On Monday, a survey by the New York Fed showed that US consumer inflation expectations for the coming year fell to 6.22 per cent in July from 6.78 per cent in June, the lowest since February and the biggest month-on-month drop in inflation expectations. Consumer expectations for inflation over the next three years fell to 3.18%, the lowest since April last year. However, in the face of Friday's strong employment report, economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co, Evercore ISI and LH Meyer believe that the US is likely to raise interest rates even more this year, and Citi even expects the Fed to raise interest rates by a full percentage point in September.

It can be said that Wall Street is still dominated by recession talk recently. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson (Mike Wilson) team called the current rebound in U. S. stocks a "bear market rebound." He said that while he thought inflation had peaked and "may even fall faster than the market currently expects", this still does not bode well for the stock market, with a new round of declines likely to begin in September. But Mislav Matejka, chief strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, remains bullish on the stock market.

In a new research note to clients on Monday, Matejka said: "We believe that as the stock market begins to enter the year-end stage, the risk and return of stocks will increase. In fact, we think we have entered a stage where weak economic data are seen by the market as good news, which may lead to a shift in Fed policy, and the slowdown in economic activity may prove to be less severe than feared. "

Motorcycle strategist Matejka lists his top 10 reasons to be bullish on the stock market:

1. Valuations are attractive both in absolute terms and in comparison with fixed income.

2. Institutional investors have higher levels of cash and a growing willingness to start investing.

3. At presentInvestor sentiment is too pessimistic (often seen as a bullish indicator of stocks).

4. The Fed's hawkish attitude may have peaked.

5. The dollar may have peaked this year.

6. The economic slowdown shows no signs of a deep recession.

7. High-income consumers remain flexible.

8. Wall Street's earnings forecasts are unlikely to be cut sharply.

9. The excess savings established during COVID-19 's epidemic are still providing a buffer for consumer spending.

10. A simultaneous downturn in the global economy is unlikely.

What do you think of other big banks?

Matejka's view is not shared by several of his well-known peers. Mike Mike Wilson, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, believes that from slowing corporate earnings growth to rising interest rates to rising inflation, the S & P 500 will break through its June low and fall at least 8 per cent from its current level sometime in the autumn. Wilson continues to advise investors to move into more defensive markets and has no objection to holding more cash than usual. According to Wilson, if the sell-off occurs, investors may be able to witness the start of a new bull market in 2023.

Goldman Sachs Group strategist David Kirstin (David Kostin) made a conservative forecast for the 2023 earnings of S & P 500 companies. Kirstin expects earnings per share in the s & p 500 to grow by just 3 per cent in 2023 (6 per cent had been expected), below analysts' forecasts of 7 per cent, and the downward revision reflects Kirstin's view of continued cost pressure on the company. He listed 67 companies as "vulnerable to profit reductions", including$T-Mobile US (TMUS.US) $、$Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.US) $、$Honeywell International Inc (HON.US) $、Electronic Arts (EA.US) $和Yum Restaurant (YUM.US) $And other household names and brands.

Given our economists' higher-than-consensus inflation forecasts, the prospect of higher real yields, and the restrictions on Fed policy imposed by soaring share prices that have eased financial conditions since the medium term, we expect the S & P 500 to have limited room to rise by the end of the year.