With the acceleration of market-oriented reform, the company has entered a new stage of development and maintained a "buy" rating.
The total operating income in the first half of 2022 was 59.44 billion yuan, + 17.2% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 29.79 billion yuan, + 20.9% compared with the same period last year. The total revenue of 2022Q2 was 26.26 billion yuan, + 15.9% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 12.55 billion yuan, + 17.3% compared with the same period last year. The company's reform measures continue to move forward, and there is plenty of room for future growth. We maintain our profit forecast for 2022-2024. It is estimated that the net profit for 2022-2024 will be 62.06 billion yuan, 73.57 billion yuan and 86.06 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The EPS of + 18.3%, + 18.5% and + 17.0% respectively are 49.40,58.56,68.51 yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 38.8,32.7and 28.0 times respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
The "I Maotai" channel is growing rapidly, and the effect of channel reform shows that the income of 2022Q2 Maotai Liquor is 21.11 billion yuan, + 15.0% compared with the same period last year, and that of series liquor is 4.17 billion yuan, + 22.0% compared with the same period last year. 2022Q2 direct sales channel revenue by channel is 10.06 billion yuan, year-on-year + 112.9%, accounting for + 18.1pct to 39.8%, of which "I Maotai" achieved tax-free revenue of 4.42 billion yuan, which is mainly due to the growth of direct sales channels. Wholesale channel revenue of 15.21 billion yuan, year-on-year-10.8%, accounting for-18.1pct to 60.2%, mainly because dealers of zodiac products, treasures have part of the quota transferred to "I Maotai" sales. In the future, with the continuous increase of e-commerce platform SKU, the proportion of direct channels will further increase and accelerate the return of channel profits.
Under the background of the promotion of direct channels, the month-on-month change of advance receipts is less than that of 2022Q2 in the same period in 2021, the cash received by Q2 channels for selling goods and providing services is 29.67 billion yuan, which is + 6.1% compared with the same period last year. The main reason is that the quarter-end advance payment increases less than at the end of June 2021 under the background of Q2 channel reform. The contract debt at the end of June 2022 was 9.67 billion yuan, which was + 1.35 billion yuan at the end of March compared with the end of March.
The increase in Q2 gross profit margin, tax ratio and sales expense rate led to a slight decrease in 2022Q2 gross profit margin + 0.77pct to 91.78%, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of direct channels and the optimization of product structure. The rate of tax and surcharge + 2.86pct to 16.66%. The breakdown is mainly due to the increase in consumption tax, which should be caused by the increase in the production of finished goods. The sales expense rate + 0.53pct to 3.72% is mainly due to the increased promotion of the series of wines. Net interest rate under the combined effect of various fees-0.46pct to 51.95%. With the long-term optimization of product structure and channel structure, the scale effect appears, and the overall net interest rate is expected to show an upward trend.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, expansion outside the province is not as expected, etc.