Events:
On August 2, the company released its semi-annual report of 2022, with an operating income of 57.617 billion yuan (+ 17.38% compared with the same period last year) and a net profit of 29.794 billion yuan (+ 20.85% compared with the same period last year). 22Q2 achieved a revenue of 25.321 billion yuan (+ 16.06% compared with the same period last year) and a net profit of 125.49 yuan (+ 17.29% compared with the same period last year), which is consistent with the company's previously disclosed business situation and in line with expectations.
Investment Summary:
The series of liquor has become an important engine, while Maotai liquor has a steady increase and strong certainty. 22H1 produced 42500 tons of Maotai base liquor (+ 12.43% compared with the same period last year), with a revenue of 49.965 billion yuan (+ 16.33% compared with the same period last year) and 17000 tons of base liquor (+ 36% compared with the same period last year), with revenue of 7.598 billion yuan (+ 25.37% compared with the same period last year). The revenue share of series wines increased to 13.2% year-on-year, contributing more and more to the company's revenue growth.
Under the premise of income and profit growth, the proportion of costs and expenses decreased slightly, helping to further improve the net profit margin. 22H1's revenue / gross profit 1 / home net profit increased by 17.38%, 18.31%, 20.85%, respectively. It is estimated that the growth rate of 22Q2 revenue / gross profit / home net profit is 16.06%, 17.05%, 17.29%, respectively, and the company's revenue and profit have achieved good growth. The gross profit margin of 22H1 reached 91.78% (year-on-year + 0.77pct), of which the gross profit margin of 22Q1/Q2 increased by 0.69pct/0.77pct respectively compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to the optimization of the structure of the series of wines (such as the volume growth of Maotai 1935) and the increase in the proportion of direct sales. Although the sales expense rate slightly increased by 0.52 pct compared with the same period last year, the gross sales margin / return net profit margin increased 0.25pct/0.57pct respectively.
The payback is good, and the contract debt is higher than the previous month. In terms of cash flow, 22H1 sales returned 61.157 billion yuan 2, an increase of 21.66% over the same period last year, of which 22Q1/Q2 rebate was 31.488 billion yuan / 29.669 billion yuan, an increase of 41.2% and 6.08% respectively over the same period last year. The net cash flow of 22H1 operating activities is-1.116 billion yuan, and the difference between the net profit and the net profit mainly comes from the influence of the financial project cash flow of the company and the subsidiary company. 3, the cash flow of the company itself is healthy and steady. At the end of June, the contract liability was 9.669 billion yuan, an increase of 16.19% compared with the month-on-month at the end of March.
The new products are very popular, and the proportion of direct sales channels of companies such as Maotai has increased significantly. The company launched Humao, treasures Maotai, Maotai 1935, 100ml Feitian Maotai and other new products, sales momentum is good, improved the company's product price belt. "I Maotai" digital marketing platform launched, 22H1 has achieved alcohol income (excluding tax) 4.416 billion yuan, opened up a new online direct sales channel, the successful development of Maotai ice cream, the market response is enthusiastic. 22H1's direct sales channel achieved revenue of 20.949 billion yuan (year-on-year + 120.42%), wholesale agency channel revenue of 36.614 billion yuan (year-on-year-7.32%), and the proportion of direct sales channel revenue increased significantly by 17 percentage points to 36.4%.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 127.546 billion yuan, 149.046 billion yuan and 175.512 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 16.52%, 16.86% and 17.76%, and its net profit is 61.337 billion yuan, 716.97 yuan and 842.92 yuan respectively, corresponding to an increase of 16.92%, 16.89% and 17.57% respectively. The PE corresponding to the stock price on the reporting day is 38.61,33.03,28.09times respectively. With reference to the valuation level of high-end liquor, taking into account the strong operational stability and performance certainty of the company, the valuation level of the company is higher than that of other liquor enterprises, corresponding to the 22-year forecast net profit of 45 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 2197.24 yuan, given the "overweight" rating.
Risk hints: macroeconomic uncertainty, damage to liquor consumption demand, eco-environmental protection risk, food safety risk