Purchase analysis:
1. Fengshan convertible bonds issued 500 million yuan, the debt and the main body rating is AA-/AA-; the conversion share price is 13.8 yuan, and the conversion value is 100.8 yuan as of June 24, 2022; the arithmetic average of each year's coupon is 1.40 yuan, and the maturity compensation interest rate is 15%, which belongs to the higher level of newly issued convertible bonds. According to the discount rate of 6.43% maturity yield of 6-year AA- bond enterprises on June 24, 2022, the bottom of the debt is 85.48 yuan, and the value of the pure debt is average. Other game provisions are market-oriented terms, if all the conversion of the dilution pressure on the total equity is 22.32%, the dilution pressure on the circulating equity is 22.77%, the dilution pressure on the existing equity is greater.
two。 As of June 24, 2022, the top three shareholders of the company, Yin Fengshan, Yin Ping and Chen Yafeng, respectively held shares accounting for 41.72%, 5.08% and 3.03% of the total share capital, and the controlling shareholders did not promise priority placement. According to the current market income and environment, the size of the first day placement is expected to be about 76%. The remaining amount of new debt applied for online is 120 million yuan, because the upper limit for individual household purchase is 1 million yuan. Assuming that the number of online purchase accounts is between 1050 and 11.5 million, the success rate is expected to be around 0.0010% muri 0.0011%.
3. The company is in an industry of pesticides (Shenwan III). From the point of view of valuation, as of June 24, 2022, the company's PE (TTM) is 23.80 times, which is at a higher level among 10 enterprises with similar income, with a market capitalization of 2.258 billion yuan, which is at a lower level in the industry. As of June 24, 2022, the company's stock has risen 3.72% so far this year, while the industry index has fallen 11.00% and Wandequan A has fallen 11.00%. Since listing, the annualized volatility is 37.88%, and the stock is generally elastic.
At present, the proportion of equity pledge is 19.42%, which has a certain risk of equity pledge. Other risk points:
1. Environmental protection and production safety risks; 2. Risk of supply and price fluctuation of major raw materials; 3. Market competition, product sales price change and operating performance, gross profit margin fluctuation risk; 4. Operation and management risks caused by scale expansion; 5. Risks related to fund-raising projects; 6. The risk of industrial policy change; 7. The risk of new product development and the risk of main products being replaced, etc.
4. The scale of Fengshan convertible bonds is small, the debt bottom protection is general, the parity is higher than the face value, the market may give a 25% premium, the listing price is expected to be about 126 yuan, it is recommended to actively participate in the purchase of new bonds.
Risk hints: the risk of default, the risk that the price of convertible bonds fluctuates or even falls below par value, the risk that convertible bonds cannot be converted into shares at maturity, the risk of diluting earnings per share and return on net assets, the related risks of this convertible bond into equity, the risk of credit rating change, the risk of fluctuation of positive shares, and the premium of listed earnings is lower than expected.