Event: Great Wall Motor released July 2022 production and sales of KuaiBao, the company's July sales of 101920 vehicles, + 11.3% year-on-year. In terms of brands, Harvard brand sold 61279 vehicles in July, compared with + 7.1% year-on-year sales of 3034 vehicles, year-on-year sales of-24.3%; Great Wall pick-up truck sales of 16305, year-on-year-7.5%; Euler brand sales of 8829, + 21.8%; tank brand sales of 12473, + 128.0%.
The comments are as follows:
Sales continued to improve, with overseas sales hitting record highs. The company's July sales rose 15.0% from a year earlier, up 0.7% from a month earlier. The company's sales volume achieved double-digit growth in the traditional off-season, mainly due to the gradual fading of unfavorable factors such as material shortage and supply chain constraints at the production end, and the demand side was able to accelerate the recovery due to the halving of purchase tax.
The new car cycle continues to advance, and a number of new models are launched in the second half of the year to enrich the product matrix. The new models that the company has launched this year include the tank 500 positioning medium and large business luxury SUV, the Mocha DHT-PHEV and latte DHT-PHEV based on lemon hybrid system and coffee intelligent platform, the fashionable commercial pickup truck Kumgang, the Euler brand's first female car ballet cat, and the Harvard Chao Cool driving Haverku Dog. In the second half of the year, a number of new electrified and intelligent products such as Harvard H6 Hybrid, Wei Brand Dream come true, Euler Lightning Cat and punk Cat will be launched to further enrich the company's product matrix. We judge that the advance of the new car cycle, superimposed Harvard, tanks and other brand models benefit from the purchase tax halving policy, which provides support for the company's sales growth.
In the medium and long term, institutional change and technological innovation will help the company transform to electric intelligence. The company changed the underlying structure, the enterprise orientation changed from "automobile manufacturing enterprise" to "user service operation enterprise", and the business model changed to "product + software + service", which laid the foundation for it to effectively tap the market demand. A number of research and development achievements of the company have been landed one after another. at present, lemon DHT hybrid technology, hydrogen energy related technology, 3.0T+9AT/9HAT super powertrain and other technologies have been carried on the products. In the critical period of the reform of electric intelligence in the automotive industry, the company is a traditional independent car company with early transformation. The long-term accumulation of core technology and the product strategy of each brand focusing on subdivision are important driving forces for the company's continuous transformation of electric intelligence.
Company profit forecast and investment rating: with the improvement of material supply, the promotion of the new car cycle is an important support for the company's sales and performance improvement. In the medium and long term, under the opportunity of the rise of independent new energy, the proportion of the company's electric intelligent products has been further enhanced and the transformation has been accelerated. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 87.3,110.8 and 12.65 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.94,1.20,1.37 yuan respectively.
The closing price on August 8, 2022 corresponds to the PE value of 34, 27 and 24 times for 2022-2024, respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: the alleviation of core shortage in the industry is not as expected; passenger car sales are not as expected; raw material prices are rising; and the development of new energy technologies is not as expected.