Guojin Securities released a research report that new energy vehicles have entered a period of rapid development, power battery shipments are expected to achieve rapid growth, which can play a strong role in driving the key raw materials upstream. Among them, conductive carbon black: domestic enterprises are expected to quickly occupy the supply gap market, long-term import substitution, product competition pattern will still maintain a relatively good level in the short and medium term. PVDF: the demand side continues to grow, lithium-grade products with technical and customer certification requirements, medium-and short-term still have a good boom. Recommended concerns: black Cat shares (002068.SZ), Yongdong shares (002753.SZ), Dongyue Group (00189), Juhua shares (600160.SH), Goldstone Resources (603505.SH).
The main points of Guojin Securities are as follows:
Under the "double carbon" policy, new energy vehicles have entered a period of rapid development, and the shipment of power batteries is expected to achieve rapid growth. It is expected that the compound growth rate of demand in the next few years will be close to 50%, which can play a strong role in driving the key raw materials and auxiliary materials upstream.
As the mainstream conductive agent, the PVDF demand of conductive carbon black and positive binder will benefit from the new energy sector and achieve rapid growth at the same time. Considering that the industry itself has a high technical threshold and construction certification cycle, the product pattern of lithium conductive carbon black is relatively good, which can maintain the competitive pattern for a long time, and domestic enterprises are expected to have a relatively sufficient domestic substitution window. Lithium-grade PVDF requires technology and customer certification, and there are relatively many new capacity plans, but it is still difficult to supply large quantities of lithium-grade PVDF in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a relatively good profitability of the products in the medium term.
Conductive carbon black: domestic enterprises are expected to quickly occupy the supply gap market, long-term import substitution, product competition pattern will still maintain a relatively good level in the short and medium term.
Driven by the demand for new energy batteries downstream, superimposed the mainstream position of conductive carbon black in the conductive agent, the future demand growth is expected to be more than 50%; the supply side of new overseas capacity release lag, the supply gap significantly pushed up product prices. Considering that the industry has a high-tech threshold and a long certification cycle, it is expected that the current situation that supply falls short of demand will continue. Domestic enterprises have a better space for domestic substitution, and product profits will also maintain a relatively good level.
PVDF: the demand side continues to grow, lithium-grade products with technical and customer certification requirements, medium-and short-term still have a good boom.
Benefiting from the impact of the increased demand for positive binders for downstream power batteries, it is estimated that the compound growth rate of lithium-grade PVDF demand in the next four years is close to 50%, and the demand for lithium-grade products is expected to be close to 100000 tons in 2025. On the supply side, taking into account the relatively long cycle of new production capacity, different application areas of product production process control is different, different manufacturers of different customer base, production to meet the requirements of lithium products still need experience and running-in, so capacity planning is relatively more, but the real release will take time, so with the improvement of downstream demand for lithium power, it is expected that PVDF still has a good degree of prosperity in the short and medium term.
Risk Tips:The shipments of power batteries are less than expected, the new capacity is higher than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the replacement risk brought by technology change.