2022Q2 total revenue / net profit year-on-year + 16% Universe 17%, the results are in line with the previous announcement. On the Q2 channel side, I Maotai significantly increased the proportion of direct sales to 40%; on the product side, Maotai 1935 is expected to account for about 40% of the series of wines, driving the upgrading of the series of liquor structure; on the production side, technological transformation creates natural increments for medium-and long-term production capacity. Be optimistic about the continuous release of the effectiveness of the company's reform and the landing of more market-oriented management measures, and maintain the "buy" rating.
2022H1 total revenue / net profit year-on-year + 17% Universe 21%, performance in line with the previous announcement. According to the company's semi-annual report for 2022, 2022H1 achieved a total operating income of 59.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year + 17.2%, and an attributable net profit of 29.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year + 20.8%, corresponding to a net interest rate of 50.1%, a year-on-year + 1.5pcts 2022Q2 achieved a total operating income of 26.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year + 15.9%, and an attributable net profit of 12.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year + 17.3%, corresponding to a net interest rate of 47.8% and a year-on-year + 0.6pct. The performance is in line with the previous announcement.
Series of wine structure upgrading-a significant increase in the proportion of direct sales revenue to drive the company to increase income and profits. The income of 2022H1 Maotai / series liquor is 49.97 billion / 7.6 billion yuan respectively, which is + 16.3% and 25.4% respectively compared with the same period last year. The corresponding income of 2022Q2 Maotai / series liquor is 21.11 billion / 4.17 billion yuan, which is + 15.0% and 22.0% compared with the same period last year. In terms of revenue share, 2022Q2 series wine revenue accounted for + 0.8pct to 16.5% compared with the same period last year, but the company's overall gross profit margin was + 0.8pct to 91.8%, and the net profit rate was affected by the increase in tax and additional share to + 0.6pct to 47.8%.
We believe that the company's realization of both revenue and profit is mainly due to:
1) the proportion of direct sales of Maotai liquor has further increased significantly, with both volume and price rising. 2022Q2's direct sales revenue was 10.06 billion yuan, an increase of 113% over the same period last year. Direct sales accounted for 39.8% of alcohol revenue, year-on-year + 18.1pcts, month-on-month + 6.1pcts. We estimate that Maotai liquor direct sales income is about 9.1 billion yuan, accounting for 43% of Maotai liquor revenue, year-on-year + 17.4pcts, month-on-month + 5.5pcts. The proportion of direct sales of Maotai liquor has increased. On the one hand, I Maotai was officially launched on March 31, and we estimate that Q2 contributed about 3.41 billion yuan to Maotai liquor revenue; on the other hand, offline stores realized Maotai liquor revenue of about 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of 21% over the same period last year. Q2 Maotai liquor distribution revenue growth rate of-12%, we judge that the main reduction is non-standard products. To sum up, we estimate that the volume and price of Q2 Maotai liquor will increase by 5%, 10%, and achieve a simultaneous increase in volume and price.
2) Maotai 1935 stably occupies the 1000-yuan price band and continues to increase volume, leading to the upgrading of the structure of the series of wines. We estimate that the revenue of 2022Q2 Maotai 1935 will exceed 1.5 billion yuan, while the revenue of other series of wines has a double-digit decline compared with the same period last year, which is due to the company's initiative to adjust the strategy of the series of wines on the one hand and the influence of the industry and epidemic on the other. It is estimated that 2022Q2 Maotai 1935 accounts for about 40% of the revenue in the series, leading to the upgrading of the series of wines.
The effect of technological transformation is prominent, and the production capacity is flexible. Without adding new design capacity, 2022H1 achieved an output of 42500 tons / 17000 tons of Maotai and series of base liquors respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 12.4% Universe 36.0%.
From the point of view of the projects under construction, as of 2022Q2, the Maotai liquor technical renovation projects have been completed, and most of the series of liquor technical renovation projects have been completed. During the 14th five-year Plan period, the company also plans to invest in more than 20 major projects in the core production area of 15.03 square kilometers and the Maotai industry agglomeration area of more than 10,000 mu of Chishui River Basin.
Recent approval prices continue to rise, and the pace of channel change is expected to be steady in the second half of the year. Recently, the market demand has been steadily rising. The epidemic situation in first-tier cities has improved and the selling psychology of dealers before the Mid-Autumn Festival has led to a continuous upward trend in wholesale prices. The price of box / bulk grass has respectively reached 3,220 hectare 2800 yuan, an increase of about 180x80 yuan respectively compared with the end of June. In the second half of the year, we are still optimistic about the increase in volume and price brought about by the company's channel change and product structure upgrading, but considering the short-term volume effect after I Maotai goes online, combined with the recent reduction in the number of Humao gift boxes to about 500 sets, we judge that the pace of channel change of the company in the second half of the year is relatively steady, accounting for about 35% of the expected direct sales revenue for the whole year.
Risk factors: macroeconomic recovery is not as expected; local epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations; food safety problems; the implementation of the company's strategy is not as expected; the price increase of the company's products is not as expected; new product sales or marketing results are not as expected.
Investment advice: the company reported outstanding performance, and the results of the reform are remarkable. We maintain the company's forecast revenue of 127.1 billion / 142.9 billion / 161.2 billion yuan in 2022-24, 12.8% in 2022-24 compared with the same period last year, and maintain the vested net profit forecast as 62.2 billion / 70.3 billion / 79.6 billion yuan. Year-on-year + 18.6% lead "12.9% Universe" 13.3%, corresponding to the 2022-24 EPS of 49.54 million 55.9553.39 yuan. Optimistic about the company's high short-term certainty and medium-and long-term reform dividends under the deep brand moat, and maintain the "buy" rating.