Maotai publishes its annual report for 22 years. In the first half of 22, the revenue was 57.62 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 29.79 billion yuan, an increase of 20.8% over the same period last year, with earnings per share of 23.72 yuan per share. 2Q22's revenue and net profit were 25.32 billion yuan and 12.55 billion yuan respectively, with revenue up 16.1% and net profit up 17.3% over the same period last year. The contract debt of 1H22 is 9.67 billion yuan, an increase of 1.35 billion yuan over 1Q22. The company's new senior management team is determined to forge ahead and has plenty of base liquor production capacity, which is expected to continue to exceed the target plan and maintain the buy rating in 2022-2023.
Support the main points of rating
2Q22 revenue increased by 16.1%, slightly lower than the 1Q21 growth rate, and the proportion of direct sales increased significantly. (1) 1H22 Maotai liquor revenue increased 16% compared with the same period last year. Maotai liquor revenue increased 15% in the second quarter. The consumption scene of high-end liquor is relatively less affected by the epidemic, and the channel has strong absorptive capacity. Taking into account the rise in the proportion of direct sales and the higher pricing of treasures, 100ml Feitian put on the market, product prices may rise slightly faster than sales. The price of 2Q22 Sanmao is 2700-2800 yuan, which has little change compared to 1Q22, and the terminal demand is relatively strong. (2) the proportion of 1H22 direct sales continues to rise, with revenue of 20.95 billion yuan, an increase of 120.4% over the same period last year, accounting for an increase in 17pct, of which 2Q22 revenue is 10.06 billion yuan, an increase of 112.9% over the same period last year, accounting for an increase in 18pct. (3) the revenue of 1H22 series wine increased by 25% compared with the same period last year, of which 2Q22 was 22% year-on-year, which was faster than that of Maotai Liquor. Maotai 1935, a new product, was put on the market with strong demand and brought increment. The number of dealers at the end of the report period was 2084, a decrease of 5, indicating that the company's channel system has become stable. (4) the contract debt of 1H22 is 9.67 billion yuan, an increase of 1.35 billion yuan over 1Q22, which is lower than that of 3.9 billion yuan in the same period. Considering that the profit of Maotai liquor channel is higher, the fluctuation of contract debt is mainly affected by the company's payment policy and has nothing to do with terminal demand.
The new senior management team is determined to forge ahead and has plenty of base liquor production capacity, which is expected to continue to exceed the target plan in 2022-2023. (1) after the new chairman took office, all kinds of reform measures continued to be introduced, and new products and new channels were launched. In the first half of the year, many positive changes have taken place in the company's management level. New products such as treasures, 1935 and 100ml Feitian have been put on the market, and the "I Maotai" digital marketing platform has been officially launched, which has successfully developed Maotai ice cream and enhanced the popularity of the Maotai brand. (2) according to the company's base liquor production, the base liquor from 2022 to 2023 is very abundant, which is obviously better than that in the past two years. The output of base liquor in 2017 and 2018 was as high as 4.28 and 49700 tons, which increased significantly for two consecutive years. According to the five-year base liquor storage cycle, the base liquor available on the market from 2022 to 2023 will be very abundant. (3) according to the commendation meeting of Maotai Liquor Dealers in July, "I Maotai", which has only been online for more than three months, has achieved remarkable results. At present, the number of registered users of the platform has reached 19 million, the average daily active users are nearly 2 million, and the revenue is 4.6 billion yuan.
Valuation
It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 49.61,58.04,67.42 yuan respectively, an increase of 19%, 17% and 16% over the same period last year.
Main risks faced by rating
The spread of the epidemic and economic fluctuations affect terminal demand.