Hot news

• The US ISM manufacturing industry hit a two-year low in July, while the price payment index hit a two-year low and the biggest decline since 2010.

Data released by ISM showed that the US manufacturing sector continued to cool in July, when the ISM manufacturing index hit a two-year low, new orders shrank for the second month in a row, and overlay inventories increased, causing factories to reduce production. In addition, the price payment index hit a two-year low, the biggest drop since 2010, driven by falling crude oil and metals prices. The US Markit manufacturing PMI fell from 52.3 to 52.2 in July, a two-year low, mainly due to the first decline in the production index in two years and a two-month decline in new orders. Although input prices rose again in mid-July, the rate of cost inflation was the lowest since March last year.

• The US Treasury raised its quarterly borrowing forecast to $444 billion

The US Treasury raised its forecast for federal borrowing in the three months to September as the Fed's shrinking schedule increased its demand for private sector financing. Quarterly borrowing estimates were raised by about $262 billion to $444 billion, compared with the original estimate of $182 billion, and the forecast for the cash balance at the end of September remained unchanged at $650 billion, according to a press release issued by the Treasury on Monday. The change reflects that the Treasury did not assume that the Fed would scale back its holdings of Treasuries in May. The Fed's contraction began in June, before it was officially announced. Treasury officials said another reason for the sharp increase in borrowing estimates was a change in forecasts for federal revenue. Budget revenues reached record levels last quarter, but officials said the latest signs were falling revenues and rising spending.

• UBS: the average probability of the US economy falling into recession has risen sharply to 40%

UBS analysts believe that the U. S. economic recession and the ensuing risks of investment in U. S. stocks have both risen. Three models used by UBS's global macro strategy team after the release of US economic data in July show that the average probability of the US economy falling into recession has risen sharply from 12 per cent at the end of May to 40 per cent now.

• The state of Illinois declared a public health emergency because of monkeypox.

On August 1, local time, Governor Pritzker of Illinois declared a public health emergency because of the monkeypox epidemic in the state. Pritzker also said that monkeypox is a rare but potentially serious disease that requires the full mobilization of all available public health resources to respond to the current epidemic. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are currently more than 5000 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the United States and 520 in Illinois, second only to New York and California.

• The cooling situation of US house prices surpasses the financial crisis! The increase slowed to the biggest extent since 1970.

The annual increase in house prices slowed to 17.3 per cent in June from 19.3 per cent in may, according to Black Knight, a provider of mortgage software, data and analysis, the biggest cooling ever recorded and far more cooling than second: during the 2007-2009 US real estate recession, prices cooled by 1.19 per cent in a single month.

• On Monday, Brent crude closed down 3.8%, while US WTI crude fell 4.8%.

As of the close of the day, light crude oil for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.73 U.S. dollars, or 4.80 percent, to close at 93.89 U.S. dollars per barrel, while London Brent crude for October delivery fell 3.94 U.S. dollars, or 3.79 percent, to close at 100.03 U.S. dollars a barrel.

• Keep your promise to the United States? Media say Saudi Arabia will push OPEC+ to increase production this week.

According to media sources, during Biden's visit last month, Saudi Arabia promised him that it would push OPEC+ to expand its production. But the market will not know what will happen until the results of the OPEC+ meeting are released on Wednesday.

Review of US stocks

• Us stocks ended three Lianyang, and New Energy Automobile stocks rose collectively.

On the first trading day of August, U. S. stocks collectively ended three consecutive days of gains. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 11.66 points, or 0.28%, to 4118.63. The Dow closed down 46.73 points, or 0.14%, at 32798.40. The Nasdaq closed down 21.71 points, or 0.18%, at 12368.98. After the release of the delivery data, Wei Xiaoli, a general new energy vehicle stock, rose against the market, with Li Auto Inc. leading the way.

• IPhone14 Pro may upgrade OLED screen, non-Pro series will use the previous generation material.

$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Different levels of OLED panels will be used between the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Pro to further distinguish between the two models. According to reports, Samsung, Apple Inc's screen supplier, will use more advanced materials on the iPhone 14 Pro model, while the iPhone 14 will stick to the previous generation of materials. The iPhone 14 Pro screen material set is the same as the OLED material set used in Samsung's upcoming foldable flagship product.

