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长城汽车(601633):产销持续恢复 全球化加速落地

Great Wall Motor (601633): continuous recovery of production and marketing and accelerated landing of globalization

民生證券 ·  Aug 10, 2022 11:31  · Researches

Summary of the event: on August 8, 2022, Great Wall Motor released July production and sales KuaiBao: July car production of 102200, year-on-year + 15.02%; car sales of 101900, + 11.32%.

The production and marketing order has been restored smoothly, and the sales performance is expected to continue to improve in the second half of the year. Great Wall car sales in July 101900, year-on-year + 11.32% / month-on-month + 0.73%, for two consecutive months of positive year-on-year growth, and July month-on-month positive, the company's production and sales continued to recover. From a brand point of view, the sales of Harvard / Tank / Euler / WEY/ pickup trucks are 1.250.88 / 0.30pm respectively, which are + 7.14%, 128.03%, 21.76%, 24.26% and 7.53%, respectively, compared with the same brand. Among them, the performance of tanks is eye-catching compared with the previous month, mainly driven by the sales of Tank 300,500 series. In the first half of the year, the supply chain restricted the release of production and marketing. With the recovery of the supply chain after the epidemic and the gradual introduction of point B supply of ESP, the bottleneck restricting the release of the company's production capacity was gradually opened. With policies such as going to the countryside and reducing purchase tax in the second half of the year to stimulate consumer demand; supply and demand quickly resume the superimposed new product cycle, the company's sales are expected to continue to improve.

The strategic effect of brand differentiation is prominent, and the optimization of product structure promotes the brand upward. By brand. 1) Harvard: Harvard H6 sold 27600 vehicles, + 7.35% compared with the same period last year; the new car Harvard Big Dog hunting version sold 10,000 vehicles, + 19.36% compared with the same period last year; KuGou will go on sale in August with a price of 1.258-149800 yuan, leading in intelligent configuration. Positioning younger users is expected to bring new increments. 2) Wey: latte DHT has been launched in June, further improving the product structure of the WEY brand, and the subsequent launch of new cars such as dream fulfillment is expected to gradually boost brand sales; 3) Euler: ballet cats will be officially launched in July, and Lightning Cats / punk cats will also be available in the second half of the year; 4) tanks:

Since the launch of the tank 300, the cumulative delivery volume has exceeded 130000, and the monthly sales of high-end products tank 500 are 2518. At present, there are abundant orders on hand, and the launch of the high-end model tank 700x800 is expected to lead to a rise in the volume and price of the brand.

By optimizing the product matrix, the company's car sales of more than 200000 yuan in July increased to 21% compared with the previous month. The strong product cycle continues in the second half of the year, and models such as Harvard Cool Dog, Latte DHT, Dream come true, Lightning Cat and Punk Cat are expected to be launched in the second half of the year. With the intensive launch of blockbuster new cars of various brands, the company is expected to usher in a new situation of rising volume and price.

The intelligent transformation has progressed steadily, and the globalization strategy has been accelerated. Through the establishment of coffee intelligent ecological alliance, the company has fully integrated the core resources of the upstream, middle and downstream industrial chain, and has the ability of self-research of core technologies in all-dimensional intelligent fields, such as intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, intelligent service and so on. it can provide users with leading intelligent products and digital services, and accelerate the transformation of the company to a global intelligent enterprise. Intelligent models accounted for 88.32% of sales in July, and further improvement is expected. At present, the company's cumulative overseas sales have exceeded one million, and have been exported to more than 170 countries and regions around the world, with nearly 700 overseas sales channels. In July, Great Wall Motor announced the formal establishment of intelligent new energy models produced by his Brazilian factory and Great Wall Motor Malaysia sales Co., Ltd.; in August, Great Wall Motor signed a contract with Emil Frey for joint marketing of Wei brand Mocha PHEV and Ola good cats, and the new car will be officially delivered in the fourth quarter of this year. The company accelerates the expansion of the European market and accelerates the landing of the globalization strategy.

Investment suggestion: the company's net return profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 156.57 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding share price PE is twice as much as that of 31-19-16. It is expected that the company will fully benefit from the industrial policy, optimistic about the development of electric intelligence and multi-brand strategy, and maintain the "recommended" rating.

Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate, chip supply is not as expected, and epidemic control is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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