Purchase analysis:
1. The issuance size of Shenglan convertible bonds is 330 million yuan, and the debt and main body rating is AA-/AA-; the conversion share price is 23.45 yuan, and the conversion value is 96.59 yuan as of March 29, 2022; the arithmetic average of each annual coupon is 1.33 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 12%, which belongs to the general level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 6.69% maturity yield of 6-year AA- bond enterprises on March 29, 2022, the bottom of the debt is 81.98 yuan, and the value of the pure debt is average. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 9.45%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 26.56%, there is a certain dilution pressure on the total equity, and the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is greater.
two。 As of March 29, 2022, the first two major shareholders of the company, Shenglan Investment Holdings Co., Ltd., and Daejeon Shengzhi Blue Trading Partnership (Limited Partnership), respectively, accounted for 60.58% and 5.36% of the total share capital, respectively, and the controlling shareholders did not promise priority placement. According to the current market income and environment, the size of the first day placement is expected to be about 52%. The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 158 million yuan, because the upper limit for individual household purchase is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1050 and 11.5 million, the expected success rate is about 0.0014%. 0.0015%.
3. The company is in the industry of electronic components manufacturing (Shenwan level III). From the point of view of valuation, as of March 29, 2022, the company's PE (TTM) is 32.86 times, which is in the average level among 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 3.373 billion yuan, which is at a lower level in the same industry.
As of March 29, 2022, the company's stock has fallen 25.30% so far this year, while the industry index has fallen 15.23% over the same period. Wandequan A has dropped 15.23%. Since listing, the annualized volatility is 77.76%, and the stock has high elasticity. At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 13.60%, and the risk of equity pledge is general.
Other risk points: 1. Risk of loss of core technical personnel; 2. Risk of trade friction between China and the United States; 3. The risk of raw material cost fluctuation; 4. Product gross profit margin decline risk; 5. The risk of exchange rate fluctuations 4. The scale of Shenglan convertible bond is small, the debt bottom protection is general, the parity is lower than the face value, the market may give a 25% premium, the listing price is expected to be about 121 yuan, it is suggested to actively participate in the purchase of new debt.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.