• Apple Inc is said to issue $5.5 billion in bonds to fund share buybacks and dividends

Monday, local time (August 1)$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $Four tranches of senior unsecured bonds will be issued with maturities of 2029, 2032, 2052 and 2062, respectively, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As of press time, Apple Inc has not yet announced the specific size and interest rate of the bond issue. However, according to media reports citing sources, Apple Inc will issue bonds with a total value of 5.5 billion US dollars. The proceeds from the bond sale will be used for general corporate purposes, including share buybacks and the payment of dividends. It is reported that JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs Group and Bank of America Corporation will be in charge of the bond sale.

• Intel Corp will launch WiFi7 in 2024, and Apple Inc is gradually transitioning to WiFi6E.

According to ETNews,$Intel Corp (INTC.US) $It is planned to introduce the next generation wireless network technology, WiFi7 (802.11be), into the equipment by 2024. Intel Corp predicts that the application of WiFi7 will expand. It will expand product applications through advanced technologies such as high-end games, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and robots, and strengthen its penetration into the WiFi market. WiFi7, the successor to WiFi6E (802.11ax), can take full advantage of high-performance 5GHz and 6GHz bands, resulting in twice the data throughput and supporting data processing speeds up to 36Gbps. At the same time, Apple Inc is also on the cusp of the transition period of WiFi6E.

• The Estee Lauder Companies Inc Group is said to be in talks to acquire Tom Ford, which may be worth more than 3 billion US dollars.

According to the media, people familiar with the matter are quoted$The Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL.US) $It is in talks to buy luxury brand Tom Ford in a deal worth more than $3 billion, which could be the largest acquisition in the group's history. The Estee Lauder Companies Inc Group, headquartered in New York, mainly sells skin care products, cosmetics and perfumes, including MAC, Clinique, LA MER and so on. The company has a market capitalization of nearly $100 billion and has the necessary funds to conduct such transactions.

• Boeing Co's share price closed up more than 6%, the highest since April 27th.

Monday local time$Boeing Co (BA.US) $The share price closed up 6.13%, the highest since April 27. Earlier, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) confirmed preliminary approval for Boeing Co's plan to resume delivery of the 787Dreamliner. Delivery of the aircraft has stalled since production problems were discovered at the end of 2020. According to people familiar with the matter, the latest regulatory trends do not mean that delivery can be started immediately. Boeing Co still needs to meet the regulatory rectification requirements and pass the inspection.

• The new game of call of Duty is weak, and Activision Blizzard's revenue fell 15% in the second quarter, still higher than expected.

After Monday's trading, well-known game companiesActivision Blizzard (ATVI.US) $The second-quarter results were released. According to the data, Activision Blizzard Q2 had revenue of $1.64 billion, down about 28% from $2.3 billion in the same period last year; net profit of $280 million, down from $876 million in the same period last year; and adjusted earnings per share of $0.48, down from $1.20 a share in the same period last year. In a challenging economic environment, Activision Blizzard's developers grew 25% year-on-year, partly due to the acquisition of gaming company Proletariat and Sweden's AI company Peltarion.

• Elliott Fund announced as the largest shareholder, Pinterest rose more than 21% in after-hours trading

$Pinterest (PINS.US) $In the second quarter, the adjusted EPS was 11 cents, and analysts expected 14 cents; revenue was 666 million dollars, analysts expected 665.5 million dollars; and the number of monthly active users in the second quarter was 433 million, higher than analysts' expectations of 429.1 million. After the announcement of the results, Elliot Management, one of the world's largest activist funds, announced that it had become its largest shareholder, and Pinterest US stocks rose by more than 21% in after-hours trading.

Yesterday's turnover of US stocks TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

• Beishui substantially increased Tencent's position of nearly 1.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, selling Xiexin Technology and Kuaishou Technology.

On Monday, southbound funds bought a net HK $3.316 billion. Among them, Tencent, Hang Seng Chinese Enterprises and Geely Automobile ranked among the top three in net purchases, with net purchases of HK $1.871 billion, HK $623 million and HK $413 million respectively.

In terms of net sales, Xiexin Technology, Kuaishou Technology-W and Pop Mart International received net sales of HK $268 million, HK $247 million and HK $149 million respectively.

• XPeng Inc. delivered 11500 vehicles in July, an increase of 43% over the same period last year, and the new flagship SUV model XPeng Inc. G9 plans to be officially launched in September.

$XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) $Announce its vehicle delivery data for July 2022. XPeng Inc. delivered 11524 smart electric vehicles in July 2022, up 43 per cent from a year earlier. The company delivered a total of 80507 smart electric vehicles in the first seven months of 2022, an increase of 108% over the same period last year. By the end of July 2022, the company has delivered nearly 220000 vehicles in its history. Deliveries in July 2022 include 6397 XPeng Inc. smart coupe P7, 3608 smart home sedan P5 and 1519 G3i smart SUV. XPeng Inc. will start booking his new flagship SUV model, the XPeng Inc. G9, in August and plans to launch it in September 2022.

• Li Auto Inc. delivered 10422 ideal ONE vehicles in July, and the cumulative bookings of the ideal L9 have exceeded 50, 000.

$Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $It was announced that the company will deliver 10422 ideal ONE vehicles in July 2022, an increase of 21.3% over the same period last year. Since its launch in 2019, the cumulative delivery volume of ideal ONE has reached 194913. Court Intelligence flagship SUV ideal L9 has received positive feedback from users since it was released on June 21, with cumulative bookings exceeding 50, 000.

• NIO Inc. delivered 10052 cars in July, an increase of 26.7% over the same period last year.

$NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK) $It is announced that NIO Inc. will deliver 10052 cars in July 2022, an increase of 26.7% over the same period last year. The deliveries include 7579 high-end smart electric SUV and 2473 high-end smart electric cars. NIO Inc. 's cumulative car delivery volume reached 227949 as of July 31, 2022. The production of ET7 and EC6 in July 2022 is limited by the supply of die castings. The company has worked closely with supply chain partners and expects to accelerate vehicle production in the following months of the third quarter of 2022.

• Yingxi of Stone four Pharmaceutical Group: it is expected that the medium-term net profit will increase by 95% over the same period last year.

$Stone four Pharmaceutical Group (02005.HK) $It is announced that the profit attributable to equity holders of the company for the six months ended June 30, 2022 is expected to increase significantly from HK $276 million in the same period in 2021 to between 95% and 110%.

• Zhongsheng Group: eight used car centers, including Southwest, East and South China, have been put into operation.

$Zhongsheng Group (00881.HK) $According to the announcement, the board of directors is pleased to announce that in line with the national used car development policy, the group will distribute used car centers ("UCC") nationwide. At present, eight UCC including Southwest, East China and South China have been put into operation.

• Duan Yongping said that he bought 100000 shares of Tencent ADR.

Duan Yongping, a well-known investor, said he bought 100000 shares at a price of $37.37.$Tencent (ADR) (TCEHY.US) $（$Tencent (00700.HK) $). That is, 3.7 million US dollars, or about 25.3 million yuan.

Focus today

Key words: RBA interest rate resolution, Chicago Fed President Evans delivered a speech; Activision Blizzard, BP P.L.C. earnings report

Tuesday,Economic dataThe RBA will announce interest rate decisions, as well as JOLTs job openings in the United States.

In the July 22-28 survey, 32 of the 34 economists surveyed predicted that the RBA would raise its cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.85%. This will be the first time that the RBA has raised interest rates by 50 basis points at three consecutive meetings since the introduction of cash rates in 1990. The other two economists expect a bigger rate hike of 65 or 75 basis points.

In terms of events, Evans hosted a media breakfast, and investors need to pay attention to his latest remarks on the economy and the Fed's monetary policy.

In terms of financial results, US stocks$BP P.L.C. (BP.US) $、$S&P Global Inc. (SPGI.US) $、$UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC (UBER.US) $The results will be released before U. S. stocks open on Aug. 2. In addition, Buffett's new love stock$Western Oil (OXY.US) $, and$Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD.US) $、$PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL.US) $The results will be released after U. S. stocks closed on Aug. 2.

On July 27, 2022, Western Petroleum announced that it would pay a regular quarterly dividend of $0.13 per common share to shareholders of record as of October 17, 2022. In addition, the average target price for western oil companies is $74.92, ranging from $90.00 to $58.00, according to 12 analysts who have provided price forecasts for the coming year in the last three months. According to Goldman Sachs Group analyst Neil Mehta, Western oil companies continue to hold attractive free cash flow prospects.

Niuniu morning reading:

Investing is not a game in which people with an IQ of 160 can beat people with an IQ of 130. Reason is essential.

Warren Buffett's Buffett Securities Investment Act