The current situation of the company
Great Wall Motor released July production and sales KuaiBao: July sales of 101920 vehicles, year-on-year + 11.3%, month-on-month + 0.7% menthol cumulative sales of 620445 vehicles from January to July,-12.6% year on year. The performance of production and sales in July was solid, which outperformed the industry in month-on-month comparison, of which Harvard sold 61279 vehicles, contributing a major increase in month-on-month growth.
Comment
In July, it outperformed the industry, and the Harvard brand contributed a month-on-month increase. From a brand point of view, Harvard sales in July were 61279, year-on-year + 7.1%, month-on-month + 19.5%. Among them, Harvard H6 / Big Dog sales were 27638 / 10610, respectively, + 16.1% and 13.5%, respectively. July WEY sales were 3034, year-on-year-24.3%, month-on-month + 5.1% quarter-on-month, July 25 blockbuster model latte DHT-PHEV officially launched, we think its pricing is more positive than previous Mocha and other models, or is expected to lead to incremental contribution; Euler July sales of 8829, year-on-year + 21.8%, month-on-month compared to-23.3%; tank brand sales of 12473, year-on-year + 128.0%, month-on-month-12.5% Among them, the tank 300x500 respectively sold 9955max 2518; pickup sales were 16305,-7.5% year-on-year, month-on-month-23.3%.
The proportion of high-value and intelligent products has increased steadily, and the cumulative overseas sales have exceeded one million. In the face of intelligence and high-end, the company's product matrix continued to improve; in July, the company's intelligent model sales accounted for 88.3% of vehicles over 200,000 yuan accounted for 15.2%, lemon / tank / coffee intelligent three major technology brands accounted for 75.8% of sales. In overseas markets, overseas sales of 14710 vehicles in July, + 18.3% from the same period last year, reached a new high for the year, and the cumulative overseas sales officially exceeded 1 million. So far, the company has exported to more than 170 countries and regions and has nearly 700 overseas sales channels. Officially entered a new stage of the globalization process. In July, the tank 300 was listed in Saudi Arabia, and the Malaysian sales company was officially established. We believe that overseas is expected to become an important incremental market for the company during the period of smart electric transformation.
2H22 new products blossom more, expect the tank brand to support profitability. The company sold a total of 620445 vehicles from January to July, corresponding to the company's sales target of 1.9 million vehicles in 2022, with a completion rate of 32.7%. Looking ahead, 2H22 has a rich reserve of new models, including Haverkus, Mechatron, Punk Cat and Lightning Cat, which are all planned to be launched this year, and we expect the Harvard brand's PHEV model to accelerate the launch, leading to a hybrid transformation; in addition, the beam car joint venture with BMW is also in steady progress. Looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe that the company will still strive to achieve a month-on-month increase in sales, while the tank brand order reserves are sufficient, with more room for volume than expected, which is an important basis to support the release of profits.
Profit forecast and valuation
The current A / H share price corresponds to 2022 40xpact E (deduction), maintains the outperform industry rating and profit forecast unchanged, maintains the A share target price of 45 yuan, and reduces the target price of Hong Kong stock by 15% to HK $17, respectively, corresponding to 2022 55amp 18 times Pmax E (deduction), which has 39.2% upside space compared with the current stock price.
Risk
Sales of new cars fell short of expectations; business and asset risks in Russia exceeded expectations.