Purchase analysis:
1. The issuance size of Meijin convertible bonds is 3.59 billion yuan, and the debt and main body rating is AA-/AA-; the conversion share price is 13.21 yuan, and the conversion value is 94.78 yuan as of April 15, 2022; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.43 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 18%, which belongs to the general level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 6.58% maturity yield of 6-year AA- bond enterprises on April 15, 2022, the bottom of the debt is 86.89 yuan, and the value of the pure debt is average. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 6.36%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 6.85%, and the dilution pressure on the existing equity is less.
two。 As of March 22, 2022, the company's largest shareholder, Meijin Energy Group Co., Ltd. held 46.21% of the total share capital, and the controlling shareholder did not promise to give priority to the placement. According to the new earnings and environment of the market at this stage, the size of the first day of placement is expected to be about 57%. The remaining online application for new debt is 1.544 billion yuan, because the upper limit for individual purchase is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1150 and 12.5 million, the expected success rate is about 0.0123%. 0.0134%.
3. The company's industry is coke processing (Shenwan III). From the point of view of valuation, as of April 15, 2022, the company's PE (TTM) is 23.56 times, which is at a high level among 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 53.464 billion yuan, which is at a higher level in the industry. As of April 15, 2022, the company's shares have fallen 22.86% so far this year, while the industry index has fallen 16.91%, and Wandequan A has fallen 16.91%. Since listing, the annualized volatility is 56.81%, and the stock is more flexible. At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 44.61%, and the risk of equity pledge is high. Other risk points: 1. Macroeconomic cycle risk; 2. Market competition aggravates risks; 3. The risk that the hydrogen energy market does not meet expectations; 4. Resource supply risk; 5. Policy risk of coking industry; 6. Policy risk of hydrogen energy industry; 7. Environmental policy risk.
4. Meijin convertible bonds have a large scale, the protection of the debt bottom is general, the parity is lower than the face value, the market may give a 25% premium, and the listing price is expected to be about 118 yuan. It is recommended to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.
