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美国降通胀法案出炉在即,谁有望成最大赢家?

The US inflation reduction bill is about to be released. Who is expected to be the biggest winner?

富途資訊 ·  Aug 9, 2022 21:28

August 7, Eastern time, 18 months of climate, tax and health care bill finally ushered in the decisive moment.

The U.S. Senate voted to pass the inflation reduction bill, which is now before the House of Representatives, which is expected to vote on Friday and then hand it over to the White House, which President Biden will sign into law.

Overall, the bill is expected to generate $739 billion in revenue and $433 billion in expenditure(including $369 billion in investment in energy and climate change projects and $64 billion in health subsidies)And cut the deficit by as much as $300 billion over the next decade. In addition, the bill plans to impose a minimum 15 per cent corporate tax on companies with profits of more than $1 billion and a 1 per cent consumption tax on share buybacks.

So, specific to the terms, which industries are expected to be the biggest winners?

  • Clean energy manufacturing industry

The nearly $370 billion climate investment bill focuses on clean energy manufacturing, including solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, electric vehicles, hydrogen production and key minerals.

Three Clean Energy ETFGlobal Clean Energy ETF-iShares (ICLN.US) $$First Trust Nasdaq Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (QCLN.US) $$Invesco solar ETF (TAN.US) $It has risen by about 14 per cent, 16 per cent and 17 per cent respectively since July 26.

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Overnight, clean energy-related stocks strengthened, with $Sunworks (SUNW.US) $up nearly 12% $fuel cell Energy (FCEL.US) $up more than 7%, $first solar energy (FSLR.US) $, $PLUG.US energy $up more than 4%.

According to Futuo Niuniu, clean energy stocks have far outperformed the market in the past 10 days, of which$TPI Composites (TPIC.US) $Tired up by more than 75%$Array Technologies (ARRY.US) $Increase by more than 50%$Sunrun (RUN.US) $$SunPower (SPWR.US) $Wait for an increase of more than 40%.

  • American New Energy vehicle Industry

The driving effect of the Climate Investment Act on the US new energy vehicle industry should not be underestimated, and it will also increase clean energy demand through tax credits.

CITIC believes that the inflation reduction Act has a strong fiscal stimulus in the area of investment in new energy vehicles and related infrastructure, such as some core measures, such as maintaining a $7500 tax credit for new energy vehicles, abolishing the cap on sales of 200000 tax credits, and a $4000 tax credit for second-hand electric vehicles.It will help to further improve the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the United States.

It is worth noting that the bill removes the subsidy ceiling of 200000 for individual car companies' cumulative sales, bringing Tesla, Inc., General Motors Co and Toyota Motor Corp back to the list of car companies that enjoy tax credits.

Overnight, most new energy vehicle stocks rose, with $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) $up nearly 7%, $General Motors Co (GM.US) $up more than 4%, $F.US (F.US) $and $Lucid (LCID.US) $up more than 3%.

  • Medical insurance industry

$64 billion of the inflation reduction Act is spent on health care, while Medicare will be given the authority for the first time to negotiate the price of certain drugs directly with drugmakers.

The final version of the bill limits out-of-pocket prescription drugs to $2000 a year for the elderly and enables Medicare to negotiate the prices of 10 drugs in four years' time. The bill also opens the door for a massive increase in Obamacare premiums and extends premiums for all middle-income Americans to the next three years.

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