Main points of investment
Lithium material equipment + production line contractor, the equipment self-supply rate is increasing, the company is about to usher in the performance inflection point the company has comprehensively transformed the lithium material equipment and production line general contractor since 2019, and is currently the only listed company of lithium material EPC. In 2021, the company realized revenue and return net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of-26 percent, 24 percent, and 2017-2021, respectively, the company's revenue and return net profit CAGR reached 15 percent. The self-supply rate of equipment superimposed by the delivery capacity of the scarce whole plant increased, and the performance is expected to enter a high growth stage.
The investment in the three main materials production lines of lithium electricity will reach 52% in the next three years, and the domestic single-point equipment merchants, chemical industry, industry alliance and materials go to sea to promote the expansion of lithium materials. In 2022, the investment in the production line of lithium cathode, negative electrode and electrolyte is 56.1 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 198.9 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR in three years is about 52%. Lithium materials market is mostly single-point equipment manufacturers, the whole line delivery manufacturers are very competitive.
With the delivery capacity of the scarce whole plant, the revenue of lithium power business accounts for more than 80%, and the self-supply rate of equipment continues to increase. In 2021, the company's revenue from lithium business accounted for more than 80%, and the self-supply rate of lithium equipment was about 40%. It is proposed to acquire 60% of shares in Suzhou and Wuxi, respectively, to make up for the shortcomings of positive and negative materials and equipment, and the equipment self-supply rate will gradually increase.
In 2021, the company accumulated 3.24 billion yuan in newly signed orders, including 2.34 billion yuan for lithium electricity orders (accounting for 72%).
Contract liabilities increased greatly compared with the same period last year, showing that the orders on hand were full, and the company's contract liabilities in 2021 were 750 million yuan, an increase of 567% over the same period last year, indicating that the orders on hand were full. From January to May in 2022, the company signed a new order of 980 million yuan for lithium electricity, and signed a new 1.37 billion yuan EPC contract with Haichuang Shangwei on June 15, and the order is expected to increase greatly compared with the previous year.
Looking ahead to lay out the new business of hydrogen fuel cell materials, from equipment to products to open the growth space, China's hydrogen fuel cell is in the period of commercial introduction. According to the company announcement, there will be more than 1 million fuel cell vehicles in 2030, bringing about 2640 million square meters of proton exchange membrane demand and a market space of 13.2 billion yuan. The company's holding subsidiary has laid out a proton exchange membrane production line for hydrogen fuel cells in Tongchuan, opening up room for growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 29.3 picks 3.97 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 182 percent 35 percent over the same period last year, and 25 percent year-on-year growth. The net profit of returning home will be 2.2 million yuan and 280 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 658 percent, 25 percent and 22 percent, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 3427Unix. The company's medium-and long-term performance has a lot of room for improvement, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1) major shareholder pledge risk; 2) lithium battery market is not as good as expected; 3) acquisition integration is not as expected.