The tobacco industry has always had a very strong sticky consumption, especially in the well-regulated traditional tobacco industry, the long-term growth of the industry is self-evident. At present, with the development of new tobacco, FDA has gradually improved the new industry policy, and the market is expected to usher in new development.

It can be seen that Daniu stocks, which used to be dominated by traditional tobacco,$Philip Morris International Inc (PM.US) $It was also this year that the company's share price reached an all-time high.

With the arrival of the second quarter earnings season, the three major tobacco giants on the US stock market have revealed their latest results one after another. how is the industry now?

Philip Morris International Inc: global permeability increases steadily, strengthen the layout of atomized products

2022H1's overall revenue was $15.578 billion, up 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, according to the results. The revenue of the new tobacco was $4.617 billion, up 5.0% from the same period last year, accounting for 30.5% of the total revenue.

Of this total, 2022Q2's revenue is $7.832 billion.，Year-on-yearIncrease3.1%. The company's new growth poleThe revenue of the new tobacco is 2.267 billion US dollars.，Year-on-yearDrop0.4%，Accounted for 29.1% of total revenue.

The global penetration rate is rising steadily, and the shipment volume has reached a new high. As of 2022H1, the penetration rate of the heated non-combustible product IQOS in the world's major countries reached 7.5%, an increase of 1.2% over the same period last year, and the number of users reached 19 million, an increase of 20.5% over the same period last year to 3.2 million, of which the user conversion rate was 69.5%.

In terms of breakdown, shipments of 2022H1 heated non-combustible smoke bombs reached 49.6 billion (excluding Russia and Ukraine up 12.6% year-on-year), accounting for 0.95% to 16.2% of total shipments.

From a sub-regional point of view: in the core countries Japan / Italy / Russia / South Korea, the 2022H1 smoke bomb permeability in Japan / Italy / South Korea reached 23.0% 14.6% 6.2% respectively.

In emerging markets Germany / Poland / Spain / Philippines, shipments increased by 24.9% over the same period last year, respectively, by 52.3% and 71.2% by 31.0%.

Benefiting from the steady expansion of the global market, Philip Morris raised its annual shipments forecast to 90-92 billion units.

In terms of agency rating, of all the six agencies that participated in the rating, 3 brokerages gave buying advice, 3 brokerages gave holding advice, and no brokerage gave selling advice, with an average target price of $104.

$British American Tobacco PLC (BTI.US) $The new type of tobacco continues to grow rapidly, and the disposable small tobacco & HN is strengthened.B (heating does not burn)Overall Arrangement

According to the financial report, the overall income of 2022H1 British American Tobacco PLC is 12.869 billion pounds, of which the new tobacco contributes significantly, accounting for 1.283 billion pounds, accounting for 10.0% of the revenue.

2022H1 has 20.3 million new tobacco customers and 50 per cent year-on-year losses in its new tobacco business. Revenue is expected to reach £5 billion and profits are expected to be achieved in 2025, with total customers expected to reach 50 million by 2030.

In terms of subdivisionAtomizationProductIncreased market share, one-offAtomizationHigh product growth period。2022H1 atomization plate achieves revenue 6.17100 million pounds, with a shipment of 292 million pieces.，Year-on-yearIncrease18.6%。

The market share of the atomized product VUSE in the top five markets of the company is 34.7%, of which the market share of the United States / Canada / UK / France / Germany is 37.8% / 89.0% / 39.6% respectively. After excluding the influence of one-time atomization products, VUSE has a market share of 49.8% in major countries.

On the other hand, the 2022H1 heating non-combustible products segment achieved revenue of 497 million pounds, an increase of 44.2% year-on-year, and shipments of 11 million pieces, an increase of 30.4% over the same period last year.

Market analysis believes that as FDA grants the PMTA license to British American Tobacco PLC's atomized e-cigarette product Vuse, the company's product competitiveness will be significantly improved in the future, and thanks to policy protection, new competitors will have a certain threshold.

$Altria Group Inc (MO.US) $Juul, a new tobacco company invested by the company, has been sued and faces risks such as the lack of competitiveness of the next generation of products.

Revenue fell short of analysts' expectations and earnings per share exceeded analysts' expectations, according to the data.

In its latest earnings report, the company earned $1.26 a share on total revenue of $5.37 billion, while analysts expected revenue of $5.42 billion or $1.25 a share.

Gaurav Jain, an analyst at Barclays, says Altria Group Inc's business capacity is declining.

Jain told customers that Altria Group Inc's price-to-earnings ratio was much lower than that of her peers due to the lack of next-generation products, the lawsuit against JUUL, the growing competition brought about by Philip Morris International Inc's partnership with Swedish matches and the decline in revenue from traditional tobacco business.

He explained that Altria Group Inc is likely to cut his full-year performance forecast in the face of weak cigarette sales and increased pressure on profit margins. The company is now like a piece of 'melting ice', that is, it will enter an irreversible recession, so we think it makes sense that its price-to-earnings ratio is low.

In terms of institutional ratings, of all 10 agencies that participated in the rating, four brokerages gave buy advice, five brokerages gave holding advice, and one brokerage gave selling advice, with an average target price of $48.1.