Event: Guizhou Moutai released its semi-annual report of 2022, 22H1's total revenue was 59.444 billion yuan, an increase of 17.20% over the same period last year, and its mother's net profit was 29.794 billion yuan, an increase of 20.85% over the same period last year. Q2's total revenue in a single quarter was 26.256 billion yuan, an increase of 15.89 percent over the same period last year, and the net profit returned to its mother was 12.549 billion yuan, an increase of 17.29 percent over the same period last year.
Q2 series wine has a higher growth rate, the proportion of direct sales has significantly increased, and the contribution of e-commerce platform has increased. Although the epidemic has been repeated in the second quarter, Maotai demand resilience is more prominent, mobile sales have not been much affected, Q2 single-quarter revenue growth of nearly 16% year-on-year, in line with previous market expectations. 1) from the product point of view, the revenue of 22Q2 Maotai / series liquor is 21.105 billion yuan, an increase of 14.97% and 22.02% over the same period last year. Maotai has a steady performance and a relatively outstanding increase in the series of liquors. It is estimated that 1935 of Maotai has contributed a higher increase. 2) from the perspective of different channels, the revenue of 22Q2 direct sales / wholesale channels was 100.62 billion yuan, an increase of 112.87% over the same period last year / a decrease of 10.76%. The sales channels continued to be optimized, and the revenue from direct sales channels increased significantly, accounting for 39.81% of the main business income, an increase of 18.1% compared with the previous year / month. At the end of March, the e-commerce platform "I Maotai" was put into trial operation at the end of March, and the Q2 contribution was relatively high, realizing 4.416 billion yuan of alcohol excluding tax income. Among them, Maotai 1935 and Xiaomao 100ML performed better in the e-commerce platform, while the revenue of traditional wholesale channels continued to decline after Q1. 3) as of the end of Q2, the total number of dealers of the company was 2188, which was 2 less than that at the end of Q1.
Profitability rises steadily, and there is a periodic disturbance in cash flow. 1) the gross profit margin of 22Q2 is 91.78%, which is slightly higher than the same period last year. The estimated average price has increased under the optimization of channel structure. In addition, the proportion of series wines has increased, which may have a certain impact on the gross profit margin. 2) 22Q2 sales expense rate 3.72%, slightly increased 0.53pct compared with the same period last year, management and R & D expense rate 5.86%, decreased 1.72pct year-on-year, tax and additional items accounted for 16.66% of total revenue, increased 2.86pct year-on-year, overall return net interest rate 47.79%, increased 0.57pct over the same period last year. 3) 22Q2 sales cash rebate of 29.669 billion yuan, an increase of 6.08% over the same period last year. Combined with the Q1 cash payback increase of 41.20% over the same period last year, the pace is estimated to be adjusted. Q2 the net cash flow of operating activities was 6.865 billion yuan, down 70.42% from the same period last year, and the net cash flow of operating activities in the first half of the year was negative. This is mainly due to the decrease in the net increase in customer deposits and interbank deposits in financial companies of holding subsidiaries, as well as the net increase in deposits in the central bank and interbank deposits. As of the end of Q2, the contract liability was 9.669 billion yuan, an increase of 1.347 billion yuan over the end of Q1.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: under the Q2 epidemic, the company has strong business resilience and performance certainty. At present, most areas have completed the payment in July and the goods have been delivered one after another. The progress of the payment is estimated to be 60%. The bulk bottle price of Feitian Moutai is 2750-2800 yuan per bottle, and the whole box price is about 3100 yuan, which is relatively stable. The company will continue the marketing reform, and the follow-up "I Maotai" will help to enrich the direct business channels and strengthen the online and offline coordination. In addition, since the end of last year, we have launched treasures Maotai, Tiger year Zodiac Liquor, Moutai 1935, 100ML Feitian Maotai, etc., to optimize the product structure.
Continue to reform to release dividends, 22 years of growth is expected to accelerate, maintain the 2022-24 EPS forecast of 49.21157.29amp 65.84 yuan, the current stock price corresponding to Pmax E is 39-33-29 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the demand for high-end liquor is weak, the channel reform is not as expected, and the domestic epidemic situation is repeated.