行讨论

编辑/new

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Global macro

Before Wednesday, US CPI growth slowed in July, and futures of the three major US stock indexes rose.

In the United States, CPI rose 8.5% in July from a year earlier, with an expected increase of 8.7% and a previous increase of 9.1%.After the release of CPI data, the futures of the three major stock indexes of US stocks rose in a straight line. Nasdaq futures rose nearly 2%, Dow futures rose nearly 1%, and S & P 500 index futures rose 1%.

Institutional review of US CPI data said that US inflation slowed significantly in July, giving US monetary policy makers and consumers hope that inflation has peaked.

Forexlive, a financial website, said the inflation report was the green light that some stock bulls were looking forward to. The implied probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September fell to 31 per cent from 68 per cent yesterday.

The dollar index, DXY, hit 105, down 1.05 per cent on the day.

The deepest upside down in 22 years! Key Treasury yields hang upside down to nearly 50 basis points

On Tuesday, in anticipation of a rise in Fed interest rates to a high of about 3.5 per cent from the current 2.25 per cent range, the inverted 2-year / 10-year yield curve widened further, with the two-year yield nearly 50 basis points higher than the 10-year yield, a level last reached in August 2000. If the upside-down continues to expand by a few basis points, it will be the biggest since 1980, indicating that the US economy will completely fall into a state of stagflation similar to that of that year, and that the market expects Powell to continue to raise interest rates aggressively, just like Volcker.

Bank of America clients buy technology stocks at the fastest pace since 2008

Bank of America Corporation's Jill Hall released a report on Tuesday that the bank's clients poured money into the technology industry last week at the fastest pace since 2008, and that investors' rapid switch to technology stocks may be driven by the recent sharp rebound in the stock index.

Specific data show that Bank of America Corporation's clients bought more than $3 billion in technology stocks last week, with total net inflows of US stocks reaching $1.8 billion. But investors face huge risks as the earnings correction will drag technology stocks lower, Hall said. This means that the technology industry may no longer be treated as a defensive investment by investors as it has been in the past decade.

Goldman Sachs Group: the impact of the deterioration of the credit environment is limited, and the M & A market remains active.

Sienna Mori, a strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, believes that global M & A transactions have shown amazing resilience in resisting rising financing costs, declining management confidence and a series of economic challenges, as companies gradually realize the importance of "strengthening and diversifying their business portfolios to withstand huge macro shocks". Data compiled by foreign media show that even in the traditionally calmer summer, there were $22.1 billion worth of M & A deals on Monday alone. The analyst believes that leveraged buyouts are expected to reach last year's level.

Us public pension fund Q2 lost 8.86%, the worst quarterly performance since the epidemic

Public pension funds posted a median return of-8.86% in the second quarter and-7.91% in the 12 months to June 30, according to a report released Tuesday by the Wilshere trust global comparison service. By contrast, the median return for all funds tracked by the agency was-9.63 per cent in the second quarter and-10.59 per cent over the past 12 months. Pension funds returned 6.46% three years ago, compared with 6.82% five years ago.

Hot news

Star technology stocks rose before the market.

Musk said that if he fails to acquire Twitter, he will buy back Tesla, Inc. 's shares.

Tesla, Inc. CEO Musk sold a total of 3.3 million shares on August 5, according to SEC documents on Tuesday, local time.$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The shares were sold on August 8 and 3.04 million on August 8 and August 9 respectively. A total of at least 7.92 million Tesla, Inc. shares were sold in three days, worth 6.89 billion US dollars. He said that $Twitter (TWTR.US) $is forcing him to close the acquisition, so the sell-off is to raise money for the acquisition plan to avoid emergency cash in the market at that time, and the share sale has now been completed.

In addition, Musk replied to netizens that if the Twitter deal is not successful, he will buy back the Tesla, Inc. shares. As of press time, Tesla, Inc. was up over 4% before trading, and Twitter was up nearly 4%.

CarLotz rose more than 33% before trading. SFT will buy the company through all-stock trading.

$CarLotz (LOTZ.US) $It rose by more than 33% before trading.$Shift Technologies (SFT.US) $It fell by more than 2%. Shift Technologies, an online car-buying service, will buy CarLotz in an all-stock deal, the source said. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter. If the deal closes by the end of 2022, the combined company is expected to have $125 million in cash. The combined company will continue to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SFT.

The Trade Desk rose nearly 17% before trading. Q2 revenue and Q3 revenue guidelines both exceeded expectations.

$The Trade Desk (TTD.US) $It was up nearly 17% before trading. The company's second-quarter revenue was $377 million, higher than market expectations of $365.2 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.20, in line with market expectations. The company expects third-quarter revenue of at least $385 million and the market is expected to be $382.3 million; adjusted EBITDA is $140 million.

