Purchase analysis:
1. The issue size of Central Zhuan 2 is 864 million yuan, and the debt and main body rating is AA-/AA-; the conversion share price is 7.47 yuan, and the conversion value is 89.16 yuan as of April 28, 2022; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.50 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 15%, which belongs to the higher level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 6.58% maturity yield of 6-year AA- bond enterprises on April 28, 2022, the bottom of the debt is 85.22 yuan, and the value of the pure debt is average. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 27.29%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 30.88%, the dilution pressure on the existing equity is greater.
two。 As of April 28, 2022, the top three shareholders of the company, Zhang Bozhong, Anhui Zhongchen Investment Holdings Co., Ltd., and Anhui High-tech Jintong Anyi Equity Investment Fund (Limited Partnership), respectively, accounted for 15.47%, 12.78% and 4.06% of the total share capital, respectively. The controlling shareholder did not promise priority placement. According to the current market income and environment, the size of the first day placement is expected to be about 72%. The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 242 million yuan, because the upper limit for individual purchase is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1150 and 12.5 million, the success rate is expected to be around 0.0019% and 0.0021%.
3. The company is in the industry of water Ⅲ (Shenwan level III). From the point of view of valuation, as of April 28, 2022, the company PE (TTM) is 13.11 times, which is at a low level among 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 2.822 billion yuan, which is at a lower level in the industry. As of April 28, 2022, the company's shares have fallen 21.95% this year, while the industry index has fallen 24.57%, and Wandequan A has fallen 24.57%. Since listing, the annualized volatility is 40.30%, and the stock is generally elastic. At present, the proportion of equity pledge of the company is 10.83%, which has a certain risk of equity pledge.
Other risk points: 1. Liquidity risk; 2. Customer concentration of risk; 3. Concentration of risk in business area; 4. Risk of collection of accounts receivable; 5. The management risk caused by the expansion of the company.
4. The scale of the Central transfer 2 is average, the debt bottom protection is general, the parity is lower than the face value, the market may give a 28% premium, the listing price is expected to be about 114 yuan, it is suggested to actively participate in the purchase of new debt.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.