Roblox fell more than 14% before trading, and revenue in the second quarter was lower than expected.

Yuan Universe Games Co., Ltd.$Roblox (RBLX.US) $It fell 14.26% to $40.6 in pre-market trading. The company's second-quarter revenue was $591.2 million and the market expected $626 million; a net loss of $176.4 million, or $0.30 per share, was larger than the market's expected loss of 21 cents.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd's sales increased by 50% in July compared with the same period last year.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM.US) $It rose 0.77% to $85.87 before trading. Earlier, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd released sales figures for July, showing consolidated sales of about NT $186.763 billion, up 6.2 per cent from the previous month and 49.9 per cent from a year earlier. Total sales from January to July 2022 were NT $1.211979 trillion, an increase of 41.1 per cent over the same period in 2021.

The European Union is expected to approve the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc-BioNTech against O'Micron this autumn.

A spokesman for EU regulators said the European Drug Administration is expected to approve it this fall.$Pfizer Inc (PFE.US) $-$BioNTech (BNTX.US) $The COVID-19 vaccine against O'Micron mutant was developed. In June, Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE of Germany said that both COVID-19 vaccines developed for O'Micron had triggered a "high immune response". One is a fortified vaccine for O'Micron, and the other is a bivalent vaccine for the original virus and O'Micron.

Honda Q1's net profit fell 32.9% compared with the same period last year, raising its annual revenue and operating profit forecast.

$Honda (HMC.US) $Q1 revenue was 3.83 trillion yen, up 6.9% from 3.58 trillion yen in the same period last year, while net profit was 149.219 billion yen, compared with 222.512 billion yen in the same period last year, down 32.9% from a year earlier. Both basic and diluted earnings per share were 87.23 yen, compared with 128.87 yen in the same period last year, down 41.6 percent from the same period last year. Operating profit was 222.216 billion yen, compared with 243.21 billion yen a year earlier, down 8.6% from a year earlier; operating profit margin was 5.8%, compared with 6.8% in the same period last year. The company pointed out that the sharp rise in raw material costs had a negative impact on first-quarter operating profit.

Focus on China-listed stocks

Popular US-listed stocks fell before the market.

Softbank Corp.: the board of directors agreed to settle a large number of BABA ADR's forward contracts, the profit may reach 200 billion

$BABA (BABA.US) $Announcement, Softbank Corp., a shareholder of the Company, announced today that its board of directors has approved a number of prepaid forward contracts previously concluded by Softbank Corp. with counterparties of several financial institutions to raise funds using some of the shares held by Softbank Corp. in the Company. The prepaid forward contract to be settled in advance involves a maximum of approximately 242 million American depositary shares of the Company, accounting for approximately 9 per cent of the total number of shares issued by the Company. According to a public disclosure made by Softbank Corp., the settlement of the shares will begin in mid-August 2022 and is expected to be completed by the end of September 2022. Upon completion of the settlement of the above shares, Softbank Corp. expects that the shares of the Company beneficially owned by him (including those used for continuing cash transactions) will be equivalent to about 14.6% of the total number of shares issued by the Company.

Early shareholder Baillie Gifford master reduced his holdings of BABA? It is reported that ADR is transferred to Hong Kong.

According to documents, Baillie Gifford, a UK investment management company based in Scotland, adjusted its portfolio in the second quarter as$BABA (BABA.US) $Early investors sold almost all of BABA's shares, and their position decreased from 1.75 million shares to only 13 shares.$JD.com (JD.US) $The position also decreased from about 68000 shares to only 1 share. It is understood that BABA of Baillie Gifford transferred his position from the United States to Hong Kong, that is, from US-listed ADR to Hong Kong-listed common shares. As the US SEC only requires investment companies to disclose their positions in US stocks, the relevant conversion activities will not be reflected in the disclosure documents.

Chuanweilai mobile phone will be located at the high end: the top price is more than 7000 yuan.

There are overseas media reports that$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $The first mobile phone is positioned as a high-end flagship and will carry Qualcomm Inc's second-generation Snapdragon 8 mobile platform. According to revelations, the phone will use a 4500-4800mAh battery in other configurations, supporting a fast charge of more than 100W, and the price is not cheap, with a starting price of more than 5000 yuan and a maximum configuration of 7000 yuan. It is inferred that NIO Inc. 's first mobile phone is expected to debut in the first half of next year. Earlier, Li Bin, founder of NIO Inc., said that NIO Inc. 's mobile phone is under way and is expected to launch one a year, just like Apple Inc.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Us stock macro calendar reminder:

20:30 Us July unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate, US July unseasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate

22:00 Monthly Wholesale sales rate in the United States in June

23:00In 2023, Evans, chairman of the Chicago Federal Reserve and FOMC voting committee, discussed US economic and monetary policy

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